Noble Group

How come book value of the 4 UK power firms is us 7.6 million but noble is able to sell at us 91.6 million?

Reported by straits times.

It is USD 23M + an unknown amount of additional consideration of which value is unknown at this time.
Did not follow noble at all so cant be sure why the NTA is so low, maybe the goodwill had been written off/the plant had been depreciated to this point or something. Some experts here can shed some light.

One thing for sure, if they really sold something for USD 23M + $X when they acquired it at book value, they would not be in such a dire situation today. What they clearly lacked is prudence.

Yancoal is market cap A$477m from less than A$100m in Sep when Noble hit rock bottom

(Bloomberg) -- Yancoal is nearing an agreement to buy stake in Rio Tinto’s Hunter Valley Operations for ~A$3b, people with knowledge of the matter said.
An announcement could come as soon as Tuesday, the people said, asking not to be identified as details are private
A spokesman for Rio Tinto declined to comment
Representatives for Yancoal and its Chinese parent company, Yanzhou Coal, didn’t immediately answer phone calls seeking comment

(13-10-2016, 03:29 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Perhaps reading this will put in better context what is happening in the LBO background than just the numbers:
http://in.reuters.com/article/yancoal-se...T120141110

"Most of the funds raised will be used to repay existing debt owed to Yanzhou, effectively refinancing short-term debt into long-term debt. The debt is the legacy of Yanzhou's A$3.5 billion acquisition of Felix Resources in 2009 at the height of the coal boom and its takeover of Gloucester Coal in 2011."

In short Noble thought they could swim with the chinese sharks

http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-457-p...#pid107256

The news triggered a response from Noble. Mr. Market has reacted accordingly...

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Voluntar...eID=439017

---
Exclusive: China's Sinochem in early talks to buy stake in Noble Group - sources
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-noble-...ompanyNews

https://iceberg-research.com/2017/02/24/...me-people/

Getting very interesting! Timed to halt the recent run up in price.

Quote from iceberg

"In June, 2016, Mr Elman announced he would step down within 12 months. But two months later, Mr Elman clarified he “will not quit until we have restored value”. This is not going to happen. The FT reported that in an internal email, he planned to be around for “the next 50 years”. He is 76 years old. "

This is gold
I am beginning to like this Mr Elman character.
"I will quit...wait I will not quit, I may quit if company is well again. On 2nd thought I stay on for good and be an immortal"

I briefly go thru the report. No new stuff, but has reiterated on the same issues. A noise indeed.

The end-year report will be announced on coming Monday 27 Feb

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/SGXAnnou...eID=440744

An improved result from Noble Group.

1) Cashflow is now much stronger through a strong and positive operating cash flow generated before WC changes for FY 16. While after adjustments for WC, Noble indeed is weaker, but this is expected given the accumulating trade payable Noble did over the years; eventually it has to be repaid.

2) Noble's debt has reduced probably due to the bank's asking for a partial repayment ffrom the iceberg saga. The reduction in debt has reduced Noble's leverage ratio from 55% to 42%

3) With a bank debt due 1.3billion in 2017, it is highly likely Noble will be able to repay given it has about 1 bil of cash and ability to draw down on financing lines

4) Noble too has rationalise its manpower with the reduction from 1525 to less than 900 in few months time
5) The sale of its associate and proceeds from rights issue has allowed Noble to fight another year.

6) A small thing to worry about is Noble's "Net Fair value on commodity and derivative instruments". End FY 16, the net gain in fair value stands at 2,776,419,000 while end FY 15, it stood at 3,178,351,000. Noble should have realized approximately 400,000,000 of gains, however cash flow shows its has only realized about 234,234,000 in gains ( 60% of amount).

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/SGX%20wi...eID=440908

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/FY2016%2...eID=440907

(27-02-2017, 08:38 PM)Hi CY09,Thanks for your analysis it is this kind of facts and analysis that actually provides readers with useful information. Generally I agree with your analysis but for pt 6, the fair value gains but not be attributable to "realised contracts" that have matured. Hence, there will be a difference between cash received and \fair value gains recorded'. More accurate analysis would have been to analyse 2015's fair value that are expiring within 1 year. Also, we can see that somehow the net fair value gains is decreasing, which suggests that Noble might be using contracts with shorter contractual terms and less of those contracts involving Noble repo contract (see pg 72 &73 of audited FS for gross contractual amounts). Overall this seems to be positive - and also debunks Iceberg's myth that Noble is recognising gains only through expanding of the FV gains/losses.  Overall, the price should trend upwards once Noble turns cashflow positive in operations, which I am fairly certain will happen, just a matter of six months or one year, and baring no economic uncertainty that crashes the commodity market. Wrote: An improved result from Noble Group.

1) Cashflow is now much stronger through a strong and positive operating cash flow generated before WC changes for FY 16. While after adjustments for WC, Noble indeed is weaker, but this is expected given the accumulating trade payable Noble did over the years; eventually it has to be repaid.

2) Noble's debt has reduced probably due to the bank's asking for a partial repayment ffrom the iceberg saga. The reduction in debt has reduced Noble's leverage ratio from 55% to 42%

3) With a bank debt due 1.3billion in 2017, it is highly likely Noble will be able to repay given it has about 1 bil of cash and ability to draw down on financing lines

4) Noble too has rationalise its manpower with the reduction from 1525 to less than 900 in few months time
5) The sale of its associate and proceeds from rights issue has allowed Noble to fight another year.

6) A small thing to worry about is Noble's "Net Fair value on commodity and derivative instruments". End FY 16, the net gain in fair value stands at 2,776,419,000 while end FY 15, it stood at 3,178,351,000. Noble should have realized approximately 400,000,000 of gains, however cash flow shows its has only realized about 234,234,000 in gains ( 60% of amount).

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/SGX%20wi...eID=440908

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/FY2016%2...eID=440907

FY17 is likely a better year for Noble, with the cost reduction, and better outlooks on commodity pricing trends, and logistic revenue. Mr. Market is focusing solely on the catalyst, Sinochem's investment and ignoring the rest, IMHO.

Uncertainties remain for Noble even with FY17 profitability in sight

SINGAPORE (Feb 28): DBS Vickers Securities is keeping its “hold” call on Noble Group while raising its target price to 23 cents from 20 cents previously – on the belief that a further re-rating beyond the stock’s current level is “unjustified” without details over Sinochem’s potential investment in the group, and/or a material improvement in free cashflow generation.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com.sg/article...lity-sight