cyclone's portfolio

(02-01-2016, 07:23 PM)cyclone Wrote:

(31-12-2015, 10:58 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: Making outsized bets? Sounds like u transitioning towards a more concentrated strategy?

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Concentrated strategy is temporary only. I still prefer wide diversification, around 30+.

But if the "concentrated strategy" ends up with a "concentrated loss" (i hope not), won't that wipe out all the effort of diversification that you had done in the past? In fact it could be a loss the portfolio will take a long time to recover from....

Anyways, good luck, myself prefer around 10 stocks or less.

(02-01-2016, 09:53 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: But if the "concentrated strategy" ends up with a "concentrated loss" (i hope not), won't that wipe out all the effort of diversification that you had done in the past? In fact it could be a loss the portfolio will take a long time to recover from....

Anyways, good luck, myself prefer around 10 stocks or less.

I did simulations on spreadsheet. What if the counter has a permanent loss, what if it goes to zero, and other scenarios, what impact to the portfolio.
If it really goes to zero, there will be many years setback for the portfolio. But I think I can still accept the risk, so I just went ahead.
Thanks for the reminder.

(03-01-2016, 01:40 PM)cyclone Wrote:

(02-01-2016, 09:53 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: But if the "concentrated strategy" ends up with a "concentrated loss" (i hope not), won't that wipe out all the effort of diversification that you had done in the past? In fact it could be a loss the portfolio will take a long time to recover from....

Anyways, good luck, myself prefer around 10 stocks or less.

I did simulations on spreadsheet. What if the counter has a permanent loss, what if it goes to zero, and other scenarios, what impact to the portfolio.
If it really goes to zero, there will be many years setback for the portfolio. But I think I can still accept the risk, so I just went ahead.
Thanks for the reminder.

No problem. It just seems to me that there is just too much of an element of greed with the IPC bet. Not certain what is your average buy price but if one did not get in at $1+ price, at around $2 the risk of it going back to $1 is higher than if it were to hit NAV price $2+. With the current rising interest rate macro environment, property counter is just playing with fire, especially one at all time highs.

(03-01-2016, 09:45 PM)BlueKelah Wrote:

(03-01-2016, 01:40 PM)cyclone Wrote:

(02-01-2016, 09:53 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: But if the "concentrated strategy" ends up with a "concentrated loss" (i hope not), won't that wipe out all the effort of diversification that you had done in the past? In fact it could be a loss the portfolio will take a long time to recover from....

Anyways, good luck, myself prefer around 10 stocks or less.

I did simulations on spreadsheet. What if the counter has a permanent loss, what if it goes to zero, and other scenarios, what impact to the portfolio.
If it really goes to zero, there will be many years setback for the portfolio. But I think I can still accept the risk, so I just went ahead.
Thanks for the reminder.

No problem. It just seems to me that there is just too much of an element of greed with the IPC bet. Not certain what is your average buy price but if one did not get in at $1+ price, at around $2 the risk of it going back to $1 is higher than if it were to hit NAV price $2+. With the current rising interest rate macro environment, property counter is just playing with fire, especially one at all time highs.

"With the current rising interest rate macro environment, property counter is just playing with fire, especially one at all time highs."

the devil is in the details. If a company has zero debt, super low cost landbank and tons of pre-sales that going to be TOP and still trading below NAV at cost, then is it still playing with fire?

concentrated portfolio of what? proven, high conviction stocks? OR unproven, "developing conviction/tikam" stocks?

Portfolio update for the month of January 2016

STI started the year at 2882.73 ended at 2629.11 as at 31 January 2016, a rout of 8.8% in a month.
My portfolio is not spared from the carnage either.
To quote the wise man, no prizes for guessing :

Quote:To refer to a personal taste of mine, I’m going to buy hamburgers the rest of my life.
When hamburgers go down in price, we sing the 'Hallelujah Chorus' in the Buffett household.
When hamburgers go up in price, we weep.
For most people, it's the same with everything in life they will be buying — except stocks.
When stocks go down and you can get more for your money, people don't like them anymore.

Received some shares from ITC Corporation as I chose to receive dividend in scrip.

As usual, cash is minimal so no bullets to shoot.  No sell no buy in the month.

Portfolio as at 31 January 2016 :
1. CHINA MINZHONG FOOD CORPORATION
2. ELEC & ELTEK (US$)
3. ENVICTUS INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS
4. FRASERS CENTREPOINT LIMITED
5. FRENCKEN GROUP
6. GP INDUSTRIES
7. IPC CORPORATION
8. KARIN TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS
9. LUXKING GROUP HOLDINGS
10. M1
11. NEW TOYO
12. PCI
13. PEC
14. POWERMATIC DATA SYSTEMS
15. SAN TEH
16. St****** CORPORATION
17. WILLAS-ARRAY ELECTRONICS

HONG KONG LISTED COMPANIES :
1. HARBOUR CENTRE DEVELOPMENT
2. ITC CORPORATION
3. NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT COMPANY

Portfolio update for the month of February 2016.

STI started the month at 2629.11 ended at 2666.51 as at 29 February 2016, a tad better.

