TTJ Holdings

(11-06-2016, 08:53 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: The EPS (TTM), after the 9M report, is about 8.3 cents per share. I am expecting 1.6-1.7 cents dividend per share, with a flat coming 4Q performance and 20% payout ratio. It means about 5% @ 34 cents per share. 

Of course, positive surprises are welcomed. 

(vested)

Well, just based on TTJ's first 9 months' EPS of $0.0656.....
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/TTJ%20Q3...eID=408110
it is reasonable to expect full-year's EPS to hit $0.08.

Bearing in mind that TTJ's cash reserve as at 30Apr16 already stood at $64.56m - equivalent to approx. $0.185/share (based on the latest 349.5m outstanding issued shares) - it is also reasonable to expect a good final dividend payout when the company releases its full-year (ending 31Jul16) result by end-Sep16.

Also, we should not forget that founder & controlling shareholder Mr Teo Hock Chwee spent the entire funds from his last FY15's $0.08/share final dividend to increase his stake in TTJ, when the Ng Family behind Tat Hong decided to sell their stake. Just on this point alone, it is reasonable to expect Mr Teo to want/support another big dividend payment in this FY16 to replace the funds he needed last year.

Based on today's (17Jun16) closing at $0.34, TTJ's share price has risen a good $0.05, or 17.2%, since the release of the very positive 3Q result on 7Jun16. As the advance was made against an approx. 3.5% decline of the STI as a measurement of the SGX stock market, TTJ indeed has admirably bucked the trend of the overall market. It appears there are serious investors out there who are willing to pay a high price for this stock in anticipation of positive things or events to come.

Did anyone has any concern that the order book has dropped to $68m? I think this is the lowest since 2012.

Between this year so far there isn't any announcement on any new contract win yet. I wonder this stock could it be tightly tied to Singapore construction cycle. Any slowdown in construction might hit this counter. Unless it has other sectors revenue enough to tide it through.

Since it is listed from 2011, i do not know how it performs during the 2008 or before 2006 during the construction slump.

(18-06-2016, 03:24 PM)hongonn Wrote: Did anyone has any concern that the order book has dropped to $68m? I think this is the lowest since 2012.

Between this year so far there isn't any announcement on any new contract win yet. I wonder this stock could it be tightly tied to Singapore construction cycle. Any slowdown in construction might hit this counter. Unless it has other sectors revenue enough to tide it through.

Since it is listed from 2011, i do not know how it performs during the 2008 or before 2006 during the construction slump.

yes hongonn I have mentioned this in a post last month. 

This period is probably as good as it gets and things have probably peaked for TTJ. Unless some sudden big order come in for their order book. Usually by June half year they should have managed to secure some project for the order book.

I suspect that TTJ management will cite challenging property/construction sector and need to conserve cash or reinvest to squirm out of paying a big dividend. 

Going forward it is likely lean times for TTJ with a big drop in EPS going forward, unless management decide to pick up some lower margin jobs to keep things running. If the dormitory business is not renewed it will be a double whammy.

Expect the share price to have a big drop if the dividend is not as big as expected or after XD if the drought of orderbook continues.

-n v-

As I have told someone that ask the same question on my blog.

"I agree with you on reduction of their order book and it does post as a concern. However, I remember a stock which I sold previously, Hock Lian Seng Ltd. The decision to sell at that point the price is hovering flat and order book was dropping. Furthermore, it suddenly went into property development. Worried I sold at 0.270. Then I watched it climbed up to 0.400.

It was a decision I regretted. The lesson I learn here is that if the management doesn't change, the culture in the firm will not change. So if the management of TTJ did not change, I don't think we will need to worry so much about the order book dropping. The management will definitely find a way to increase the order book eventually - especially when it releases its end year financial report."

This is just my opinion.

<vested>

http://tubinvesting.blogspot.sg/2016/06/...mment-form

(18-06-2016, 03:39 PM)TUBInvesting Wrote: As I have told someone that ask the same question on my blog.

