UMS Holdings

In the short term one cent div not gonna do much.

Stock is down 6% liao, looks like market only looks at BOTTOM LINE. but this is industry wide, smartphone sector also hit. Looks like there is really a cycle this time.

The speculators that enable recent run up for the div seems to have gone.

Hopefully hit 50c can collecT again.

Sent from my MotoG3 using Tapatalk

(10-05-2016, 08:52 PM)Boon Wrote:

1Q2016 Results:

 

Revenue (SGD million):

1Q2014 = 34.309

2Q2014 = 28.689   

3Q2014 = 24.771  

4Q2014 = 22.050   

1Q2015 = 27.467

2Q2015 = 31.043   

3Q2015 = 30.696  

4Q2015 = 21.884

1Q2016 = 20.362

 

NPAT (SGD million):

1Q2014 = 8.558

2Q2014 = 7.229    

3Q2014 = 6,465   

4Q2014 = 3.677    

1Q2015 = 7.541

2Q2015 = 8.266    

3Q2015 = 8.531  

4Q2015 = 9.961

1Q2016 = 3.380

 

EPS ( SGD Cent ):

1Q2014 = 2.00 (adjusted for bonus issue)

2Q2014 = 1.68    

3Q2014 = 1.27   

4Q2014 = 0.86     

1Q2015 = 1.76

2Q2015 = 1.93    

3Q2015 = 1.99  

4Q2015 = 2.32

1Q2016 = 0.79

 

Gross Profit Margin (GPM):

1Q2014 = 53%

2Q2014 = 57%

3Q2014 = 54%

4Q2014 = 54%

1Q2015 = 57%

2Q2015 = 57%

3Q2015 = 55%

4Q2015 = 76%

1Q2016 = 60%

 

Net Profit Margin (NPM):

1Q2014 = 24.9%

2Q2014 = 25.2%

3Q2014 = 22.1%

4Q2014 = 16.7%

1Q2015 = 27.5%

2Q2015 = 26.6%

3Q2015 = 27.8%

4Q2015 = 45.5%

1Q2016 = 16.6%

 

FCF Generated (SGD million):

1Q2014 = 10.3

2Q2014 =  3.9    

3Q2014 =  5.7    

4Q2014 =  9.0   

1Q2015 =  6.4

2Q2015 = 12.6 

3Q2015 =  3.5  

4Q2015 =  8.8

1Q2016 =  5.0

 

Cash & Cash Equivalent (SGD million)

1Q2014 = 39.511

2Q2014 = 36.113 (debt = 5.000) ; Net Cash = 31.113

3Q2014 = 32.947

4Q2014 = 33.792

1Q2015 = 40.801

2Q2015 = 39.607 (no bank borrowing)

3Q2015 = 38.255 (no bank borrowing)

4Q2015 = 38.933 (no bank borrowing)

1Q2016 = 42.780 (no bank borrowing)

 

DPS ( SGD Cent ):

1Q2014 = 1.00

2Q2014 = 1.00   

3Q2014 = 1.00   

4Q2014 = 3.00    (FY2014 = 6.00)

1Q2015 = 1.00

2Q2015 = 1.00    

3Q2015 = 1.00

4Q2015 = 3.00    (FY2015 = 6.00)

1Q2016 = 1.00

 

Comments:

1)  Overall, a bad set of 1Q2016 results ~ comparable to that of 4Q2014 in many respects.

2) That said, FCF generated amounting to SGD 5 m is still enough to cover DPS of 1 cent.

3) “The Group has yet to observe a clear pick up in orders from its key customer and expects the second quarter activities of the current year to be relatively subdued.” – which is a bit of a worry.
4) Hopefully, things would improve in 2H2016, will see………..
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Great tracking! thanks Boon

Just want to highlight their cash generating ability. Even when the revenue drops 26% yoy, cashflow only drop 15%. With a cash pile of $42M that is still increasing, the ex-cash PE is only 7.1!

[Image: 102w8wp.jpg]

One bad quarterly results in a year is common.
Two bad quarterly results in a row did happen before.
Three bad quarterly results in a row has yet to happen…………. 
 
Assuming 2Q, 3Q and 4Q2016 results would be as bad as 1Q2016 but would still manage to generate 5m of FCF in each quarter, giving rise to FCF of 20 m for FY2016.
 
To declare FY2016 DPS of 6 cents, UMS would need to top up 5.75 m from it cash hoard which it could easily afford to do.
 
