TTJ Holdings

(26-09-2016, 07:15 PM)sgmystique Wrote: Just wondering how do you rationalise a share price of $0.465 for a firm with a NAV of $0.3599 per share. Furthermore order books are significantly down at $48 million vis-a-vis $99 million at the same point of time last year. The icing on the cake is the dormitory business coming to an end in Jan17 with the replacement dormitory bearing a far smaller capacity (500 persons vs 5300 persons). Management seems to see the writing on the wall and so the focus now on pursuing opportunities in new areas of business. This seems to be quiet similar to the situation at CDW Holdings where the exisitng main line of business is in a decline and management is looking out for new areas to move into. The difference being TTJ is near 52 week highs while CDW is at 52 week lows. Will be interesting to see how the market continues to value TTJ...

this one favourite of many VB mah, like penguin last time, OnG no good liao still can push until high high coz of PEAK earnings, until earnings drop then Mr. Market adjust himself.

Now is looking more and more like sudden fall in earnings after the order book is used up and back to below 30cent. They havent got any new order at all this year, not since the big ones in OCT and Dec 2015.

Unless boss nice enough to privatise which IMHO is unlikely to happen soon since he will know that the earnings drop will cause share price to fall low low as well. He will more likely let it drop till like 25c then come in and say he will pay 30c for the rest. Look at the low div payout from the big earnings and high cash pile you can get a feel how generous management is.

probably time to get off this gravy train after the "analyst effect" has run out...

(26-09-2016, 07:15 PM)sgmystique Wrote: Just wondering how do you rationalise a share price of $0.465 for a firm with a NAV of $0.3599 per share. Furthermore order books are significantly down at $48 million vis-a-vis $99 million at the same point of time last year. The icing on the cake is the dormitory business coming to an end in Jan17 with the replacement dormitory bearing a far smaller capacity (500 persons vs 5300 persons). Management seems to see the writing on the wall and so the focus now on pursuing opportunities in new areas of business. This seems to be quiet similar to the situation at CDW Holdings where the exisitng main line of business is in a decline and management is looking out for new areas to move into. The difference being TTJ is near 52 week highs while CDW is at 52 week lows. Will be interesting to see how the market continues to value TTJ...

The P/B >1, might suggest that the net asset warrants higher valuation? I prefer to value it by earning instead, as service-based company.

Few points to note
- more than half of total assets is cash, and no debt.
- ROA 16%, ROE 20%, and ROCE (estimated) is 37% due to high cash and no debt
- Steel biz is the core, and dorm biz is the supplementary. Core biz will stay, with uncertainty ahead.

(just sharing few points for consideration, and vested)

(26-09-2016, 08:46 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(26-09-2016, 07:15 PM)sgmystique Wrote: Just wondering how do you rationalise a share price of $0.465 for a firm with a NAV of $0.3599 per share. Furthermore order books are significantly down at $48 million vis-a-vis $99 million at the same point of time last year. The icing on the cake is the dormitory business coming to an end in Jan17 with the replacement dormitory bearing a far smaller capacity (500 persons vs 5300 persons). Management seems to see the writing on the wall and so the focus now on pursuing opportunities in new areas of business. This seems to be quiet similar to the situation at CDW Holdings where the exisitng main line of business is in a decline and management is looking out for new areas to move into. The difference being TTJ is near 52 week highs while CDW is at 52 week lows. Will be interesting to see how the market continues to value TTJ...

The P/B >1, might suggest that the net asset warrants higher valuation? I prefer to value it by earning instead, as service-based company.

Few points to note
- more than half of total assets is cash, and no debt.
- ROA 16%, ROE 20%, and ROCE (estimated) is 37% due to high cash and no debt
- Steel biz is the core, and dorm biz is the supplementary.

(just sharing few points for consideration, and vested)

Just want to point out that the risks seem quiet high considering that the current share price and business prospects in the short-mid term seem to be moving in opposite directions...

The key now is how much orderbook can the company win. Judging fro its revenue, the company has about 6 months of revenue to go. It is likely to win some more contracts but imo, it probably has to lower its margin forecast (18%) for new contracts. With the government increasingly being more cost conscious in its tenders now, TTJ will have to adjust accordingly
Overall, still an ok company

<not vested>

(26-09-2016, 08:57 PM)sgmystique Wrote: Just want to point out that the risks seem quiet high considering that the current share price and business prospects in the short-mid term seem to be moving in opposite directions...

I agree, with the current order book status...

The pre tax profit increase to $30mil this qtr alone..hence,
Cash and cash equalvalent is back to $89mil level.
This is truely an amazing performance..
Those who miss the earlier boat can still join in at own risk..
Nobody asking you to buy or sell...
Ttj is definately one of the best managed company in sgx...