"I agree with you on reduction of their order book and it does post as a concern. However, I remember a stock which I sold previously, Hock Lian Seng Ltd. The decision to sell at that point the price is hovering flat and order book was dropping. Furthermore, it suddenly went into property development. Worried I sold at 0.270. Then I watched it climbed up to 0.400.

It was a decision I regretted. The lesson I learn here is that if the management doesn't change, the culture in the firm will not change. So if the management of TTJ did not change, I don't think we will need to worry so much about the order book dropping. The management will definitely find a way to increase the order book eventually - especially when it releases its end year financial report."

This is just my opinion.

<vested>

http://tubinvesting.blogspot.sg/2016/06/...mment-form

@TUBInvesting : 
More than a year ago Hock Lian Seng at 27c was pretty undervalued compared to its NAV of ~40cents, no surprise with a doubling of the yearly dividend last year to 4c, and being thinly traded normally, the share price spiked as some increase in interest. This year with the reduction in dividend down to 2.5c, you can see the share price has been on a big downtrend and now trading at 35c. Not very far off from reaching the 27c where you divested. This pattern is very common for property/construction company. Usually they will end up with share price about 50% of NAV, until the next round of special dividends.

TTJ however has  pretty much reached NAV at the moment after a slow increase past few years. It is very likely after the dividend payout this year that due to low order book and loss of dorm business, the earnings will suffer (analyst like to say - no earnings visibility). There will be a lag period after this years good results,  before the share price goes down. For small cap like TTJ if there is no growth in business and dip in dividend to below 4% yield, usually the share price will end up around 60-70% of NAV.

fair observations,

new/increasing book-orders, and earning visibility means more to investors...

Reading between the lines, so far these TTJ has not provided any positive inputs to it yet...
Of cos delist at a low low price is also possible with only 15% public float left!

(18-06-2016, 04:04 PM)BlueKelah Wrote:

(18-06-2016, 03:39 PM)TUBInvesting Wrote: As I have told someone that ask the same question on my blog.

"I agree with you on reduction of their order book and it does post as a concern. However, I remember a stock which I sold previously, Hock Lian Seng Ltd. The decision to sell at that point the price is hovering flat and order book was dropping. Furthermore, it suddenly went into property development. Worried I sold at 0.270. Then I watched it climbed up to 0.400.

It was a decision I regretted. The lesson I learn here is that if the management doesn't change, the culture in the firm will not change. So if the management of TTJ did not change, I don't think we will need to worry so much about the order book dropping. The management will definitely find a way to increase the order book eventually - especially when it releases its end year financial report."

This is just my opinion.

<vested>

http://tubinvesting.blogspot.sg/2016/06/...mment-form

@TUBInvesting : 
More than a year ago Hock Lian Seng at 27c was pretty undervalued compared to its NAV of ~40cents, no surprise with a doubling of the yearly dividend last year to 4c, and being thinly traded normally, the share price spiked as some increase in interest. This year with the reduction in dividend down to 2.5c, you can see the share price has been on a big downtrend and now trading at 35c. Not very far off from reaching the 27c where you divested. This pattern is very common for property/construction company. Usually they will end up with share price about 50% of NAV, until the next round of special dividends.

TTJ however has  pretty much reached NAV at the moment after a slow increase past few years. It is very likely after the dividend payout this year that due to low order book and loss of dorm business, the earnings will suffer (analyst like to say - no earnings visibility). There will be a lag period after this years good results,  before the share price goes down. For small cap like TTJ if there is no growth in business and dip in dividend to below 4% yield, usually the share price will end up around 60-70% of NAV.

True and agreed.

Just like to clarify that for new comers who have yet join vested in TTJ, please wait till price to fall. For those already onboard, our dividend the last few years should be able to "tahan" the fall in share price over the next 2 years.

And if it goes to 60% to 70% NAV, I should be the first to pounce on it.

<vested>

http://tubinvesting.blogspot.sg/

(20-06-2016, 09:02 AM)TUBInvesting Wrote:

(18-06-2016, 04:04 PM)BlueKelah Wrote:

(18-06-2016, 03:39 PM)TUBInvesting Wrote: As I have told someone that ask the same question on my blog.

