China Economic News

(03-03-2016, 09:37 AM)Bibi Wrote:

(03-03-2016, 09:27 AM)jjlim84 Wrote: betting against China is the last thing on my mind.. A stronger China only means good for all of us, especially Asia Chinese. Gone were the days of Japanese MNCs, I used to work in one before, their style of management has been obsolete, which tend to protect their ownselves, though now they are starting to change

If I have to choose, I rather work for Jap firm than a Chinese firm. The Jap takes care of themselves. I have the impression that the Chinese companies are more profit oriented and bosses take care of themselves. Even Chinese locals dont like to work for Chinese private firms.

I would work for neither
Chinese companies take care only of themselves? China's economy importance to the whole region is undescribable, we are reaping the fruits from them. One thing important, they are definitely more open in their approach compared to Japan

(03-03-2016, 06:54 AM)Bibi Wrote:

(01-03-2016, 04:14 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(01-03-2016, 12:57 PM)weijian Wrote: Personally, I would say that betting against China's long term future, is similar to trying to bet against US's long term future which has odds that Warren Buffet suggests is not good.

I like the last sentence. I concur.  

I am not so sure about its long term future. I wont bet against it, neither will I bet for it. I wonder whether did anybody made the same statement when Japan also became a super economic power after World War 2. I believe the Japanese also do not have any lack of talents. But we do know what happened to Japan's economy now. I see the way the talented Chinese authorities flip flop on their policies doesn't give much confidence to me. The country may be strong now, but one thing I observed is its pp are not as united compared to Japan and USA.

Some of Japanese inventions are: Compact disk player, first portable calculators, high speed bullet train etc.. Chinese notable inventions I can remember are paper, fire powder, chop sticks , bicycle ?, compass etc.

I reckon the Japs are actually a reminder that China will do much better. Japs succumbed to the Plaza Accord - They allowed a sharp appreciation of their yen vs the USD/German marks, their 2 main industrial rivals, in the 1980s. The sharp appreciation rendered their exports not competitive anymore and it might have been 1 of the causes of their eventual demise. Their Chinese counterparts seem to have studied history well, learnt its lessons and never succumb to the relentless pressure outsiders gave towards them to appreciate their currency in the 1990s/2000s (still remember the days that Obama almost labelled China a 'currency manipulator'?). The Chinese seems to understand that any currency movements, should only be based on their own terms and conditions, because only themselves will look out for their own interests.

You don't need a lot of creativity and inventive power to be dominant really. I believe prosperity and such inventive power are not the same ting. The Chinese invented gunpowder but the foreigners were the ones who fitted in on their boats to force the Qing Dynasty into submission during the Opium War. Using an example closer at home, I don't think Spore came to prosperity via their CREATIVE-vity (pun intended )

That said, I don't know how and when China will succeed, although I am sure it will. Along the way, there will be 2nd order effects that seemingly seem to throw it off the path (the examples are the unintended effects of their ways to cool the stock markets, introduce circuit breakers....most of these actions create a secondary effects that were not obvious for the simple), but She will find her own unique way to succeed, just like how SG found her (own unique) formula.

just watching bloomberg news live from beijing. Behind the reporter is just hazy background as bad as when we have PSI 300+

Beijing Real-time Air Quality Index (AQI).
A check on http://aqicn.org/city/beijing/

shows 359 Hazardous levels today. I think beijing's bigger problem is their pollution problem rather than their economy or what not. The city of millions is like a freakin' deathtrap. If it weren' a communist country, the people would be demonstrating on the streets everyday.

"Personally, I would say that betting against China's long term future, is similar to trying to bet against US's long term future which has odds that Warren Buffet suggests is not good."

Yes that may be true. It applies to the STI index too where over the long run, it has been up.
However what concerns me now is the mid term of China economic outlook. Going to China/Hk last year, on ground conditions among China cities don't look like a country going through 7% growth; hence my skepticism. I have learnt that sometimes "scuttlebugging" is probably the best way when data is not reliable. Markets move in cycles and a proportion of pricing of securities is based on the expected growth of the company. If a company is projected to grow at 6%, but under performs at 2-3%; prices drop.

