China Fishery Group

(17-04-2015, 10:38 PM)crabcrab Wrote: China fishery ($0.185) - Maybe time to re-explore in this fishy company after issuance of right issue.. At this price, all negative news might have been factored in.. Good Luck....

China Fishery ($0.23) - Spotted!...and today's closing price is about 29.72% higher from the previous posting in only about a month's time. Is there more room to climb? Any views?

Not much has been discussed on China Fishery as it makes its transition of paring down its debts.

As of 3Q Fy 15 results, it seems interesting to me. While its operating cash flow is negative for the 9M, it is worth noting due to seasonal factors; Q3 inventories increase the most before it goes down again. Hence it is likely for the full year, China Fishery will be cash flow positive from its operations. Furthermore, its debt expense will be reduced by about 20m, with the redemption of its 9% bonds. Lastly, the company will be receiving about USD 60m in cash//fish supply from the termination of its LSA agreement for the next 4 quarters.

The sticking point is that China Fishery still has a 9.75% note due in 2019 which in my view, I hope the company redeems it as it is quite hefty. Its bank term loans range from 1+% to 3+%. It is likely China Fishery will generate approx 61m USD of cash across the next 4 quarters, which translates to about USD 2 cents or 2.5 SG cents. At current price of 0.158, what are your opinions of it. Look forward to the comments given that I am looking mainly at the numbers and do not have a large amount of knowledge on the fish supply market except from these 11 pages of posts.

<not vested>

Vested China Fishery at 0.070, 0.071, 0.082 and 0.083

While the announcement last night was due to investigations by regulatory authority, I do not think the damage will be so extensive to warrant such a sell down today.

Barring any investigations which reveals fraudulent account or over estimation of inventories, I believe China fishery's business is undervalued. Moving forward, China Fishery is likely to start reporting positive cash flow generation because it has greatly reduced its purchase of PPE for this FY unlike previous financial years since 2006. Furthermore with a dividend policy of 30%, one can expect about 0.3 SG cents dividend to be given this year ( I estimate 0.8 USD cents of earnings to be reported). Lastly, I expect an increase of profit by USD34m; 22.5 million from not needing to pay its 9% US $250 million bond and USD 11.5M from being able to fish in the upcoming season B. An increase in 34M of profits translates to an increase of 0.9 USD cents.

Hence I expect next FY, China Fishery will earn 1.7 USD cents (approx 2.3 SG cents). At its current price, I think there is value barring any financial fraud or cancellation fishing seasons.

I think this article did a fairly good write up on China Fishery case.

http://investmoolah.blogspot.sg/2015/08/...riced.html

At the current price it is trading, every asset is worth 11cents for every dollar on the book. .

http://stockflock.co/company/b0z

That includes the assets bought from Copeinca and the license they hold. While it is certainly possible that it goes into potential suspension, there could be some merits to the company being significantly undervalued. Might consider looking into it closer.

Very "commonsensically" if the stock moves up, is it greater than a one-in-ten chance of this happening and will it move up accordingly by, say, ten times higher upon rerating of the stock price? Are bankruptcy risks significant? i.e. You will really lose, at good approximation, everything/every dollar or unit of currency that you have invested in the stock.

Can look but don't be desperate. (Look everywhere else first would be my own opinion.)

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/CFGL-Sen...leID=78052

Salted fish lai liao...

[HONG KONG] Bonds issued by China Fishery Group Ltd plunged 34 per cent on Thursday after HSBC Holdings Plc said it asked the Hong Kong High Court to wind up the company and appoint a liquidator.

"HSBC filed an application to the High Court of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region to appoint provisional liquidators to two companies with operations in Hong Kong: China Fishery Group Ltd and China Fisheries International Ltd," HSBC spokesman Adam Harper said by e-mail Thursday.

Geoff Walsh, a Hong Kong-based spokesman for Singapore- listed China Fishery Group, declined to comment.

The company's 2019 bonds were bid at 33 cents on the dollar, according to prices from SC Lowy Financial (HK) Ltd.

The appointment of provisional liquidators for China Fishery Group Limited (CFG) and its suspension of trading together with its immediate parent company Pacific Andes Resources Development Limited (PARD) on SGX, as well as the suspension of trading by ultimate parent company Pacific Andes International Holdings Limited (PAIH) on SEHK, would probably lead to another massive corporate failure between SG and Hong Kong. It is highly likely that shareholders of these 3 companies would see their investment capital totally wiped out, and this could apply to their unsecured bond holders as well. Banks which have extended loans and trade financing to these group would have to lick their wounds too. Just so sad!

(30-11-2015, 02:47 PM)dydx Wrote: The appointment of provisional liquidators for China Fishery Group Limited (CFG) and its suspension of trading together with its immediate parent company Pacific Andes Resources Development Limited (PARD) on SGX, as well as the suspension of trading by ultimate parent company Pacific Andes International Holdings Limited (PAIH) on SEHK, would probably lead to another massive corporate failure between SG and Hong Kong. It is highly likely that shareholders of these 3 companies would see their investment capital totally wiped out, and this could apply to their unsecured bond holders as well. Banks which have extended loans and trade financing to these group would have to lick their wounds too. Just so sad!

The writing has been on the wall...

The never ending rights issues are the red flags...

Personally, I think that there is more than meets the eye to the entire saga...

A shrewd businessman that has been in the global seafood trade can't be plonking cash into the business without discipline...

Perhaps and perhaps there could be other side of the story as well since businesses are really tough and I simply cannot take it that a seasoned veteran in the business is that ill-disciplined...

Could the same guy be on the dark side of the entire saga as well?

Odd Lots Vested
Pac Andes...
The Salted Fish

(30-11-2015, 04:44 PM)greengiraffe Wrote:

(30-11-2015, 02:47 PM)dydx Wrote: The appointment of provisional liquidators for China Fishery Group Limited (CFG) and its suspension of trading together with its immediate parent company Pacific Andes Resources Development Limited (PARD) on SGX, as well as the suspension of trading by ultimate parent company Pacific Andes International Holdings Limited (PAIH) on SEHK, would probably lead to another massive corporate failure between SG and Hong Kong. It is highly likely that shareholders of these 3 companies would see their investment capital totally wiped out, and this could apply to their unsecured bond holders as well. Banks which have extended loans and trade financing to these group would have to lick their wounds too. Just so sad!

The writing has been on the wall...

The never ending rights issues are the red flags...

Personally, I think that there is more than meets the eye to the entire saga...

A shrewd businessman that has been in the global seafood trade can't be plonking cash into the business without discipline...

Perhaps and perhaps there could be other side of the story as well since businesses are really tough and I simply cannot take it that a seasoned veteran in the business is that ill-disciplined...

Could the same guy be on the dark side of the entire saga as well?

Odd Lots Vested
Pac Andes...
The Salted Fish

GG,

Please enlighten me, since you long aware of the red flag, why u still vested in this counter? 

long long time ago,  buy odd lots for rights issue in hope to get excess allocation...

when rts paper came, turn out that DBS/POSB is not amongst the rights atm bank so I never had chances to round up odd lots and dispose them...

anyway, I have tonnes of odd lots though the numbers have declining with delistings and share consolidations.

Interestingly, I got an invite from Greatronics ... newly installed Uncle Soh Chee Wen inviting us to have a sharing session on how to revive the empty shell company...

Its an interesting hobby and a journey worth embarking...

GG