"I agree with you on reduction of their order book and it does post as a concern. However, I remember a stock which I sold previously, Hock Lian Seng Ltd. The decision to sell at that point the price is hovering flat and order book was dropping. Furthermore, it suddenly went into property development. Worried I sold at 0.270. Then I watched it climbed up to 0.400.

It was a decision I regretted. The lesson I learn here is that if the management doesn't change, the culture in the firm will not change. So if the management of TTJ did not change, I don't think we will need to worry so much about the order book dropping. The management will definitely find a way to increase the order book eventually - especially when it releases its end year financial report."

This is just my opinion.

<vested>

http://tubinvesting.blogspot.sg/2016/06/...mment-form

@TUBInvesting : 
More than a year ago Hock Lian Seng at 27c was pretty undervalued compared to its NAV of ~40cents, no surprise with a doubling of the yearly dividend last year to 4c, and being thinly traded normally, the share price spiked as some increase in interest. This year with the reduction in dividend down to 2.5c, you can see the share price has been on a big downtrend and now trading at 35c. Not very far off from reaching the 27c where you divested. This pattern is very common for property/construction company. Usually they will end up with share price about 50% of NAV, until the next round of special dividends.

TTJ however has  pretty much reached NAV at the moment after a slow increase past few years. It is very likely after the dividend payout this year that due to low order book and loss of dorm business, the earnings will suffer (analyst like to say - no earnings visibility). There will be a lag period after this years good results,  before the share price goes down. For small cap like TTJ if there is no growth in business and dip in dividend to below 4% yield, usually the share price will end up around 60-70% of NAV.

True and agreed.

Just like to clarify that for new comers who have yet join vested in TTJ, please wait till price to fall. For those already onboard, our dividend the last few years should be able to "tahan" the fall in share price over the next 2 years.

And if it goes to 60% to 70% NAV, I should be the first to pounce on it.

<vested>

http://tubinvesting.blogspot.sg/

Dun think NAV increase is slow.
In FY13, equity was around 28.5 cents, price also around there.
If FY16, equity is 37 cents, then plus the 10 cents dividends given since FY13, it would be 47 cents.
That would give an annualized rate of around 18%, achieved without becoming highly geared.

(17-06-2016, 09:42 PM)dydx Wrote:

(11-06-2016, 08:53 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: The EPS (TTM), after the 9M report, is about 8.3 cents per share. I am expecting 1.6-1.7 cents dividend per share, with a flat coming 4Q performance and 20% payout ratio. It means about 5% @ 34 cents per share. 

Of course, positive surprises are welcomed. 

(vested)

Well, just based on TTJ's first 9 months' EPS of $0.0656.....
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/TTJ%20Q3...eID=408110
it is reasonable to expect full-year's EPS to hit $0.08.

Bearing in mind that TTJ's cash reserve as at 30Apr16 already stood at $64.56m - equivalent to approx. $0.185/share (based on the latest 349.5m outstanding issued shares) - it is also reasonable to expect a good final dividend payout when the company releases its full-year (ending 31Jul16) result by end-Sep16.

Also, we should not forget that founder & controlling shareholder Mr Teo Hock Chwee spent the entire funds from his last FY15's $0.08/share final dividend to increase his stake in TTJ, when the Ng Family behind Tat Hong decided to sell their stake. Just on this point alone, it is reasonable to expect Mr Teo to want/support another big dividend payment in this FY16 to replace the funds he needed last year.

Based on today's (17Jun16) closing at $0.34, TTJ's share price has risen a good $0.05, or 17.2%, since the release of the very positive 3Q result on 7Jun16. As the advance was made against an approx. 3.5% decline of the STI as a measurement of the SGX stock market, TTJ indeed has admirably bucked the trend of the overall market. It appears there are serious investors out there who are willing to pay a high price for this stock in anticipation of positive things or events to come.

Quite curious wat Mr Teo has done or intends to do with the $$ from deemed interested of 130 mil shares, if any.
I hope TTJ can return most of the excess cash, especially if dorm going to stop. Will make it more return efficient for investors.

Mr Teo will buy KEPCORP!!!
kidding,

money is always useful lah!