China Merchants Holdings Pacific

May I ask who are selling at a price lower than the offer price now?  Thanks..

^^ I think there are various possibilities:
- People who are worried that GO will fail
- People who need the money now, or have a better place to deploy the capital
- People who don't read the news

I myself have sold at lower price then GO before in other counters to deploy the money some where else especially when you guess they will not up the offer. also the offerror can keep on extending the offer till they get what they want and it will be many more mths before you get your money. Fund mgrs are also more likely to re-deploy this kind of "dead" money. They have to make their money work harder.

Don't count on Non activist fund managers to fight your better. Then rather sell and move on.
The threat of having unlisted securities is too much for them since they cannot hold unlisted shares.

Just to clarify to forumers based on my understanding:

1) Conditional means the GO may not go through if conditions unmet, so there is downside risk. So if you tender and GO no go you might not be able to sell immediately if you can't ascertain your share status in CDP? Technically it can be conditional on anything including if my dog died, except that SIC is not dead So usually it is conditional on 50%, 90%, AGM approval, whitewash waiver etc. This is under Companies Act. Once it becomes unconditional then it is better to tender than sell in market cause upside revision is built in "free" with no downside, unless you are rushing to get your money by paying brokerage.

2) Compulsory Acquisition is a bit of misnomer cause it is compulsory only if the acquirer or the members exercise their right. This is also under Companies Act. So it is possible that both doesn't exercise their rights and the acquirer owns 99.9% stake and it becomes a private / public unlisted company.

3) Nonetheless stock may be delisted if less than 10% float or less than 500 (?) shareholders. This is under the Listing manual and different from Companies Act. So if acquirer owns 91% of company, it may not trigger CA but stock will get delisted. So depends whether investors got appetite for unlisted public companies.

(11-05-2016, 10:45 AM)specuvestor Wrote: Just to clarify to forumers based on my understanding:

1) Conditional means the GO may not go through if conditions unmet, so there is downside risk. So if you tender and GO no go you might not be able to sell immediately if you can't ascertain your share status in CDP? Technically it can be conditional on anything including if my dog died, except that SIC is not dead So usually it is conditional on 50%, 90%, AGM approval, whitewash waiver etc. This is under Companies Act. Once it becomes unconditional then it is better to tender than sell in market cause upside revision is built in "free" with no downside, unless you are rushing to get your money by paying brokerage.

2) Compulsory Acquisition is a bit of misnomer cause it is compulsory only if the acquirer or the members exercise their right. This is also under Companies Act. So it is possible that both doesn't exercise their rights and the acquirer owns 99.9% stake and it becomes a private / public unlisted company.

3) Nonetheless stock may be delisted if less than 10% float or less than 500 (?) shareholders. This is under the Listing manual and different from Companies Act. So if acquirer owns 91% of company, it may not trigger CA but stock will get delisted. So depends whether investors got appetite for unlisted public companies.

To add-on,

1) I agree that it is no penalty to wait till unconditional, unless you want to get out earlier to sell in the market, with a small brokerage fee, and an opportunity cost of higher offer. No point to rush while conditional.

2) In the GO announcement, the company has stated to exercise the right, thus it is not an issue here. The statement is valid in general.

3) This is a more likely scenario in this case, IMO

yes I was actually stating in general, not specific for CMH, so that forumers can have a better idea of the mechanics and apply everywhere

(11-05-2016, 08:47 AM)sgtowkayneo Wrote: May I ask who are selling at a price lower than the offer price now?  Thanks..

Me.
I was so eager to dump the skank I couldn't wait any longer 

(11-05-2016, 08:47 AM)sgtowkayneo Wrote: May I ask who are selling at a price lower than the offer price now?  Thanks..

Thank you all for the responses and insights.  This is my first encounter of the delist thingy.  I guess I will wait for the offer document and accept it.  I think that the success rate of this offer is quite high.  Doesn't the offerer already hold 76%?  So, they are not too far from the 90% target.

Btw, what does GO stand for?

Thanks again..

(11-05-2016, 01:10 PM)sgtowkayneo Wrote:

(11-05-2016, 08:47 AM)sgtowkayneo Wrote: May I ask who are selling at a price lower than the offer price now?  Thanks..

Thank you all for the responses and insights.  This is my first encounter of the delist thingy.  I guess I will wait for the offer document and accept it.  I think that the success rate of this offer is quite high.  Doesn't the offerer already hold 76%?  So, they are not too far from the 90% target.

Btw, what does GO stand for?

Thanks again..

GO = General Offer or if you like Game Over. haha