Best World

Amway's lessons in China : how to weather the compliance storm 

http://fcpacompliancereport.com/2013/03/...nce-storm/
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北大发布中国直销课题报告：直销为中国社会经济作出重要贡献 

日期：11/10/2015

http://www.amway.com.cn/news/activity/201511/98359.html

根据十三五的规划建议，未来商务部会逐渐放宽经营限制，适时调整服务网点的制度，研究有条件的地方逐步扩大直销产品品种，放宽直销区域限制，为直销企业激发活力。
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Managed to locate this slide – but how realistic is this "dream"?

Hopefully the passionate and hungrier Taiwanese could make it a “reality” – so far so good – FY2016 target of TWD 1,800 m looks likely to be accomplished as well.

(02-07-2016, 11:50 PM)chialc88 Wrote: I brought BWL because of Dora story.
So long as Dora is still passionate about what she belief I think BWL should be fine.

I asked myself, 
how many stocks in the market that gives the type of confidence
that mid to long term perspective will be better than today?

Not many listing come up.

Especially during current volatile environment.

The only question that I have is whether I should take profit or buy more.

A famous blogger advocate when the stock rose 100%,
then one should sell 50%.
He called this "zero-cost" strategy.

Another even more famous blogger Dr Chan says that this does not make sense.
Dr Chan advocate when the stock rose 4 times, 
then one should sell 25%.
He also called this "zero-capital" stock.

So, I repeat my question, should I take profit or buy more?

I'm inclined to take profit based on "zero-cost/capital" theory.
However, I'm very mindful of what CF says in term of mid/long term benefits.

Am I going to lost sleep thinking/scratching my head?

Tell me after you watch this:


 Love Compassion

Hi chialc88,

Of all the 2016 convention videos, I am most impressed with this one, which I believe addressed some of the questions raised by "shadow_walker" 

http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-1033-...#pid130378http,,s:/

/


Not sure if it would help you to sleep better.............................long video but worth it.....................I reckon
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Could explain why direct selling is booming in China.

http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-as...k-two-jobs

Dear Chialc 88,

I invested in Best World International (BWI) because:

1) I understood how a legitimate Multi-Level-Marketing worked.
2) I saw Value in BWI in year 2009. It was traded @ $0.172 down from high of $1.16 on 25th Sept 2007 (Down by 85%) and paid dividends every year.
Since I was a Value-Investor, I bought it.

Now, I divided my holding of BWI into 5 parts and sold 4 parts of it on 8th June 2016 at $1.37 per unit. (Gain 696%).

Currently the price of BWI is $1.50 per share. Will it double to $3.00? Maybe but difficult to achieve 700% from here.

So I would like to share with you my Method:

I keep 1 part of it, which is 20% of my previous holding in BWI.

The other 4 parts are my profits. I invested them in 4 different Companies:

1. Bought Accordia Golf Trust for dividends, current yield is about 12% PA. (I understand Golf Course Business as I'm a Social Golfer for many years.)
2. Bought Hiap Seng Engineering as it has gone down by 87%, paid dividends every year.
3. Bought Falcon it has gone down by 82%,
4. Bought Ezra as it gone down by 96% from its high.

Assuming my investments in these 5 Companies in few years time turn up to be:

1. BWI doubled in value. = +100%
2. One of the Co collapsed. = -100%
3. One of the Co remain same price. = 0%
4. One of the Co double in value. = +100%
5. One multi Baggers. = +700%

(100% - 100% + 0% + 100% + 700%) divided by 5 = 160%
My opinion, split into 5 Companies to get 160% increase is safer then to rely on one company to gain 100%.

Note: All are Assumptions Only. If U don't agree is okay.

(06-07-2016, 11:11 AM)MOV Wrote: Could explain why direct selling is booming in China.

http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-as...k-two-jobs

The key underlying driving factor is still "quality assurance":

"Many consumers find direct sales transactions more reassuring -- especially for health and beauty products, like diet supplements -- because they typically come with the endorsement of friends, relatives or someone else they know."
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The direct sales model proved ideal for China's many would-be entrepreneurs who were eager to get into business, but who lacked the capital (or political connections) to start something on their own. The industry also happened to fit seamlessly with China’s business culture, which places a premium on working with people whom you already trust, such as family members, classmates, and people from the same village.

