S'pore home prices still falling

The answer from gov, as of now...

Too early to relax property cooling measures: Lawrence Wong

SINGAPORE — It is “too early” to relax the property market cooling measures, as doing so could result in a market rebound, Mr Lawrence Wong said in Parliament on Monday (Feb 29).
...
http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/too...rence-wong

I notice this MP is SO EAGER.

"Holland Bukit-Timah GRC MP Christopher de Souza, who asked if the Government would consider removing the Additional Buyers Stamp Duty (ABSD) for Singaporeans but retaining it for foreigners.

Mr de Souza had first mooted the idea in Parliament in January."

and I thought Mr Wong reply is Excellent. Which meant is clearly targeted on speculation than needs.

"“The Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) was introduced to moderate the demand for residential property from investors, non-citizens and corporate entities. Singapore citizens who do not own any residential property do not need to pay ABSD,” Mr Wong said in a written reply."

it seems like there are ppl with reserved bullets waiting on the sidelines waiting to pounce..

(01-03-2016, 10:19 AM)jjlim84 Wrote: it seems like there are ppl with reserved bullets waiting on the sidelines waiting to pounce..

I believe as well. There is a lot of cash in the system and they aren't going anywhere far. They will be released one day just don't know when.

(01-03-2016, 11:17 AM)corydorus Wrote:

(01-03-2016, 10:19 AM)jjlim84 Wrote: it seems like there are ppl with reserved bullets waiting on the sidelines waiting to pounce..

I believe as well. There is a lot of cash in the system and they aren't going anywhere far. They will be released one day just don't know when.

We are still at ~zero interest rates and that has to mean huge liquidity compared to historical trends of 20-30years, although it may have slightly tightened in the last 12-18months (end of QE infinity and start of Fed rates tightening).

Nonetheless, I do believe that while those with reserved bullets maybe aplenty, but those with the conditions to really act on it, are the minority. Liquidity is a funny thing - When you don't need it, you get plenty. But when you need it, you don't get any (or suddenly a lot of restrictions pop out all of a sudden to create new constraints). Our little brain doesn't seem to understand correlations very well. When things get really tough and it is time to buy, besides the reserved bullets that is already available, suddenly new things like job security (if you are the average OPMI) or willingness of the lender pops up.

It will be great for those who already have reserved bullets to do a stress test to decide what's best to proceed, when the going really gets tougher. A stress test personalized that is brutally frank and consider 'wild' scenarios. That's the BKM (best known method) that all the leading authorities are using on their banks.

many ppl who are waiting on the sideline to buy their second or third ppty.
they are just waiting for absd to be reduced or removed

(01-03-2016, 12:42 PM)funman168 Wrote: many ppl who are waiting on the sideline to buy their second or third ppty.
they are just waiting for absd to be reduced or removed

I guess that's why the government is ramping up the supply, a 'marginally oversupply of housing' is always not a bad idea, as Mr Liu Thai Ker once said

In a low interest rate environment(and in some parts of the world, negative interest rate), assets tend to inflate if the jobless rate/economy holds steady. It will deflate as interest rates move up. My guess is that the ASBD may only be removed when housing prices have come down somewhat and the interest rate has crept up. Property is a lot less attractive when interest rates are high and current yields are almost at historic lows.

A small adjustment amid the pressure...

Government eases DC rates for key use groups
02 Mar 2016 09:00
By Kalpana Rashiwala

AMID the overall price and rental weakness across various segments of the property market, the government has trimmed development charge rates for most of the major use groups for the Mar 1 to Aug 31 period this year.

Development charge (DC) is payable for enhancing the use of some sites or to build bigger projects on them.

On average, DC rates have been trimmed for industrial use by 3 per cent, followed by cuts of 2 per cent each for commercial and hotel/hospital uses. For non-landed residential use, the average DC rate has been shaved by one per cent. However, the rates for landed residential use were left untouched as were the rates for place of worship/civic and community institution, and other use groups.

The latest rates were announced on Monday evening by the Ministry of National Development, which, in consultation with the Chief Valuer, revises DC rates twice a year - on March 1 and Sept 1. The rates are stated according to use groups across 118 geographical sectors in Singapore.
...
Tan Tiong Cheng, Knight Frank

Source: Business Times

DC mainly affects redevelopment, enbloc, extension of L99 tenure. Not much impact for developers with existing inventory.

Usually DC are derived from market prices, but I guess Chief Valuer has some leeway in using which market transactions in the calculations.