China Merchants Holdings Pacific

(03-05-2016, 08:44 AM)starcraft_76 Wrote: 2016 Q1
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EPS: 9.07  (HK) cts = approx. 1.57 SGD cts

annualized approx. 6.28 cts (which is not sufficient to pay the 7 cts dividend, if CMHP can only pay dividend out of profit)

I have not looked into the report. A better way to look at the dividend payout sustainability, is free cash flow (FCF), rather than from accounting profit. It is more so with the company biz model.

(vested)

(03-05-2016, 09:26 AM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(03-05-2016, 08:44 AM)starcraft_76 Wrote: 2016 Q1
=====
EPS: 9.07  (HK) cts = approx. 1.57 SGD cts

annualized approx. 6.28 cts (which is not sufficient to pay the 7 cts dividend, if CMHP can only pay dividend out of profit)

I have not looked into the report. A better way to look at the dividend payout sustainability, is free cash flow (FCF), rather than from accounting profit. It is more so with the company biz model.

(vested)

China companies can only pay dividends out of profits. FCF is always way above 7 cents if historical data is anything to go by.

Since 2012, Q1 is always the worst quarter since CnY falls under Q1.

Unless we expect operating numbers to worsen, annualizing Q1 is not accurate in my opinion

The question of dividend sustainability was raised more than once during the recent AGM. Personally I am quite disappointed with the company's reply which is just to reiterate the target of 50% net profit payout. The company also confused some of us with its gearing calculation. Apparently they have 2 ways to calculate gearing which resulted in 59% and 43% respectively. The latter is based on interest bearing liabilities only.

(04-05-2016, 02:52 PM)touzi Wrote: The question of dividend sustainability was raised more than once during the recent AGM. Personally I am quite disappointed with the company's reply which is just to reiterate the target of 50% net profit payout. The company also confused some of us with its gearing calculation. Apparently they have 2 ways to calculate gearing which resulted in 59% and 43% respectively. The latter is based on interest bearing liabilities only.

Trading halt. Another acquisition? 

I don't think it is another acquisition since they have just done 3 acquisitions.If my guess is correct I think it will be a dual listing at HKSE. They mentioned about this possibility before. The majority owner can easily off load up to 20% of their share there. A lesser possibility is GO and then relist later in HK. whatever it is, looks like +ve move coming as the price has been trending up with good vol even though they announce poor set of 1st Q results. wait and see.

(06-05-2016, 03:26 PM)Jacmar Wrote: I don't think it is another acquisition since they have just done 3 acquisitions.If my guess is correct I think it will be a dual listing at HKSE. They mentioned about this possibility before. The majority owner can easily off load up to 20% of their share there. A lesser possibility is GO and then relist later in HK. whatever it is, looks like +ve move coming as the price has been trending up with good vol even though they announce poor set of 1st Q results. wait and see.

I share the same view. Listing in SEHK, is more likely than new acquisition. Let's see

(vested)

if listed in HK, it is good news.

normally, 红凑股 as HK call them, r valuable if it is SOE state-owned enterprise 

(06-05-2016, 04:43 PM)pattanispirit Wrote: if listed in HK, it is good news.

normally, 红凑股 as HK call them, r valuable if it is SOE state-owned enterprise 

I vaguely remember greengiraffe compared the valuations of CMPac with those listed in HK, I thought they were quite close. I hope its not some bad news like CEO run road etc.. 

Vested.

GO at $1.02 . Xian ah. Another good high yielding stock gone. Probably relist in hkse or even in china where valuations is much higher.

(09-05-2016, 07:34 AM)Jacmar Wrote: GO at $1.02 . Xian ah. Another good high yielding stock gone. Probably relist in hkse or even in china where valuations is much higher.

Probably. CMHP has a few advantages against the Chinese peers.

1) CMHP is a pure play toll road business. Most toll roads in HK have diversified to non-core business due to lack of attractive assets to acquire - Jiangsu in property and bank, Shenzhen in property, bank and going into environment, Zhejiang has securities.

2) CMHP has the highest dividend yield because its payout ratio is the highest. The other toll road operators maintain a much lower payout ratio: 40-70%

3) CMHP has a diversified portfolio in terms of the locations. Most of the toll road operators are owned by the local province government and they are named as such - Anhui, Shenzhen, Sichuan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang.

The only issue is that its market cap is smaller than the peers, although China Merchant can easily inject a few assets before relisting it.