Seatrium Limited (formerly SembCorp Marine and KOM)

(23-04-2016, 07:12 AM)Thaddy0103 Wrote: Good view from a certain perspective.
what I'm trying to cut across is simple, Sete Brasil impact on both Keppel and SCM do not simply impact the short to medium term of it outstanding order books cancellation and money owned which is respectively at 6billion and 7billion.Long term wise the depressed oil will affect the order win for them.orders and profits are not gonna to come in for them immediately even if oil reach $80.
In SGX case a recent article has come out to link it sudden price drop with the news that MAS and CAD has acted on Stock Exchange reports.
Taken the opportunity to accumulate more SGX shares.
Opportunity stems from crazy times like this lol

It's been some time since I divested SCM (at a loss) and hence I may not be updated on the accounting and outstanding receivables. But your 6/7billion numbers are definitely not accurate from order books cancellation+money owned perspective.

- SCM has stopped at the 4th drillship (refer to earlier posts by forumers). The last 3 were not built and so the cancellation (non cash related) is 2.4bil USD...With Sete Brasil declaring bankrupt soon, I think SCM has to account this cancellation into its outstanding order book in the next fiscal report period.
- The remaining 4drillships' orderbook size is 3.2bil USD. I do not have updated numbers on how much SCM has collected from Sete but the last note I had is that it has collected at least 10-20% for each rig (it means between 80mil*7 = 560mil to 160mil*7=1bil USD cash has been collected). With this, at least 1 rig has already been fully paid and this leaves us with ~2.2-2.7bil potential impairments.
- My guess is that SCM will at least take 2 of the 90% completed drillship and operate it themselves. In this way, they keep it on the books and just need to reverse previous profit recognition. Assume 15% net margins, that is ~240mil USD worth of impairments (it has recognized 329mil SGD in 4Q15) 
- Assuming the 2 remaining drillships are at 30-50% completed stage with 10% of the cost recoverable as scrap metal, it will most probably recognize another 600mil USD of work in progress stuff+previous profit reversals.

So in summary, my ball park guess is ~2.4bil USD order cancellation and ~1bil USD accounting loss recognition for the entire Sete deal.

(23-04-2016, 10:30 AM)weijian Wrote:

(23-04-2016, 07:12 AM)Thaddy0103 Wrote: Good view from a certain perspective.
what I'm trying to cut across is simple, Sete Brasil impact on both Keppel and SCM do not simply impact the short to medium term of it outstanding order books cancellation and money owned which is respectively at 6billion and 7billion.Long term wise the depressed oil will affect the order win for them.orders and profits are not gonna to come in for them immediately even if oil reach $80.
In SGX case a recent article has come out to link it sudden price drop with the news that MAS and CAD has acted on Stock Exchange reports.
Taken the opportunity to accumulate more SGX shares.
Opportunity stems from crazy times like this lol

It's been some time since I divested SCM (at a loss) and hence I may not be updated on the accounting and outstanding receivables. But your 6/7billion numbers are definitely not accurate from order books cancellation+money owned perspective.

- SCM has stopped at the 4th drillship (refer to earlier posts by forumers). The last 3 were not built and so the cancellation (non cash related) is 2.4bil USD...With Sete Brasil declaring bankrupt soon, I think SCM has to account this cancellation into its outstanding order book in the next fiscal report period.
- The remaining 4drillships' orderbook size is 3.2bil USD. I do not have updated numbers on how much SCM has collected from Sete but the last note I had is that it has collected at least 10-20% for each rig (it means between 80mil*7 = 560mil to 160mil*7=1bil USD cash has been collected). With this, at least 1 rig has already been fully paid and this leaves us with ~2.2-2.7bil potential impairments.
- My guess is that SCM will at least take 2 of the 90% completed drillship and operate it themselves. In this way, they keep it on the books and just need to reverse previous profit recognition. Assume 15% net margins, that is ~240mil USD worth of impairments (it has recognized 329mil SGD in 4Q15) 
- Assuming the 2 remaining drillships are at 30-50% completed stage with 10% of the cost recoverable as scrap metal, it will most probably recognize another 600mil USD of work in progress stuff+previous profit reversals.

