The Coming Crash (no later than 1H2012)?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424...51738.html

Just something to share as I feel Singapore policy is very much similar to the one adopted by the Swiss; except instead of cheaper cities, locals are booted to hdb. Property going up and never coming down is a possibility.

(18-09-2011, 09:42 AM)piggo Wrote: Property going up and never coming down is a possibility.

Pig san, no truth lar, ppty go-up never come down...
when supply overtakes demand and rising interest rate, these 2 simple logic enough to crash pro-market.....But in land scare cities like Shanghai, HK and S'pore..its always follow this pattern, the next high will be overtakes the previous high, simple reason...inflation induce higher ppty prices.

Facts:
1. Land cost is rising...GLS is going at $600 PSF for mass market condo
2. Material cost increase...Cement price at it peak.
3. Labour cost increase...S-pass gg to raise to $2300 min salary for foreign worker...ah neh and ah tiong is dashing into this little red dot,50% chance to get rich, frankly this is fact...ask those who eligible to purchase flat.
4. Average inflation gg at 5%.
5. Population increase, though unpopular but still open at a moderate rate.

I cannot rule out a deep deep correction (economic downturn) in the next 6-9 months. Obama is a puppet dun think he will get re-elected..Euro not much hope....so how? either print more money or go bust, default all loans..like Argentina. But both scenario will lead to different consequences.
If US activate QE3, then those with stand-by cash, will be eroded and eaten away by inflation.

My advice to my daughter, who not even has a CDP account, her 5 figures cash is sitting in the bank FD, always ask me which bank paid the highest interest, she is eager to enter to ppty market now, BUT I told her only 1 word....'WAIT'

If market crash say worse than the one in late 2008, swee your cash will be very useful, lelong lelong can buy cheap ppty and cheap stocks...so play safe keep cash and wait....any possibility STI drops to 2500 pts? yes...if below 2400 pts, confirm recession......anyway if stock market dun crash , then by 2013 you might have accumulated enough fund to acquire cheap ppty without taking loan...so based-on the current situation my take ppty price might correct 15%-20% (not crash) by 2013/14....but in next 2 yrs we dunno wat will happen.

Uh its a true case study... Attracting MNCs, the wealthy, low taxes, limited built up area -> high property prices. Just that because singapore does not have alternate cheap cities or real suburbs to banish the less wealthy, they need to create a niche for less endowed folks. Not saying property here will never go down, but just a case (at the other end of the spectrum) to note considering the governments direction?

(19-09-2011, 08:05 AM)piggo Wrote: Uh its a true case study... Attracting MNCs, the wealthy, low taxes, limited built up area -> high property prices. Just that because singapore does not have alternate cheap cities or real suburbs to banish the less wealthy, they need to create a niche for less endowed folks. Not saying property here will never go down, but just a case (at the other end of the spectrum) to note considering the governments direction?

Unlike other cities in the world, Singapore is a rather unique country with a public housing developer that dominates the market. The public housings are good alternatives to private housings and for the last few years, they provide good returns to owners.
That also creates a dilemma to the government. They can sell cheaper but it also means that people will exploit it and use it as a stepping stone to private housing or instant cash after 5 years.
If they sell closer to the market price, it will create unhappiness as the price will be too exorbitant to low income families which is happening now.

Maybe one day HDB will really give up and decide to make public flat a real public flat with no resale option.

Gov should rebate part of the land price into the CPF account of HDB owners as long they lived in the HDB flat that they owned. That should have solve part of the problem of low CPF savings among the low income families.

Europe's four big dilemmas
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14934728

Pity the Greeks
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14972539

Greece 'should not be eurozone debt crisis scapegoat'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14969034

Do spend 40 mins to check out this video ...

http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/vide...ode=C9AE-1

Hello from Athens,

I just got my notice from our tax consultants that I have to pay extra x,xxx euros retroactively for last year's pay. Normally our taxes are deducted straight from our salary. Now things so bad they change rules backwards - like that also can!?

"GST" in Athens is now 23%, and for essential food stuffs its 13%. At least in Singapore we pay; but we can see the benefits.

If I Greek, I also go on strike! The pain for the man in the street is real. But for business owners and self-employed professionals, there are loop holes to take advantage of.

Having said that, I think Singaporeans are very "disciplined". I remember during the 87 rececession, our employer CPF got slashed from 25% to 10%. Not a small amount but not a single street protest!? I was serving NS in 1987. I think that's the competitive advantage of Singapore! No? We pull together as one?

I miss the "low" taxes in Singapore! Thank goodness I am coming back in 3 months' time.

Now I appreciate a lot what we have in Singapore.

Grateful.

'Dr. Strangelove' and the euro 'Doomsday Machine'
http://business.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/22...?hpt=hp_c1


Eurozone business shrinks for first time in two years
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15016916


Twisting in the wind?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15013289


Greece Debt Crisis: Have the Cuts Gone Too Deep?
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0...62,00.html

(22-09-2011, 08:11 PM)Jared Seah Wrote: Hello from Athens,

I just got my notice from our tax consultants that I have to pay extra x,xxx euros retroactively for last year's pay. Normally our taxes are deducted straight from our salary. Now things so bad they change rules backwards - like that also can!?

"GST" in Athens is now 23%, and for essential food stuffs its 13%. At least in Singapore we pay; but we can see the benefits.

If I Greek, I also go on strike! The pain for the man in the street is real. But for business owners and self-employed professionals, there are loop holes to take advantage of.

Having said that, I think Singaporeans are very "disciplined". I remember during the 87 rececession, our employer CPF got slashed from 25% to 10%. Not a small amount but not a single street protest!? I was serving NS in 1987. I think that's the competitive advantage of Singapore! No? We pull together as one?

I miss the "low" taxes in Singapore! Thank goodness I am coming back in 3 months' time.

Now I appreciate a lot what we have in Singapore.

Grateful.

Hi Jared "SMOL" Seah,

It's pretty interesting to be on the ground! Given the high taxes on consumption and income, have there been any underground economies developing?

I'm actually sure they have, I'm just wondering in what ways have they developed? e.g. People start to grow food in their backyard on their rooftops etc.

(22-09-2011, 08:11 PM)Jared Seah Wrote: Hello from Athens,

I just got my notice from our tax consultants that I have to pay extra x,xxx euros retroactively for last year's pay. Normally our taxes are deducted straight from our salary. Now things so bad they change rules backwards - like that also can!?

"GST" in Athens is now 23%, and for essential food stuffs its 13%. At least in Singapore we pay; but we can see the benefits.

If I Greek, I also go on strike! The pain for the man in the street is real. But for business owners and self-employed professionals, there are loop holes to take advantage of.

Having said that, I think Singaporeans are very "disciplined". I remember during the 87 rececession, our employer CPF got slashed from 25% to 10%. Not a small amount but not a single street protest!? I was serving NS in 1987. I think that's the competitive advantage of Singapore! No? We pull together as one?

I miss the "low" taxes in Singapore! Thank goodness I am coming back in 3 months' time.

Now I appreciate a lot what we have in Singapore.

Grateful.

Jared, the tax i have to pay in Taiwan is quite horrific. Is like skinning me alive every may. The tax bracket can goes up to 40%. American Millionaires pay peanut rate and they still dare to complain about unfair class taxes.

Cory