Review of Group performance 
For the 12 months ended 31 July 2016 (“FY2016”), the Group reported a 45% increase in revenue to 
$136.6 million, as compared to $94.1 million for the 12 months ended 31 July 2015 (“FY2015”). This was 
mainly due to the higher revenue recorded in the structural steel business. 
Revenue from the structural steel business increased from $74.1 million in FY2015 to $118.0 million in 
FY2016. The 59% increase was mainly due to more work completed for on-going projects as compared to 
the previous reporting year. In addition, for on-going projects, the Group executed more large-scale 
projects of higher contract value in FY2016 as compared to FY2015. In FY2016, the key projects that 
contributed to the Group’s revenue were mainly DUO, Tampines Town Hub, building project in Jurong 
West and projects on Jurong Island. 
The revenue generated by the Group’s dormitory business decreased by 6% from $19.1 million in FY2015 
to $18.0 million in FY2016, mainly due to a lower occupancy rate as compared to the previous reporting 
year. 
The Group’s profitability remains stable with a gross profit margin of 28.9% in FY2016 as compared to 
29.2% in FY2015. 
Administrative expenses increased by 23% from $7.7 million in FY2015 to $9.5 million in FY2016, 
mainly due to an increase in staff related cost. 
Other losses amounted to $1.1 million in FY2016 as compared to $3.0 million in FY2015. The higher 
amount recorded in the previous reporting year was mainly due to inventory written down and written off 
of $2.2 million. 
Profit before tax of the Group was $30.8 million in FY2016 as compared to $18.5 million in FY2015. The 
increase was mainly contributed by the higher revenue recorded as explained above; a decrease in other 
losses and offset by an increase in administrative expenses.

I have a thought.

Is it possible that Management want to reduce the share price then privatize next year? Such as one that next year due to the order book and dormitory business, revenue go down and then lead to share price reduction - Then privatize.

<Vested>

http://tubinvesting.blogspot.sg/

(26-09-2016, 08:57 PM)sgmystique Wrote:

(26-09-2016, 08:46 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(26-09-2016, 07:15 PM)sgmystique Wrote: Just wondering how do you rationalise a share price of $0.465 for a firm with a NAV of $0.3599 per share. Furthermore order books are significantly down at $48 million vis-a-vis $99 million at the same point of time last year. The icing on the cake is the dormitory business coming to an end in Jan17 with the replacement dormitory bearing a far smaller capacity (500 persons vs 5300 persons). Management seems to see the writing on the wall and so the focus now on pursuing opportunities in new areas of business. This seems to be quiet similar to the situation at CDW Holdings where the exisitng main line of business is in a decline and management is looking out for new areas to move into. The difference being TTJ is near 52 week highs while CDW is at 52 week lows. Will be interesting to see how the market continues to value TTJ...

The P/B >1, might suggest that the net asset warrants higher valuation? I prefer to value it by earning instead, as service-based company.

Few points to note
- more than half of total assets is cash, and no debt.
- ROA 16%, ROE 20%, and ROCE (estimated) is 37% due to high cash and no debt
- Steel biz is the core, and dorm biz is the supplementary.

(just sharing few points for consideration, and vested)

Just want to point out that the risks seem quiet high considering that the current share price and business prospects in the short-mid term seem to be moving in opposite directions...

Well the market seems to have spoken with the share price down by 16% today! We may yet not have seen the bottoms...

(27-09-2016, 03:56 PM)sgmystique Wrote:

(26-09-2016, 08:57 PM)sgmystique Wrote:

(26-09-2016, 08:46 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(26-09-2016, 07:15 PM)sgmystique Wrote: Just wondering how do you rationalise a share price of $0.465 for a firm with a NAV of $0.3599 per share. Furthermore order books are significantly down at $48 million vis-a-vis $99 million at the same point of time last year. The icing on the cake is the dormitory business coming to an end in Jan17 with the replacement dormitory bearing a far smaller capacity (500 persons vs 5300 persons). Management seems to see the writing on the wall and so the focus now on pursuing opportunities in new areas of business. This seems to be quiet similar to the situation at CDW Holdings where the exisitng main line of business is in a decline and management is looking out for new areas to move into. The difference being TTJ is near 52 week highs while CDW is at 52 week lows. Will be interesting to see how the market continues to value TTJ...

The P/B >1, might suggest that the net asset warrants higher valuation? I prefer to value it by earning instead, as service-based company.

Few points to note
- more than half of total assets is cash, and no debt.
- ROA 16%, ROE 20%, and ROCE (estimated) is 37% due to high cash and no debt
- Steel biz is the core, and dorm biz is the supplementary.

(just sharing few points for consideration, and vested)

Just want to point out that the risks seem quiet high considering that the current share price and business prospects in the short-mid term seem to be moving in opposite directions...

Well the market seems to have spoken with the share price down by 16% today! We may yet not have seen the bottoms...

Mr market expecting another jumbo dividend which is denied! Hence giving back the unrealistic high expectation he himself created preceeding to the result announcement.

Imho, the real valid concern is the order book!

it seems all the speculators have jumped off, too late to get off the gravy train now...if it dun hit back to lows this quarter then it should go back to lows once the next quarter revenue/profit has a big drop. 

right which brokerage analyst was the one that recommended buy call on this stock just a few weeks ago when it was trading about 38c?? and with a price target 47cents? smells like pump and today it seems a lot of dumping...

lol Boss teo must be happily looking at the price tank, so much easier for him to privatise, though at the next AGM there might be quite a few disgruntled OPMI he have to deal with