IPC trades ex-capital distribution of SGD 1.6 per share now.
Elec & Eltek, Karin Technology, San Teh announced disappointing results for the financial year ended 31 December 2015, but there will be dividends to be received. For the financial year ended 31 December 2015, Luxking was a total disappointment,  Frencken was bit better, IPC and New Toyo performed well, Harbour Centre Development upped the dividend. 

As usual, cash is minimal. Cash proceeds from IPC will only be available around 5 April 2016.  No sell no buy in the month.

Portfolio as at 29 February 2016 :
1. CHINA MINZHONG FOOD CORPORATION
2. ELEC & ELTEK (US$)
3. ENVICTUS INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS
4. FRASERS CENTREPOINT LIMITED
5. FRENCKEN GROUP
6. GP INDUSTRIES
7. IPC CORPORATION
8. KARIN TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS
9. LUXKING GROUP HOLDINGS
10. M1
11. NEW TOYO
12. PCI
13. PEC
14. POWERMATIC DATA SYSTEMS
15. SAN TEH
16. St****** CORPORATION
17. WILLAS-ARRAY ELECTRONICS

HONG KONG LISTED COMPANIES :
1. HARBOUR CENTRE DEVELOPMENT
2. ITC CORPORATION
3. NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT COMPANY

Portfolio update for the month of March 2016.

STI started the month at 2666.51 ended at 2840.90 as at 31 March 2016, recovered much of what it lost in the month of January 2016.

Not much activity in the month of March 2016. I bought Chow Sang Sang which is listed on Hong Kong Exchange.

As at 31 March, cash is minimal. Just received capital reduction proceeds from IPC, so cash is substantial now.

Portfolio as at 31 March 2016 :
1. CHINA MINZHONG FOOD CORPORATION
2. ELEC & ELTEK (US$)
3. ENVICTUS INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS
4. FRASERS CENTREPOINT LIMITED
5. FRENCKEN GROUP
6. GP INDUSTRIES
7. IPC CORPORATION
8. KARIN TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS
9. LUXKING GROUP HOLDINGS
10. M1
11. NEW TOYO
12. PCI
13. PEC
14. POWERMATIC DATA SYSTEMS
15. SAN TEH
16. St****** CORPORATION
17. WILLAS-ARRAY ELECTRONICS

HONG KONG LISTED COMPANIES :
1. CHOW SANG SANG HOLDINGS INTERNATIONAL
2. HARBOUR CENTRE DEVELOPMENT
3. ITC CORPORATION
4. NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT COMPANY

(03-01-2016, 09:45 PM)BlueKelah Wrote:

(03-01-2016, 01:40 PM)cyclone Wrote:

(02-01-2016, 09:53 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: But if the "concentrated strategy" ends up with a "concentrated loss" (i hope not), won't that wipe out all the effort of diversification that you had done in the past? In fact it could be a loss the portfolio will take a long time to recover from....

Anyways, good luck, myself prefer around 10 stocks or less.

I did simulations on spreadsheet. What if the counter has a permanent loss, what if it goes to zero, and other scenarios, what impact to the portfolio.
If it really goes to zero, there will be many years setback for the portfolio. But I think I can still accept the risk, so I just went ahead.
Thanks for the reminder.

No problem. It just seems to me that there is just too much of an element of greed with the IPC bet. Not certain what is your average buy price but if one did not get in at $1+ price, at around $2 the risk of it going back to $1 is higher than if it were to hit NAV price $2+. With the current rising interest rate macro environment, property counter is just playing with fire, especially one at all time highs.

Nice hit on IPC, admin! It was quite obvious that $2 was a bargain especially when the company was paying out $1.60. Wonderful "workout" opportunity. IMHO, the tough part was on the position sizing which I think you did well too. Congrats!

Let's wait for the stock to get back to $1.

Thanks cif5000.

The remaining properties have long been categorized under "Properties developed for sale".
Hope someone is interested to gobble it up.

(08-04-2016, 06:00 PM)cyclone Wrote: Portfolio update for the month of March 2016.

STI started the month at 2666.51 ended at 2840.90 as at 31 March 2016, recovered much of what it lost in the month of January 2016.

Not much activity in the month of March 2016. I bought Chow Sang Sang which is listed on Hong Kong Exchange.

As at 31 March, cash is minimal. Just received capital reduction proceeds from IPC, so cash is substantial now.

Portfolio as at 31 March 2016 :
1. CHINA MINZHONG FOOD CORPORATION
2. ELEC & ELTEK (US$)
3. ENVICTUS INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS
4. FRASERS CENTREPOINT LIMITED
5. FRENCKEN GROUP
6. GP INDUSTRIES
7. IPC CORPORATION
8. KARIN TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS
9. LUXKING GROUP HOLDINGS
10. M1
11. NEW TOYO
12. PCI
13. PEC
14. POWERMATIC DATA SYSTEMS
15. SAN TEH
16. St****** CORPORATION
17. WILLAS-ARRAY ELECTRONICS

HONG KONG LISTED COMPANIES :
1. CHOW SANG SANG HOLDINGS INTERNATIONAL
2. HARBOUR CENTRE DEVELOPMENT
3. ITC CORPORATION
4. NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT COMPANY

Can consider having some exposure to the growing life science sector with your substantial cash. CEI offers indirect exposure to the life science sector.