Saizen REIT

(13-03-2016, 09:25 AM)wealthchew Wrote: what will happen if i invested at $0.090.pls advise

I bought at $1.11 after they announce selling off at $1.16. 
Bought it at a time when Singapore market was bad and
all other stock was falling. Thought at least can earn $0.04
in this type of lousy market vs putting money in bank.

The recent upswing in market cause every stock to go up.
Never expect Saizen to be the current price. Will hold till it
get delisted to save on brokerage fee. 

There is rumour that a Chinese REIT may use Saizen as a RTO. 
Maybe that's why it is trading at current price after ex dividend. 

Buying now at $0.08 do not have much to gain unless
really RTO. 

Vested little.

(13-03-2016, 02:18 PM)Tcc Wrote:

(13-03-2016, 09:25 AM)wealthchew Wrote: what will happen if i invested at $0.090.pls advise

I bought at $1.11 after they announce selling off at $1.16. 
Bought it at a time when Singapore market was bad and
all other stock was falling. Thought at least can earn $0.04
in this type of lousy market vs putting money in bank.

The recent upswing in market cause every stock to go up.
Never expect Saizen to be the current price. Will hold till it
get delisted to save on brokerage fee. 

There is rumour that a Chinese REIT may use Saizen as a RTO. 
Maybe that's why it is trading at current price after ex dividend. 

Buying now at $0.08 do not have much to gain unless
really RTO. 

Vested little.

Implied liquidation value is S$1.146, there's also the accrued income from the 1st Jan '16 to completion (~S$0.01++)... So total should add up to about S$1.16 if nothing goes wrong. 

So buying now at S$0.09 have a potential gain ~1 cent per share or 2 cents per share if buying at current market price.

Looks like ASM is buying. Maybe they have other plans.

I think is a big heist taken place. But I see most still unawares of what has really happened.


This really has to do with nirp that was announced by BOJ in Jan 2016, I'm surprised no discussion here of this.


Probably prior to that big insiders already gotten wind of BOJ upcoming moves and pre-positioned themselves such as buying out all the properties of saizen.


nirp or negative interest rate policy basically a tax on savings deposits, forcing people to go out spend money or risk eroding their savings over time. When it was announced I remember reading several japanese pension fund managers came out publicly to raise concerns.


That's also another reason why saizen gave such a big payout by then they probably realized too late because nirp would have affected them too now that they come in to so much cash, so essentially what offeror has done is exchange their losing value paper yen for hard assets in a nirp or zirp environment.


I think on hindsight maybe saizen management should not have sold out for such a small premium it's a big steal for the pension funds. Maybe instead
partial sell off properties to pare down the existing debt wait for higher revaluation.



I dunno how much tmk fund size but as an example when you consider 3 biggest japanese pension fund combine USD 259 billion and BOJ negative interest of 0.1% how much they would have loss and the nihon gov stolen.


Also read up what nirp has done to places like sweden and denmark created a property bubble in a mere 3 years and saizen had over 130 FH properties that could have been revalued or sold off at far far higher prices.

Why do you think they only just offer to buy all the meat but left you the bone? LOL  not vested.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-22...rest-rates

(21-03-2016, 10:18 AM)sgd Wrote: I think is a big heist taken place. But I see most still unawares of what has really happened.


This really has to do with nirp that was announced by BOJ in Jan 2016, I'm surprised no discussion here of this.

.....

I think on hindsight maybe saizen management should not have sold out for such a small premium it's a big steal for the pension funds. Maybe instead
partial sell off properties to pare down the existing debt wait for higher revaluation.

We already knew that and it was already discussed that the premium is too low. Check earlier in the thread. But we also acknowledged that those who know can't do much about it.

On the other hand, NIRP is not a given. 2 years down the road, the govt could easily reverse itself. Also NIRP does not necessarily lead to inflated assets (though likely, it is not certain). Not to forget also that a NIRP has a tendency to weaken the ccy

Overall, I'd say TMK got a pretty good deal. But it isn't a "heist" as you said.

(21-03-2016, 11:41 AM)tanjm Wrote:

(21-03-2016, 10:18 AM)sgd Wrote: I think is a big heist taken place. But I see most still unawares of what has really happened.


This really has to do with nirp that was announced by BOJ in Jan 2016, I'm surprised no discussion here of this.

.....

I think on hindsight maybe saizen management should not have sold out for such a small premium it's a big steal for the pension funds. Maybe instead
partial sell off properties to pare down the existing debt wait for higher revaluation.

We already knew that and it was already discussed that the premium is too low. Check earlier in the thread. But we also acknowledged that those who know can't do much about it.

On the other hand, NIRP is not a given. 2 years down the road, the govt could easily reverse itself. Also NIRP does not necessarily lead to inflated assets (though likely, it is not certain).

Overall, I'd say TMK got a pretty good deal. But it isn't a "heist" as you said.

A country like japan with nirp environment I think is bad for their banking insurance stocks as it affect their earnings

but generally good for their property reits because borrowing costs come down but flip side higher property prices makes harder acquisitions.

I think those who own saizen prior to the sale would have made out ok.

But those that bought after it remain to be seen what is saizen's next play going to be.

If you are so convinced it is a near certainty, there is one other property counter with Japanese assets on sgx.

(21-03-2016, 12:58 PM)tanjm Wrote: If you are so convinced it is a near certainty, there is one other property counter with Japanese assets on sgx.

It's the right word "near certainty" in a NIRP environment

what can Pension funds invest in to not only protect but get a return?

if bonds are out, banks and insurance out

if you read the trouble what near ZIRP has done to pension funds in America

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-18...oodys-says

http://saizenreit.com.sg/wp-content/uplo...n-Chan.pdf

One of majority shareholder increase his stake via open market purchase @ avg price of 8.93 cts.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companie...to-develop

Saizen Reit manager to allow more time for 'exploratory enquiries' to develop
By
Lee Meixian
JUN 6, 20165:48 PM
THE manager of Saizen Reit on Monday said that the liability claim period under its agreement with Triangle TMK has expired, and Triangle TMK has made no further claims.

It added that there have recently been exploratory enquiries on potential opportunities for Saizen Reit, so it will be giving more time to see if any enquiry develops further.

It added: "In the event that a transaction does not materialise from the above by the end of June 2016, the manager intends to commence liquidation proceedings for Saizen Reit."

Saizen Reit had completed the divestment of its entire portfolio of real estate assets to Triangle TMK, a Japanese affiliate of Lone Star Real Estate Fund IV and Lone Star Funds, for 44.7 billion yen (S$542.8 million) in March this year.

Analysts expect the Reit to eventually be delisted.