Environmental engineering is probably China's best engine of growth. However, to grow its talent pool here will take years and there are about 10 years worth of Chinese workers cohort who have been working in the now oversize manufacturing/steel. Transiting them to environment/services will not be easy, as skills have to be relearn. In economics, we call this structural unemployment

China's Rebalancing Is Overrated

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/20...overstated

(04-03-2016, 01:16 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: China's Rebalancing Is Overrated

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/20...overstated

good article, the devil is in the details sounds like China is already well on its way to deflation.

No way any consumer/services growth is going to be able to replace the crazy property construction boom and the Made in China manufacturing sector that easily.

Japan 2.0 akan datang.

I am posting this under China thread since HK is a SEZ . Hope it's ok.



Hong Kong’s days as a thriving financial hub may be numbered

http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opin...e-numbered


The author of this article is Cheah Cheng Hye of Value Partners.


The truth is, however, that Hong Kong’s competitive strengths are front-loaded. We are strong today partly because mainland Chinese financial systems are defective, but this state of affairs may not last for many more years.
And even if China’s domestic shortcomings persist, it still can reduce its dependence on Hong Kong by making more use of other places, such as London and Singapore. That’s what happened to the luxury goods business, which shifted away from Hong Kong to Japan and Europe. Even the stock connect schemes pioneered here are not a Hong Kong monopoly; at Beijing s pleasure, such schemes can be offered to other locations.
What’s needed today – and what’s not happening – is for Hong Kong to have a long-term plan and make consistent efforts to ensure it remains competitive. But this is a society that likes to live in the past, rather than look to the future.



The medium-term prospect looks uncertain, even worrying. As the mainland deregulates, Hong Kong-based financial institutions are expanding their physical presence on the Chinese mainland, to diversify from depending too much on Hong Kong alone.

With a base population of 1.3b, it is hard to discount China's economic potential. It will only need 25% of per capita GDP to tie US in term of total GDP output.
If one takes a longer historical perspective, China is merely reclaiming its spot as the world economic powerhouse since the collapse of Qing dynasty.

Looking at the projects planned under the CPC goverment's 13th 5-year plans, it is encouraging to see that many of these projects are related to new technology. This underlines the Chinese government's desire to spearhead innovation instead of copying technology from the more advanced economy.

http://business.sohu.com/20160306/n439519020.shtml
十三五”期间中国要上的100个大项目


I am more pessimistic on the Chinese financial market for 3 reasons. Firstly, the stock market does not mirror the economy. Economic growth does not translate to financial market growth and vice versa. Secondly, the financial market is heavily watched and have high propensity of intervention by the government. Lastly, State owned enterprise (SOE) still play an influential role in China economy, and they tend to be more politically influenced than economically influenced.

Having said this, i will place my bet on companies that can ride on growth of China's economy instead of the China financial market itself.
My 2 cents.

Reality check for the market.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...tic-demand

China's Export Slump Shows Growth Push Hinges on Local Demand
China’s export slump deepened in February, highlighting the challenge for policy makers seeking to keep the economy humming at home while trade acts as a brake on growth.

The week-long Chinese new year holidays fell in February this year, closing factories and curbing shipments. That saw exports tumble 25.4 percent in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, the biggest decline since May 2009. Imports extended a streak of declines to 16 months, slumping 13.8 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $32.6 billion. 

A slowdown in global trade is making it harder for China’s leaders, who are gathered in Beijing this week to set the nation’s economic plans, to keep growth at the targeted 6.5 percent to 7 percent range. After early declines,

New catch phrase - TOBIN TAX

China Drafts Rules for Tobin Tax on Currency Transactions

China’s central bank has drafted rules for a tax on foreign-exchange transactions that would help curb currency speculation, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
QuickTake The People’s Currency
The initial rate of the so-called Tobin tax may be kept at zero to allow authorities time to refine the rules, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the discussions are private. The tax is not designed to disrupt hedging and other foreign-exchange transactions undertaken by companies, they said.

Imposing a levy on foreign-exchange trading would be the most extreme step yet by policy makers to prevent speculative bets against the Chinese currency, after state-run banks repeatedly intervened to support the yuan and the government intensified a crackdown on capital outflows. A Tobin tax would complicate plans by China to create an international reserve currency and could undermine the leadership’s pledge to increase the role of market forces in the world’s second-largest economy.