So in summary, my ball park guess is ~2.4bil USD order cancellation and ~1bil USD accounting loss recognition for the entire Sete deal.

Just to add one reliable number for consideration. Based on AR2015, Sete has paid $2.7 bil so far for the orders (refer to page 17 on Chairman statement).

(not vested)

(23-04-2016, 09:42 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(23-04-2016, 10:30 AM)weijian Wrote:

(23-04-2016, 07:12 AM)Thaddy0103 Wrote: Good view from a certain perspective.
what I'm trying to cut across is simple, Sete Brasil impact on both Keppel and SCM do not simply impact the short to medium term of it outstanding order books cancellation and money owned which is respectively at 6billion and 7billion.Long term wise the depressed oil will affect the order win for them.orders and profits are not gonna to come in for them immediately even if oil reach $80.
In SGX case a recent article has come out to link it sudden price drop with the news that MAS and CAD has acted on Stock Exchange reports.
Taken the opportunity to accumulate more SGX shares.
Opportunity stems from crazy times like this lol

It's been some time since I divested SCM (at a loss) and hence I may not be updated on the accounting and outstanding receivables. But your 6/7billion numbers are definitely not accurate from order books cancellation+money owned perspective.

- SCM has stopped at the 4th drillship (refer to earlier posts by forumers). The last 3 were not built and so the cancellation (non cash related) is 2.4bil USD...With Sete Brasil declaring bankrupt soon, I think SCM has to account this cancellation into its outstanding order book in the next fiscal report period.
- The remaining 4drillships' orderbook size is 3.2bil USD. I do not have updated numbers on how much SCM has collected from Sete but the last note I had is that it has collected at least 10-20% for each rig (it means between 80mil*7 = 560mil to 160mil*7=1bil USD cash has been collected). With this, at least 1 rig has already been fully paid and this leaves us with ~2.2-2.7bil potential impairments.
- My guess is that SCM will at least take 2 of the 90% completed drillship and operate it themselves. In this way, they keep it on the books and just need to reverse previous profit recognition. Assume 15% net margins, that is ~240mil USD worth of impairments (it has recognized 329mil SGD in 4Q15) 
- Assuming the 2 remaining drillships are at 30-50% completed stage with 10% of the cost recoverable as scrap metal, it will most probably recognize another 600mil USD of work in progress stuff+previous profit reversals.

So in summary, my ball park guess is ~2.4bil USD order cancellation and ~1bil USD accounting loss recognition for the entire Sete deal.

Just to add one reliable number for consideration. Based on AR2015, Sete has paid $2.7 bil so far for the orders (refer to page 17 on Chairman statement).

(not vested)

The contract value for the first four drill ships are at about $3.2b or so (if i recall correctly each drill ship is approx $800m). As pointed out by CF, Sembcorp has received $2.7b. They had also written off ~$300m for the drill ships in the previous Qtr.

(23-04-2016, 09:57 PM)Art or Science Wrote:

(23-04-2016, 09:42 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(23-04-2016, 10:30 AM)pid='128616 Wrote: Just to add one reliable number for consideration. Based on AR2015, Sete has paid $2.7 bil so far for the orders (refer to page 17 on Chairman statement).

(not vested)

The contract value for the first four drill ships are at about $3.2b or so (if i recall correctly each drill ship is approx $800m). As pointed out by CF, Sembcorp has received $2.7b. They had also written off ~$300m for the drill ships in the previous Qtr.

Hi CF/AoS,
I should have taken the trouble to read up the latest AR and not depended on my previous notes that were at least 9 months old. Thanks for correcting my numbers.

