Oil Prices

Oil Tumbles Most in Five Weeks Amid Iraqi Compliance Concerns

of note : 

[U.S. drillers boosted the rig count by four to 529 last week, according to data Friday from Baker Hughes. It’s the highest level since the week ended Jan. 1, 2016. Companies have added more than 100 rigs since the end of September.]



EIA shows a rebound from ~8500 thousand bpd level in Oct  to 8700+ levels now.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHa...RFPUS2&f=W

It seems them shale diggers are coming back and with higher prices >$50 will be able to hedge and i think produce profitably for next couple years.

OPEC's cut will likely be limited, they will have to produce at full again once they realise they are just helping shale by cutting back...

Oil prices down 5 percent in January as rising U.S. output offsets OPEC-led cuts



Also alternative energy is coming online and growing very quickly and should pose a sizeable threat to fossil fuel in next 5-10years.

Tesla’s Battery Revolution Just Reached Critical Mass

ya, in-fact, OPEC losing market share to SHALE... should go all out and force SHALE to be dead...

I'm still waiting for cheap battery for my household consumption... so far it's just talk and talk....

(31-01-2017, 10:00 AM)brattzz Wrote: ya, in-fact, OPEC losing market share to SHALE... should go all out and force SHALE to be dead...

I'm still waiting for cheap battery for my household consumption... so far it's just talk and talk....

Actually US shale has existed for more than a hundred years. It's discovery came even earlier than the advert of large scale cheap oil in the majority of the middle east countries (sometime between WW1 end to after WW2). One might argue that the "challenge" in the last 3 years lead by Saudi Arabia might have made them accelerated in bottomline improvement (as the saying goes "What doesn't kill you, make you stronger") and it doesn't harm to have continually low interest rates as a tailwind.

US crude settles at $53.88, rising 2% on signs Russia and OPEC are cutting output
Oil prices were higher on Wednesday on signs that Russia and OPEC producers are delivering on promised supply reductions, though weekly U.S. supply data suggested a crude glut may persist.
Oil prices extended gains after U.S. National Security adviser Michael Flynn said the White House is putting Iran "on notice" following its recent ballistic missile tests. Traders told CNBC heightened tensions raise fears that the United States will pull out of the Iran nuclear deal or impose new sanctions, which could effect Tehran's ability to continue ramping up oil production.
Brent crude rose $1.05, or 1.9 percent, to $56.63 a barrel by 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT). U.S. crude settled up $1.07, or 2 percent, at $53.88.

OPEC Keeps Its Promise About Crude Oil Cuts, IEA Says

Saudi Arabia delivers 116% of promised cuts in January Agency boosts world oil demand estimates for 2016, 2017

OPEC achieved the best compliance rate in its history at the outset of an accord to clear the oil glut, a plan that’s being supported by surprising strength in demand, the International Energy Agency said.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries implemented 90 percent of promised output cuts in January, the first month of its agreement, as key member Saudi Arabia reduced production by even more than it had committed, the agency said. Resilient oil demand is aiding OPEC’s bid to re-balance world markets, growing more than expected last year and poised to do so again in 2017.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...s-iea-says

ouch! OPEC is hurting more than US shale oil!

turn on the tap US!

Shale is going to put a ceiling on oil price near term (over-supply); EVs and the renewable energy revolution is going to put pressure on oil price long term (declining demand).

(11-02-2017, 04:45 PM)Wildreamz Wrote: Shale is going to put a ceiling on oil price near term (over-supply); EVs and the renewable energy revolution is going to put pressure on oil price long term (declining demand).

i still don't see EVs and renewables energy taking over oil.... so guess it's a matter of who got the market share to outlast OPEC!

(11-02-2017, 04:45 PM)Wildreamz Wrote: Shale is going to put a ceiling on oil price near term (over-supply); EVs and the renewable energy revolution is going to put pressure on oil price long term (declining demand).

Yup shale ramping up again, now USA production increasing again and should hit 9000+ this week, should reach 10000 soon.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHa...RFPUS2&f=W

Around 70% of crude imports in USA were for transportation (which consist passenger travel and freight) so if just only cars and buses become EV as is happening now, suddenly millions of BPD will not be needed. OPEC cut few more million BPD also no use..

Doubt Arabs can tahan oil prices at sub $60, they will likely have no choice but pump full speed again when they realize oil prices are not going any higher.

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