(26-10-2015, 11:53 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: Seems like the red carpet is being rolled out for President Xi's upcoming visit to the lion city...
97.5/98
Vested
Core
GG
I thought it is due to the reduction of interest rate, but since CMPH already has "low" interest rate, not sure if the benefits is significant
whatever it is, doesn't really matter.
CMP is below NAV as the controlling holder mopped up the rights not taken up @ $1 for the acquisition of 3 toll roads.
CMP has grown and liquidity has improved.
It will be a matter of time when CMP will be ready for dual listing on HKSE.
Given the strong commitment by CM HJ, dividend is likely to be maintained and it has a proven track record of more than 10 yrs.
With the focus on "One Belt, One Road", there is no other direct alternative on SGX. Even angmo MIIF oso exited liao so we have to place our trust in our Comrades.
(26-10-2015, 11:53 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: Seems like the red carpet is being rolled out for President Xi's upcoming visit to the lion city...
97.5/98
Vested
Core
GG
I thought it is due to the reduction of interest rate, but since CMPH already has "low" interest rate, not sure if the benefits is significant
whatever it is, doesn't really matter.
CMP is below NAV as the controlling holder mopped up the rights not taken up @ $1 for the acquisition of 3 toll roads.
CMP has grown and liquidity has improved.
It will be a matter of time when CMP will be ready for dual listing on HKSE.
Given the strong commitment by CM HJ, dividend is likely to be maintained and it has a proven track record of more than 10 yrs.
With the focus on "One Belt, One Road", there is no other direct alternative on SGX. Even angmo MIIF oso exited liao so we have to place our trust in our Comrades.
An Lah CMP's Journey to The West has its own rationale in line with "One Belt, One Road" Vision... basic road infrastructure will be one of the 1st to benefit from initial stages of developments...
I maintained that CMP is the best play on China's focus to lift off development to the Western inland area of China in its next stage of economic development under the "One Belt, One Road" flag... Its proven dividend record and execution ability is 2nd to none at least in terms of SGX listed infrastructure companies.
CMP 3Q results after mkt close 2night... unlikely to surprise -vely in view of uncle Xi's Lion City trip plus another cross straits meeting after 1st meeting in 93
To me
>Absence in growth of existing assets except Yongtaiwen. What worries me is how competition is spreading other assets also and the last time only Beliu is reported to have competition(?).
>Surprising to me how Yangping is able to squeeze out a net profit of 467K. Note that it was in a net loss during FY2014.
Core profit from toll operation are still stable thou lag of growth. Positive side, If they are able to turn yp around (avg 10m loss/Q) imagine what the profit of gy would be like..
Real show coming up in Q4.
(05-11-2015, 11:12 PM)Jack31 Wrote: Core profit from toll operation are still stable thou lag of growth. Positive side, If they are able to turn yp around (avg 10m loss/Q) imagine what the profit of gy would be like..
Real show coming up in Q4.
Very interesting set of results...
Jiurui remains an expensive purchase of 2014 and traffic numbers remain down from 2014... atypical of Chinese, they oso maintain a low profile on Jiurui but on earnings basis Jiurui did show positive growth over 14.
As for Yanping, thank you buddies for highlighting as I didn't quite notice the new road's contribution.
Overall, I m hoping for the best going forward as the 3 new additions will convincingly add to the confusion of the consolidated group figures and increasingly The Journey to The West under the "One Belt, One Road" initiatives will be reflected in CMP.
Will be eagerly awaiting Paul Yong's review on CMP... luckily Paul's family name is not Chan...
China Merchant Holdings’ 3Q15 core earnings largely in
line. Revenue rose 4% y-o-y in 3Q to HK$549m on higher
revenue from Yongtaiwen E’way and contribution from
Jiurui E’way. Gross profit rose a quicker 8% y-o-y to
HK$335m. However, due to significantly lower other income
(-85% y-o-y to HK$7m) from 1) absence of negative
goodwill of HK$22.8m in 3Q14, 2) lower deferred income
and effective interest on other receivables recognised and 3)
forex losses in 3Q15 vs gains in 3Q14, pretax profit fell by
7% y-o-y to HK$357m. Looking ahead, the consolidation of
the three newly acquired roads should help drive better top
and bottom line growth. More updates to follow.
China Merchant Holdings’ 3Q15 core earnings largely in
line. Revenue rose 4% y-o-y in 3Q to HK$549m on higher
revenue from Yongtaiwen E’way and contribution from
Jiurui E’way. Gross profit rose a quicker 8% y-o-y to
HK$335m. However, due to significantly lower other income
(-85% y-o-y to HK$7m) from 1) absence of negative
goodwill of HK$22.8m in 3Q14, 2) lower deferred income
and effective interest on other receivables recognised and 3)
forex losses in 3Q15 vs gains in 3Q14, pretax profit fell by
7% y-o-y to HK$357m. Looking ahead, the consolidation of
the three newly acquired roads should help drive better top
and bottom line growth. More updates to follow.
Latest from Paul:
China Merchants Hldgs (Pacific): BUY; S$0.98;
Price Target: S$1.45 (Upside 47%); CMH SP
3Q core earnings in line
3Q earnings of HK$168m largely in line, but fell 20% y-o-y due to the absence of some non-operating gains
Long-term growth outlook intact, driven by recent toll road acquisitions
We continue to like the company for its strong cash flow generation, acquisition-driven growth and attractive dividend yield
Maintain BUY, TP S$1.45
Highlights CMHP reported core 3Q earnings that were in line with our expectations. Revenue rose 4% y-o-y in 3Q to HK$549m on higher revenue from Yongtaiwen E’way and contribution from Jiurui E’way. Gross profit rose a quicker 8% y-o-y to HK$335m. However, due to significantly lower other income (-85% y-o-y to HK$7m) from 1) absence of negative goodwill of HK$22.8m in 3Q14, 2) lower deferred income and effective interest on other receivables recognised, and 3) forex losses in 3Q15 vs gains in 3Q14 as well as lower contributions from the Guiliu and Guihuang JVs, PBT fell by 7% y-o-y to HK$357m. With higher non-controlling interest due to growth in profits from Yongtaiwen E’way, PATMI fell by 20% y-o-y to HK$168m. At the individual toll road level, Yongtaiwen E’way posted a better-than-expected profit growth of nearly 8% y-o-y to HK$103m, while Beilun Port’s contribution fell slightly by 3% y-o-y to HK$30.6m. Jiurui E’way earnings rose 57% y-o-y to HK$4.5 and there was lower contribution from both Guiliu (-4% y-o-y to HK$38.4m) and Guihuang (-19% y-o-y to HK$30.5m). Both JVs saw their revenues decline due to a change in road network, and adverse weather conditions, along with other road-specific factors. Outlook Acquisitions to drive bottom-line expansion. The recently completed Jiurui Expressway acquisition and acquisitions of three toll roads in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region should propel the Group’s top and bottom lines in the medium to long term. We project CMHP’s core earnings to grow by nearly 50% from HK$675m in 2014 to HK$1,004m by 2017F, driven by contribution from these recent acquisitions. Valuation: Our 12-month target price of S$1.45 is based on DCF 12 valuation with WACC of 9.8%, and offers >45% upside. We see the stock re-rating as it delivers earnings growth. Key Risks: Exposed to China’s growth. CMHP's core earnings are derived entirely from its toll road operations in China, which leaves it vulnerable to China's country risks. As the group's functional currency is the Rmb, EPS in S$ terms is subject to SGD-Rmb volatility. Regulatory changes could affect earnings. Any downward revision in tariff rates would hurt the group's bottom line and cash flows.
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