(23-04-2016, 11:25 PM)weijian Wrote:

(23-04-2016, 09:57 PM)Art or Science Wrote:

(23-04-2016, 09:42 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(23-04-2016, 10:30 AM)pid=\128616 Wrote:Just to add one reliable number for consideration. Based on AR2015, Sete has paid $2.7 bil so far for the orders (refer to page 17 on Chairman statement).

(not vested)

The contract value for the first four drill ships are at about $3.2b or so (if i recall correctly each drill ship is approx $800m). As pointed out by CF, Sembcorp has received $2.7b. They had also written off ~$300m for the drill ships in the previous Qtr.

Hi CF/AoS,
I should have taken the trouble to read up the latest AR and not depended on my previous notes that were at least 9 months old. Thanks for correcting my numbers.

I would like to remind, one common mistake of mine, is the failure to differentiate US$ and S$ figures in ARs. It is more so for AR which uses $ as S$, rather than US$.

Another point is, the contract value of $3.2 billion (is US$ right?) is an estimation (by weijian and others?), while the $2.7 billion (i guess is S$) is the announced figure.

I hope I didn't create more confusion than clarification. 

(not vested)

(24-04-2016, 10:28 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: [quote pid='128647' dateline='1461425120']
I would like to remind, one common mistake of mine, is the failure to differentiate US$ and S$ figures in ARs. It is more so for AR which uses $ as S$, rather than US$.

Another point is, the contract value of $3.2 billion (is US$ right?) is an estimation (by weijian and others?), while the $2.7 billion (i guess is S$) is the announced figure.

I hope I didn't create more confusion than clarification. 

(not vested)

[/quote]

3.2bil is USD. The first ever drill ship was 792.5mil USD and the rest of the 6 were all 806mi USD. But I think we can approximate it to 3.2bil USD for the first 4 drillships that are WIP. Since SCM reports in SGD, 2.7bil collection (or 1.9-2bil USD) is in SGD.

http://oilpro.com/post/24009/ultra-deepw...nts-dollar
http://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/ocean...t-auction/

Drillship leased to Petrobras, but had its contract cancelled midway through. Built at $608 million cost, purchased at $692 million in 2011, five years on, sold at $65 million.

Five years old drillship, only utilized for 3 years. Practically brand new. Wonder what is the real worth of Semb Marine's $3.66 Billion inventories.

ocean rig is a shrewd operator indeed! S$65m can get 6th Generation 5 years old Drillship! gosh!

Fire-sale started already!!!

WAT A STEAL!!

IIRC, Keppel isn't one of the defendants...

Sembcorp and SembMarine face lawsuit linked to Sete Brasil

SINGAPORE (May 25): Sembcorp Industries (SCI) and Sembcorp Marine (SembMarine) have been named as defendants in a lawsuit filed by EIG Management Company, a fund management company based in Washington, US.

The lawsuit pertains to EIG's investments of over US$221 million ($305.2 million) in troubled Sete Brasil that may soon declare bankruptcy.

It was filed in the United States District Court, District of Columbia, though SCI says it has yet to be served with the court papers in relation to the lawsuit.

But if served, the company will "rigorously contest" the claim in consultation with its legal advisors.
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...ete-brasil

(25-05-2016, 09:25 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: IIRC, Keppel isn't one of the defendants...

Sembcorp and SembMarine face lawsuit linked to Sete Brasil

SINGAPORE (May 25): Sembcorp Industries (SCI) and Sembcorp Marine (SembMarine) have been named as defendants in a lawsuit filed by EIG Management Company, a fund management company based in Washington, US.

The lawsuit pertains to EIG's investments of over US$221 million ($305.2 million) in troubled Sete Brasil that may soon declare bankruptcy.

It was filed in the United States District Court, District of Columbia, though SCI says it has yet to be served with the court papers in relation to the lawsuit.

But if served, the company will "rigorously contest" the claim in consultation with its legal advisors.
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...ete-brasil

If Reuters got it right, then Keppel Corp is named in the suit too.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL3...ialsSector