Yearly DPS of 4 cents => 17.17 m
Yearly DPS of 5 cents => 21.46 m
Yearly DPS of 6 cents => 25.75 m
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(Just want to highlight their cash generating ability. Even when the revenue drops 26% yoy, cashflow only drop 15%. With a cash pile of $42M that is still increasing, the ex-cash PE is only 7.1!)

DCF since this quarterly does not cover the recent dividend payout, as of stock being XD, strictly speaking cash pile is now only 42.78m-12.874m = 29.9m which is only 11.71% of current market cap. And if you further take away the 1c to be paid out which will be 4.29m, cash left will be 25.6m, around 10% of Mcap only.


If this downward trend continues, it is very likely UMS will have to cut dividends to 1c per quarter. But i do think next quarter wont be as badly impacted by forex loss as USD should be rebounding soon.

(11-05-2016, 08:35 PM)Boon Wrote: [Image: 102w8wp.jpg]

One bad quarterly results in a year is common.
Two bad quarterly results in a row did happen before.
Three bad quarterly results in a row has yet to happen…………. 
 
Assuming 2Q, 3Q and 4Q2016 results would be as bad as 1Q2016 but would still manage to generate 5m of FCF in each quarter, giving rise to FCF of 20 m for FY2016.
 
To declare FY2016 DPS of 6 cents, UMS would need to top up 5.75 m from it cash hoard which it could easily afford to do.
 
Yearly DPS of 4 cents => 17.17 m
Yearly DPS of 5 cents => 21.46 m
Yearly DPS of 6 cents => 25.75 m
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That's a nice chart showing a clear down trend in revenue.. We would get more clues when Applied Materials announce their earnings results on 19th May.

Q2 2016 Applied Materials Earnings Conference Call

Q216   Q116   Q215
New orders    $ 1,966 $ 1,275 $ 1,704
Foundry            23% 38% 36%
DRAM               17% 29% 31%
Flash                49% 22% 21%
Logic and other 11% 11% 12%

Amat posted very good results with a spike in stock price last night. Compared to Q215 , orders for DRAM and foundry segment which use ENDURA platform which seem to have reduced YoY. UMS earnings could be seasonally better next quarter but likely wont be as impressive as last year.

The money this year seems to be coming from 3DNAND (1 billion of NAND orders, this should be under the FLASH segment and AMATs CVD/CMP products) and ramp up of OLED. Amat also says China earnings are at all time high.

North American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Posts April 2016 Book-to-Bill Ratio of 1.10

SAN JOSE, Calif. — May 24, 2016 — North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $1.59 billion in orders worldwide in April 2016 (three-month average basis) and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.10, according to the April Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS) Book-to-Bill Report published today by SEMI.  A book-to-bill of 1.10 means that $110 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month.

SEMI reports that the three-month average of worldwide bookings in April 2016 was $1.59 billion. The bookings figure is 15.6 percent higher than the final March 2016 level of $1.38 billion, and is 1.3 percent higher than the April 2015 order level of $1.57 billion.

The three-month average of worldwide billings in April 2016 was $1.46 billion. The billings figure is 21.5 percent higher than the final March 2016 level of $1.20 billion, and is 4.0 percent lower than the April 2015 billings level of $1.52 billion.

"Bookings reached their highest levels in eight months and billings levels also significantly improved in April,” said Denny McGuirk, president and CEO of SEMI. "The data reflect strong investments in 3D NAND and in China.".......................................

http://www.semi.org/en/north-american-se...-ratio-110
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I am playing catch up again……………
 
AMAT reported results for its second quarter ending 01 May 2016.
 
For 2Q2016, SSG’s new orders were 54% higher compared to 1Q2016. Sales were 16% higher than 1Q2016, while backlog remained healthy at around USD 2.0 billion.
 
The strong performance of AMAT’s 2Q2016 results is “inconsistent” with UMS’s 1Q2016 results, as most of AMAT’s growth were in 3D-NAND, while demand for SSG’s foundry products (which Endura fall under) remain flat.
 
Management thinks second half is pretty good on foundry.
 
