S'pore home prices still falling

(10-10-2016, 11:33 PM)jjlim84 Wrote: so can it be concluded that Singapore property prices are still comparatively affordable?

I'm quite surprised actually when I read through the affordability indexes and property price to income ratio tables of the world major cities,  and found out that Singapore is actually not in top rankings. There are some other countries where people are struggling more to own a property

Yes if it's to own just one house, esp a HDB flat.  Now degree holders starting pay is around 3k, diploma around 2-2.5k, a couple can have around 4k take home pay and they can choose to buy a flat price ranging from 200k to 400k, even maybe 500k if they get help from parents for the downpayment.

It'll become unaffordable when people become more choosy and want to buy beyong their means, e.g. want good location/good view, high floor, prefer condos over hdb, want to own more properties etc.

I did a comparison between property price index and STI equity investment, they are quite correlated.
When we have SAR, AFC and GFC, both markets got hit.

During GFC, Property index moved down like 30 pts (-23%). STI crashed almost -60%.
So Investment wise I would get out from both. Equity first !

(10-10-2016, 07:28 PM)Big Toe Wrote: The private residential market does not make sense right now.
The OCR ones 1.XM condos are fetching rentals not very much higher than HDBs.
But they cost several times more, it barely covers bank loan + maintenance + property tax.
As interest rates edge higher, prices will likely come down further.

i also have similar thoughts that prices of private properties will have to fall further. But with the recent good launch of ForestWoods and The Alps, i am starting to think that there are many rich singaporeans are waiting on the sidelines, finding the right time to pounce into the property market. Significant falls in prices will only happen if there is some global financial shock. Perhaps the bad loan problem in china may be the trigger

For every $1 price increase, Income needs to set aside 60 cents for payment of interest and down payment. Which is the loan portion that one can borrow. Assuming no other loans.

For 10K gross income, possible property purchase price:S$1,292,500. Which means $1,034,000 loan amount.

Let's say a 10K income person want to purchase a higher priced property says $1,500,000. There is a $2K monthly gap for $200,000 property price. What they have to save enough to pay more upfront so that the loan remains $1,034,000. For 50K annual saving that takes 4 years.

So TDSR only slow down the inevitable once saving rate catches up again.

property still the safest bet, though, not the most profitable now... :O
income cashflow is crucial for salaried buyers....

http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ho...1476069625

"He noted that there is still a relatively strong underlying demand for property and that buyers and investors have become more selective - favouring good locations and competitive pricing, going by the response to recent condominium launches."

"He also pointed out that the 21,500 or so unsold and uncompleted private homes as at the second quarter was the lowest on record .

Meanwhile, there were a further 5,471 unsold and uncompleted executive condominiums - the lowest number in two years."

Agreed. Fact speaks.

When circumstances change. I think it's good idea to take and step back and review your investment portfolio, may it be property, stocks, etc
Singapore Inc is experiencing a slow down. Whether this is just a temporary blip before growth resumes or a precursor to a recession is anyone's guess. But note the services sector is down on consecutive quarters, it is not something to be taken lightly.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/sing...03444.html

Singapore’s GDP Grew by 0.6 Per Cent in Third Quarter of 2016

14 October 2016. Based on advance estimates , the Singapore economy grew by 0.6 per cent on a year-on-year basis in the third quarter of 2016, easing from the 2.0 per cent growth in the previous quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, the economy contracted by 4.1 per cent, a reversal from the 0.2 per cent growth in the preceding quarter.

https://www.mti.gov.sg/NewsRoom/SiteAsse...t_3Q16.pdf

that's not positive!

(10-10-2016, 11:33 PM)jjlim84 Wrote: so can it be concluded that Singapore property prices are still comparatively affordable?

I'm quite surprised actually when I read through the affordability indexes and property price to income ratio tables of the world major cities,  and found out that Singapore is actually not in top rankings. There are some other countries where people are struggling more to own a property

Cant compare in this manner. Other big cities.. If citizens cant afford to like in the big city, can choose to live in the outskirts where accomodation is very much more affordable. In Sg, even go far flung areas, the prices are not much lower.

Lets not use HDB BTO prices. Most ppl dont qualify to buy at those prices. Have to Add in resale levy for most or the cost to get a spouse.

In european cities like paris, The vast majority rent, and few aspire to own a high price property. The stress level is not comparable. 

The reality is that Sg property is massively under supplied AT THE AFFORDABLE PRICE POINT. Properties are not commodities and the high end is in massive oversupply. 


Sg need to manage the stress level of living by lowering the cost of accomodation.

The Government build housing for more than 80%. Most gov don't even cover 10% in CITIES.
More than 90% has their own housing.

Maybe you can help clarify what do we really mean "massively under supplied AT THE AFFORDABLE PRICE POINT."