Hock Lian Seng

(05-11-2015, 10:44 AM)ksir Wrote:

(05-11-2015, 10:29 AM)valuebuddies Wrote: http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/HLS_resu...eID=376615

Quote:As at 30 September 2015, the Group’s order book for on-going projects of civil engineering segment was approximately $408 million for the Maxwell station, Changi Airport project, Stabling at Gali Batu Depot and balance of work for Jalan Gali Batu Depot. The construction of the Group’s new industrial development property at Tuas would be undertaken by own construction arm which is expected to commence in 2nd half 2015. This 5.5-storey multi-user ramp-up industrial buildings is to be completed by 1H 2018.

The construction of The Skywoods, a 50% joint venture residential project, is targeted to complete by 2016. The sales of units is on-going. About 75% of the units were sold by end September 2015.

Q3 has slowdown without the Ark's contribution, overall 9-months EPS already 4.9c, with NAV stood at 41.2c. Skywood sales are quite healthy at 75% sold despite a tough time.

[ still vested ]

Skywood sales at 75% as per end of Sept 2015. Likely to be more now.
Viewing the order book, the Revenue are quite visible. The concern is margin (likely to be quite depressed).

The wildcard will be the success of Tuas Industrial Development.

<vested but not major holding>

BTW, I am not at all concerned about the margins... because HLS management has a very good track record in protecting their margins. If you scroll all the way to the earlier posts in this threads, I mentioned long ago, this is one aspect that they're very strong at. And this is the one thing that forms the core of my investing thesis.  Even in the few years prior, where there were (and still are!) many foreign builders who came in Sg to bid for public projects at very tight margins, HLS didnt engage in price war and still maintained margins.

Here's the GPM from 2010:
2014: 37.29%
2013: 42.48%
2012: 33.32%
2011: 24.88%
2010: 13.14%

NPM from 2010:
2014: 27.76%
2013: 27.57%
2012: 24.20%
2011: 18.98%
2010: 11.80%

The NPM has actually more than DOUBLED since 5-6 yrs ago. And even the "lowest" NPM of 11.80% easily trashes all the builders I know.
Most other peers have NPM of 4-8%. I do expect the margins to dip this year though, due to all the extra taxes on foreign labour. But as you can see from the data, the room for this is huge

(05-11-2015, 10:56 AM)GFG Wrote: Results are actually a bit better than I expected.
They only show cumulative 9 months consolidated results but it's better to deduct the Q1 and Q2 revenue/profts to analyse Q3 results year on year (cos due to the 1 off recognition from the ark @ gambas and KB in the earlier part of 2015)
PBT for Q3 2015: 4.92mil
PBT fo Q3 2014: 3.788 mil


Main difference is due to shares of results of joint venture (mostly The Skywoods project), which booked 1.76mil profit in 3Q2015. 
Havent gone into detail the cash flows but it looks stable enough. Again generating stable and healthy operating cashflows. NAV increased to 41.2
Order books are very healthy and extend to 2018.

I really dont usually like to predict/expect this... but I am secretly hoping for a bumper dividend this year too. Dont think it'll be like last year's crazy 4 cents, but am expecting it to be higher than the 1.8 cents in 2012 and 2013, and so far the BS and profit looks like it can support my guess.


<vested - 750 lots>

Upsized noted 

(05-11-2015, 11:09 AM)valuebuddies Wrote:

(05-11-2015, 10:56 AM)GFG Wrote: Results are actually a bit better than I expected.
They only show cumulative 9 months consolidated results but it's better to deduct the Q1 and Q2 revenue/profts to analyse Q3 results year on year (cos due to the 1 off recognition from the ark @ gambas and KB in the earlier part of 2015)
PBT for Q3 2015: 4.92mil
PBT fo Q3 2014: 3.788 mil


Main difference is due to shares of results of joint venture (mostly The Skywoods project), which booked 1.76mil profit in 3Q2015. 
Havent gone into detail the cash flows but it looks stable enough. Again generating stable and healthy operating cashflows. NAV increased to 41.2
Order books are very healthy and extend to 2018.

I really dont usually like to predict/expect this... but I am secretly hoping for a bumper dividend this year too. Dont think it'll be like last year's crazy 4 cents, but am expecting it to be higher than the 1.8 cents in 2012 and 2013, and so far the BS and profit looks like it can support my guess.


<vested - 750 lots>

Upsized noted 

Upsize? U mean my stake?

Not really, my post in Jan this yr stated 890 lots, I actually increased to 1 mil shares at the earlier part of the yr and sold 250 lots few mths ago at ard $0.46. (Maybe that will turn out to be a mistake...)
Now at 750lots.

(05-11-2015, 11:09 AM)valuebuddies Wrote:

(05-11-2015, 10:56 AM)GFG Wrote: Results are actually a bit better than I expected.
They only show cumulative 9 months consolidated results but it's better to deduct the Q1 and Q2 revenue/profts to analyse Q3 results year on year (cos due to the 1 off recognition from the ark @ gambas and KB in the earlier part of 2015)
PBT for Q3 2015: 4.92mil
PBT fo Q3 2014: 3.788 mil


Main difference is due to shares of results of joint venture (mostly The Skywoods project), which booked 1.76mil profit in 3Q2015. 
Havent gone into detail the cash flows but it looks stable enough. Again generating stable and healthy operating cashflows. NAV increased to 41.2
Order books are very healthy and extend to 2018.

I really dont usually like to predict/expect this... but I am secretly hoping for a bumper dividend this year too. Dont think it'll be like last year's crazy 4 cents, but am expecting it to be higher than the 1.8 cents in 2012 and 2013, and so far the BS and profit looks like it can support my guess.


<vested - 750 lots>

Upsized noted 

FY15Q4 results released today:
EPS of 7.2 cents, dividend of 2.5 cents
As I mentioned earlier, it's not like FY14's extraordinarily high div, or EPS because of extraordinary gains from divestment in FY14, but still a bumper dividend from other normal years.
Havent analysed in detail yet, but FCF looks very healthy.
Overall pretty good results.
Added 100 lots to my stake 2 days ago at $0.395.
With 2.5 cents, its a rather respectable 6.3% yield

<vested - 850 lots>

As expected, with the bumper dividend and the FY15 div ex date coming up, the share price is gradually ticking upwards.
I'm expecting it to continue rising next week as next Fri would be the last day the shares come with dividend

Just market sentiment, almost everything else is moving up

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(19-04-2016, 01:36 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: Just market sentiment, almost everything else is moving up

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spot on!

devaluation of SG$ by MAS works!

"Hock Lian Seng bid S$3.708 million for the 4,890 sq m site at Tampines Industrial drive, which drew four bids. The tenure is for 20 years, and the site is zoned "Business 2" with a gross plot ratio of 1."

About time they added to their order books, was getting depleted
No news on the plans for this site yet
HLS has been focussing on industrial developments, think they have realised the residential sector is overcrowded and there's an oversupply for the next few yrs
<vested>


https://thumbtackinvestor.wordpress.com/

1ST Q result is out today.vested too.

FY16Q1 results out:
EPS 0.49 cents compared to prior yr 3.65 cents.
At 1st glance it looks very bad, but in reality, it is because of the 1 off recognition of profits from the industrial sales in FY15Q1.

Revenue $23,590 vs previous yr of 103,866
After subtracting last yr's 1 off gain of $89,027, the "real" revenue last yr is 14,839
So it's actually an increase


https://thumbtackinvestor.wordpress.com/