SSG : Revenue (USD million):
1Q2014 = 1,484
2Q2014 = 1,584
3Q2014 = 1,476
4Q2014 = 1,434  (FY2014 = 5,978)
1Q2015 = 1,446
2Q2015 = 1,560
3Q2015 = 1.635
4Q2015 = 1,494  (FY2015 = 6,135)
1Q2016 = 1,373 
2Q2016 = 1,587  (UP 16%)
 
SSG : New Orders (USD million)
1Q2014 = 1,569
2Q2014 = 1,664
3Q2014 = 1,565
4Q2014 = 1,334   (FY2014 = 6,132)
1Q2015 = 1,426
2Q2015 = 1,704
3Q2015 = 2,007
4Q2015 = 1,444   (FY2015 = 6,581)
1Q2016 = 1,275  
2Q2016 = 1,966  (UP 54%)
 
New orders (2Q2016) = 1,966 m
Foundry (23%) = 452 m
DRAM
 (17%) = 334 m
Flash (49%) = 963 m

Logic and other (11%) = 216 m
 
New orders (1Q2016) = 1,275 m
Foundry (38%) = 484 m
DRAM
 (29%) = 370 m
Flash (22%) = 280 m

Logic and other (11%) = 140 m 
 
SSG : Backlog (USD million)
1Q2014 = 1,366
2Q2014 = 1,452
3Q2014 = 1,515
4Q2014 = 1,401
1Q2015 = 1,362
2Q2015 = 1,473
3Q2015 = 1,767
4Q2015 = 1,727
1Q2016 = 1,586
2Q2016 = 2,043
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good job boon, didnt know you are covering amat too, let u post next time

Global Semiconductor Sales Decrease in April; Annual Sales Projected to Dip Slightly in 2016, Rebound in 2017, 2018
INDUSTRY FORECAST PROJECTS SALES WILL DECREASE 2.4 PERCENT IN 2016, INCREASE 2.0 PERCENT IN 2017, 2.2 PERCENT IN 2018 
Published Tuesday, June 7, 2016 5:00 pm
by Dan Rosso

WASHINGTON—June 7, 2016—The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), representing U.S. leadership in semiconductor manufacturing, design, and research, today announced worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $25.8 billion for the month of April 2016, a decrease of 1.0 percent from last month’s total of $26.1 billion and 6.2 percent lower than the April 2015 total of $27.6 billion. All monthly sales numbers are compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and represent a three-month moving average. Additionally, a new WSTS industry forecast projects decreased annual semiconductor sales in 2016, followed by slight market growth in 2017 and 2018.

“Global semiconductor sales decreased marginally in April, continuing a recent trend of market sluggishness driven by soft demand and a range of macroeconomic headwinds,” said John Neuffer, president and CEO, Semiconductor Industry Association. “Despite a cumulative decrease across all product categories, year-to-year sales of microprocessors and analog products increased modestly, perhaps foreshadowing stronger sales ahead. The latest industry forecast suggests global sales may indeed rebound somewhat in the second half of 2016, but still fall short of last year’s total. The global market is projected to grow slightly in 2017 and 2018.”

Regionally, year-to-year sales increased in Japan (2.2 percent) and China (0.3 percent), but decreased in Asia Pacific/All Other (-8.2 percent), Europe (-8.6 percent), and the Americas (-14.8 percent). Compared with last month, sales were up slightly Japan (0.2 percent) and Asia Pacific/All Other (0.1 percent), but down in Europe (-0.8 percent), China (-1.8 percent), and the Americas (-2.2 percent).

Additionally, SIA today endorsed the WSTS Spring 2016 global semiconductor sales forecast, which projects the industry’s worldwide sales will be $327.2 billion in 2016, a 2.4 percent decrease from the 2015 sales total. WSTS projects year-to-year decreases across all regional markets for 2016: Europe (-0.1 percent), Asia Pacific (-1.2 percent), Japan (-1.7 percent), and the Americas (-7.3 percent). On the positive side, WSTS predicts growth in 2016 for several semiconductor product categories, including discretes, analog, and MCU products. 

Beyond 2016, the semiconductor market is expected to grow at a modest pace across all regions. WSTS forecasts 2.0 percent growth globally for 2017 ($333.7 billion in total sales) and 2.2 percent growth for 2018 ($340.9 billion). WSTS tabulates its semi-annual industry forecast by convening an extensive group of global semiconductor companies that provide accurate and timely indicators of semiconductor trends.

To find out how to purchase the WSTS Subscription Package, which includes comprehensive monthly semiconductor sales data and detailed WSTS Forecasts, please visit http://www.semiconductors.org/industry_statistics/wsts_subscription_package/. 
April 2016 chart and graph
WSTS Spring Forecast Summary

http://www.semiconductors.org/news/2016/...2017_2018/
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