M1 (formerly: MobileOne)

(22-11-2016, 12:29 PM)money Wrote:

(22-11-2016, 09:22 AM)WolfT Wrote: M1 is now 10% of my portfolio, will keep buying till 20%. No use guessing on the outcome of the 4th teleco. If Starhub drops to $2, i would start to buy it too. I see this as an opportunity to buy instead to be fearful. We'll see in 3 years time.

in the long run, i think it will give a decent return. But i would like to offer some alternatives, why not invest in other telco like say china mobile?

Ok Bro! I will go and take a look at it.

(22-11-2016, 09:22 AM)WolfT Wrote: M1 is now 10% of my portfolio, will keep buying till 20%. No use guessing on the outcome of the 4th teleco. If Starhub drops to $2, i would start to buy it too. I see this as an opportunity to buy instead to be fearful. We'll see in 3 years time.

Sometimes it does not pay off to average down on a stock, especially if MACRO fundamentals are changing. Sometimes it's not about fearful or greedy.

In such uncertain times, IMHO Singtel would be better and safer to collect due to its political backing if one was collecting telcos, especially if its gonna be 20% of your portfolio.

Singapore's population could very well go stagnant like many other developed country. it could mean lousy earnings and div for many years to come resulting in a subpar performing stock. And if a recession hits as well, there could be consolidating in our local telco sector, a SINGTEL-1 could be formed

actually a good read to foresee the future of m1, singtel and starhub.
Iliad is like newcomer.
M1, singtel and starhub is like the incumbents in france, Orange, Bouygues, SFR.

I hope the singapore incumbents are learning from france.

Good read
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB100014...52210350898818

Of note is that Iliad entered France when the penetration rate is 140% and still manage to grow.

Of note is that the trajectory of the french incumbents is following the same pattern as us now, they were hammered when iliad was introduced but rebounded later on ( not as high is previously)

The french incumbents are still and have been giving off in the range of 4-5% dividends but iliad's less than about 1%.

Singtel, M1 and starhub should just learn from france and keep it lean by first keeping retail store presence to the bare minimal like what myrepublic is doing..

(22-11-2016, 11:46 PM)BlueKelah Wrote:

(22-11-2016, 09:22 AM)WolfT Wrote: M1 is now 10% of my portfolio, will keep buying till 20%. No use guessing on the outcome of the 4th teleco. If Starhub drops to $2, i would start to buy it too. I see this as an opportunity to buy instead to be fearful. We'll see in 3 years time.

Sometimes it does not pay off to average down on a stock, especially if MACRO fundamentals are changing. Sometimes it's not about fearful or greedy.

In such uncertain times, IMHO Singtel would be better and safer to collect due to its political backing if one was collecting telcos, especially if its gonna be 20% of your portfolio.

Singapore's population could very well go stagnant like many other developed country. it could mean lousy earnings and div for many years to come resulting in a subpar performing stock. And if a recession hits as well, there could be consolidating in our local telco sector, a SINGTEL-1 could be formed

Don't worry, its only a few hundred lots. I barely touch my warchest yet. As i said, we'll see in 3 yrs time. I really hope it drop further, maybe $1.3? 
Btw, Tks BlueKelah, I made quite a pile on NamLee(including dividend). 

(23-11-2016, 07:10 AM)Stephen Wrote: actually a good read to foresee the future of m1, singtel and starhub.
Iliad is like newcomer.
M1, singtel and starhub is like the incumbents in france, Orange, Bouygues, SFR.

I hope the singapore incumbents are learning from france.

Good read
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB100014...52210350898818

Of note is that Iliad entered France when the penetration rate is 140% and still manage to grow.

Of note is that the trajectory of the french incumbents is following the same pattern as us now, they were hammered when iliad was introduced but rebounded later on ( not as high is previously)

The french incumbents are still and have been giving off in the range of 4-5% dividends but iliad's less than about 1%.

Singtel, M1 and starhub should just learn from france and keep it lean by first keeping retail store presence to the bare minimal like what myrepublic is doing..

Let me put up another version of the story

Iliad engaged the price war, with a national roaming agreement with Orange. It have delayed the initial Capex. In fact, complain arises that Iliad is slow to fulfill its own infra requirement. Once the roaming agreement terminate, before the infra maturing, its users will suffer. I am speculating that, the original game plan was using M&A to fulfill the requirement, but luck wasn't on Iliad side. One last note, France penetration was much lower then 140% back in 2012. In fact, the penetration now, is slightly above 100%. I guess, the penetration then is about 60% back in 2012.

Back to Singapore, I am still believing that, there is not feasible for a new operator, without a national roaming agreement in place, and a penetration rate of close to 150%. Investors would not go in with an expectation of huge initial Capex requirement, and an impending price war. I am yet to see any "real disruption" from both contenders' offerings.

