Warning : Some of the language used here may be politically offensive, so DO NOT continue reading if you don't have any sense of humour.
Using FA (Fundamental Analysis) and data from the recent GE 2011,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapore_g...tion,_2011
and making the assumption that PE 2011 will follow the same trend (using TA) as GE 2011, I have the following conclusion,
1) Hard core anti-PAP voters is around 30% (using the worst Opposition results) ie. these voters will vote for any non-PAP associated candidate. These voters will mostly vote for either TJS or TKL, with TJS getting most of the votes. BUT, the Opposition supporters are also not a very united front and some voters will vote for TCB instead. Firstly, there're bad blood between SDP and SPP. SPP supporters are more likely to vote for TKL or TCB. WP is against the PE and they are not supporting any candidate. WP supporters may not be inclined to vote for TJS as they may want to retain the bragging rights as the dominant Opposition voice. NSP supporters will likely be split among TJS, TCB & TKL as some of them are helping out at various campaigns. I'll not include the RP and SDA as it'd greatly complicate my analysis (some key NSP members were from RP and SDA was closely aligned to SPP). Here, my conclusion (from my crystal ball) is TJS = 15-20%, TCB = 5-10% & TKL = 5-10%
2) Hard core PAP voters is around 35% (using the worst PAP result) ie. these voters will vote for any PAP associated candidate. Most of these voters will go for TT as he was holding a more senior position in the government previously. TCB will have his supporter base from his Ayer Rajah MP days. Here, my crystal ball indicates TT 20-25% & TCB 10-15%
3) The balance 35% will be the independent minded voters (not brain-washed by either PAP or the Opposition) and they will be split amongst the 4 candidates. They will vote in the best qualified candidate using their own unknown and uncommon set of criterias. Here, my crystal ball is a bit fuzzy, so, I pluck the figures from the air of TT = 15%, TCB = 10%, TJS = 5% & TKL = 5%.
Let's total the numbers,
1) TT = 35-40%
2) TCB = 25-35%
3) TJS = 20-25%
4) TKL = 10-15%
Note : Vested in one of the above and my analysis may be biased