Why is personal trust at such a premium in China? Part of the reason is that consumer rights in China, even when they have a basis in law, are weak, since the country's court system is mostly inaccessible for people of modest means. As a result, some manufacturers cut corners because they know Chinese consumers have few ways to hold them accountable for selling shoddy products. The public has learned they have good reason to be wary of counterfeits and contamination when shopping at their local markets.
 
Many consumers find direct sales transactions more reassuring -- especially for health and beauty products, like diet supplements -- because they typically come with the endorsement of friends, relatives or someone else they know.
 
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2...d-business
 
根据国内著名第三方调查机构零点公司对全国122个城市的抽样调查，公众对直销产品质量、产品价格、直销员服务态度三个方面的满意度分别为95%、92.8%和96%，出乎研究者预料。公众在购买直销产品时的第一驱动因素为“质量有保证”。

http://www.amway.com.cn/news/activity/201511/98359.html
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CF & R@52 Evaluate Fundamental and opportunity cost

like this?


For new stocks, still not able to find one yet (and right, not buying Penguin yet.)

:heart Love Compassion

(06-07-2016, 11:54 AM)Retired@52 Wrote: Dear Chialc 88,

I invested in Best World International (BWI) because:

1) I understood how a legitimate Multi-Level-Marketing worked.
2) I saw Value in BWI in year 2009. It was traded @ $0.172 down from high of $1.16 on 25th Sept 2007 (Down by 85%) and paid dividends every year.
Since I was a Value-Investor, I bought it.

Now, I divided my holding of BWI into 5 parts and sold 4 parts of it on 8th June 2016 at $1.37 per unit. (Gain 696%).

Currently the price of BWI is $1.50 per share. Will it double to $3.00? Maybe but difficult to achieve 700% from here.

So I would like to share with you my Method:

I keep 1 part of it, which is 20% of my previous holding in BWI.

The other 4 parts are my profits. I invested them in 4 different Companies:

1. Bought Accordia Golf Trust for dividends, current yield is about 12% PA. (I understand Golf Course Business as I'm a Social Golfer for many years.)
2. Bought Hiap Seng Engineering as it has gone down by 87%, paid dividends every year.
3. Bought Falcon it has gone down by 82%,
4. Bought Ezra as it gone down by 96% from its high.

Assuming my investments in these 5 Companies in few years time turn up to be:

1. BWI doubled in value. = +100%
2. One of the Co collapsed. = -100%
3. One of the Co remain same price. = 0%
4. One of the Co double in value. = +100%
5. One multi Baggers. = +700%

(100% - 100% + 0% + 100% + 700%) divided by 5 = 160%
My opinion, split into 5 Companies to get 160% increase is safer then to rely on one company to gain 100%.

Note: All are Assumptions Only. If U don't agree is okay.

"Currently the price of BWI is $1.50 per share. Will it double to $3.00? Maybe but difficult to achieve 700% from here."

What would be the approximate revenues are we talking about under such scenarios?
 
From SGD 1.50 to SGD 3.00 : (+100%)
Using
PE = 15
NPM = 12.5%
ðEPS = 3 / 15 = SGD 0.20
ðNPAT = 0.20 X 220 = SGD 44 m
ðRevenue = 44 / 0.125 = SGD 352 m
 
This would be achieved if BWL Taiwan could fulfill its dream of “2020 破百亿” (excluding contributions from China and other markets)
 
(TWD 10,000 m ~ SGD 400 m)
 
From SGD 1.50 to SGD 12.0 : (+700%)
Using
PE = 15
NPM = 12.5%
ðEPS = 12 / 15 = SGD 0.80
ðNPAT = 0.80 X 220 = SGD 176 m
ðRevenue = 176 / 0.125 = SGD 1,408 m
 
This would be achieved if BWZ could fulfill its dream of “全美中国十年倍增不是梦，齐心齐力破百亿”. (excluding contributions from Taiwan and other markets)
 
(RMB 10,000 ~ SGD 2,000 m)
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Will their China distribution agent retaliates during this 6 months period of certification ?