Well, it seems the new operator is getting real over time, but I am remain skeptical, probably till the New Entrance Auction completes. A stubborn guy, isn't it  

(vested in M1)

(23-11-2016, 10:27 AM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(23-11-2016, 07:10 AM)Stephen Wrote: actually a good read to foresee the future of m1, singtel and starhub.
Iliad is like newcomer.
M1, singtel and starhub is like the incumbents in france, Orange, Bouygues, SFR.

I hope the singapore incumbents are learning from france.

Good read
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB100014...52210350898818

Of note is that Iliad entered France when the penetration rate is 140% and still manage to grow.

Of note is that the trajectory of the french incumbents is following the same pattern as us now, they were hammered when iliad was introduced but rebounded later on ( not as high is previously)

The french incumbents are still and have been giving off in the range of 4-5% dividends but iliad's less than about 1%.

Singtel, M1 and starhub should just learn from france and keep it lean by first keeping retail store presence to the bare minimal like what myrepublic is doing..

Let me put up another version of the story

Iliad engaged the price war, with a national roaming agreement with Orange. It have delayed the initial Capex. In fact, complain arises that Iliad is slow to fulfill its own infra requirement. Once the roaming agreement terminate, before the infra maturing, its users will suffer. I am speculating that, the original game plan was using M&A to fulfill the requirement, but luck wasn't on Iliad side. One last note, France penetration was much lower then 140% back in 2012. In fact, the penetration now, is slightly above 100%. I guess, the penetration then is about 60% back in 2012.

Back to Singapore, I am still believing that, there is not feasible for a new operator, without a national roaming agreement in place, and a penetration rate of close to 150%. Investors would not go in with an expectation of huge initial Capex requirement, and an impending price war. I am yet to see any "real disruption" from both contenders' offerings.

Well, it seems the new operator is getting real over time, but I am remain skeptical, probably till the New Entrance Auction completes. A stubborn guy, isn't it  

(vested in M1)

I believe it's called confirmation bias 

(22-11-2016, 11:46 PM)BlueKelah Wrote:

(22-11-2016, 09:22 AM)WolfT Wrote: M1 is now 10% of my portfolio, will keep buying till 20%. No use guessing on the outcome of the 4th teleco. If Starhub drops to $2, i would start to buy it too. I see this as an opportunity to buy instead to be fearful. We'll see in 3 years time.

Sometimes it does not pay off to average down on a stock, especially if MACRO fundamentals are changing. Sometimes it's not about fearful or greedy.

In such uncertain times, IMHO Singtel would be better and safer to collect due to its political backing if one was collecting telcos, especially if its gonna be 20% of your portfolio.

Singapore's population could very well go stagnant like many other developed country. it could mean lousy earnings and div for many years to come resulting in a subpar performing stock. And if a recession hits as well, there could be consolidating in our local telco sector, a SINGTEL-1 could be formed

You raise a good point, thumbs up from me 

(23-11-2016, 09:35 AM)WolfT Wrote:

(22-11-2016, 11:46 PM)BlueKelah Wrote:

(22-11-2016, 09:22 AM)WolfT Wrote: M1 is now 10% of my portfolio, will keep buying till 20%. No use guessing on the outcome of the 4th teleco. If Starhub drops to $2, i would start to buy it too. I see this as an opportunity to buy instead to be fearful. We'll see in 3 years time.

Sometimes it does not pay off to average down on a stock, especially if MACRO fundamentals are changing. Sometimes it's not about fearful or greedy.

In such uncertain times, IMHO Singtel would be better and safer to collect due to its political backing if one was collecting telcos, especially if its gonna be 20% of your portfolio.

Singapore's population could very well go stagnant like many other developed country. it could mean lousy earnings and div for many years to come resulting in a subpar performing stock. And if a recession hits as well, there could be consolidating in our local telco sector, a SINGTEL-1 could be formed [emoji14]

Don't worry, its only a few hundred lots. I barely touch my warchest yet. As i said, we'll see in 3 yrs time. I really hope it drop further, maybe $1.3? 
Btw, Tks BlueKelah, I made quite a pile on NamLee(including dividend). 

Lol no problem [emoji2] need to thanks whoever is coll3ting big time push it up to 40c level suddenly few months back. No action now..

Namlee is one of the few small cap that take care of opmi. I am still waiting for it to get to NAV. LOL..

Good luck with M1, I am sure it will recover at some point, Mgt. For M1 has proven quite good and telco should be resilient enough to survive the current difficult business environment.

@minx thanks. Sg birthrate is pretty bad and with current discontent towards FT. There is a chance population growth will slow down in a big way. We need to make more babies lol...

- n v-

sent from my Galaxy Note 7

Need to give Singaporean priority for jobs, else who are gonna feed the babies after giving birth!

M1 Chairman Choo Chiau Beng bought 100,000 shares of M1 @$1.9634 on 28 November 2016.