Saizen REIT

Well the NAV is about 104 Yen per share. If it a general offer, i don't think it can be lower than this amount. And their reports keep on saying that that official valuations lag actual valuations in a market that's on the way up.

I believe their last few sales sold at 10-20% above premium.

So generally speaking, for a general offer, I don't see how anything lower than 110 Yen per share can be attractive enough for shareholders to vote for it. Long term and substantial shareholders may want an even bigger premium.

On the other hand, if it is simply an offer to buy a block of assets, the price could be anything.

J-REITs are currently trading at yields of around 2-4%. Debt financing cost tend to be < 1%. Yet, our two Japanese-centric REITs trade at a discount to book value with yields significantly higher than the typical J-REIT. I won't be surprised by value-unlocking attempts.

(Vested in Croesus)

(23-10-2015, 10:02 PM)tanjm Wrote: Well the NAV is about 104 Yen per share. If it a general offer, i don't think it can be lower than this amount. And their reports keep on saying that that official valuations lag actual valuations in a market that's on the way up.

I believe their last few sales sold at 10-20% above premium.

So generally speaking, for a general offer, I don't see how anything lower than 110 Yen per share can be attractive enough for shareholders to vote for it. Long term and substantial shareholders may want an even bigger premium.

On the other hand, if it is simply an offer to buy a block of assets, the price could be anything.

I have been vested for a while and am happy to hold it long term. The replacement cost of the type of apartment buildings that Saizen holds is higher than the acquisition cost. If indeed it is true that the price of assets will continue to climb, why sell now? Unless they have a better capital allocation choice. Reminds me of decision tree analysis with at least 3 choices and 3 housing demand scenarios.

It is preferable to see Saizen maximising the occupancy of its assets and expanding its portfolio bigger through its own acquisitions.

(24-10-2015, 06:19 AM)Caelitus Wrote:

(23-10-2015, 10:02 PM)tanjm Wrote: Well the NAV is about 104 Yen per share. If it a general offer, i don't think it can be lower than this amount. And their reports keep on saying that that official valuations lag actual valuations in a market that's on the way up.

I believe their last few sales sold at 10-20% above premium.

So generally speaking, for a general offer, I don't see how anything lower than 110 Yen per share can be attractive enough for shareholders to vote for it. Long term and substantial shareholders may want an even bigger premium.

On the other hand, if it is simply an offer to buy a block of assets, the price could be anything.

Even if not successful, it could lead to a re rating of the per share value by the general shareholding public.

I have been vested for a while and am happy to hold it long term. The replacement cost of the type of apartment buildings that Saizen holds is higher than the acquisition cost. If indeed it is true that the price of assets will continue to climb, why sell now? Unless they have a better capital allocation choice. Reminds me of decision tree analysis with at least 3 choices and 3 housing demand scenarios.

It is preferable to see Saizen maximising the occupancy of its assets and expanding its portfolio bigger through its own acquisitions.

 I belong to the group of "long term" shareholders myself and I probably would not vote for a sale at anything under 135 yen myself. 

But many regular shareholders would be glad to see it go at anything over the NAV. So it may depend on the significant shareholders.

Anyway, who knows, maybe it's not a general offer, nor a seriously high enough offer. It's all speculation.

Saizen is a good reit not in the radar and favour of investors

Been a long time... Hope it pays off

Offer price equivalent to about S$1.17, which I calculate to be about Yen 101.

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/20151031...eID=376016

Well done those currently vested

(was vested at one time, but unfortunately not now)

(31-10-2015, 06:20 AM)Dosser Wrote: Offer price equivalent to about S$1.17, which I calculate to be about Yen 101.

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/20151031...eID=376016

Well done those currently vested

(was vested at one time, but unfortunately not now)

Congrats... so Saizen is history?

(31-10-2015, 09:08 AM)greengiraffe Wrote:

(31-10-2015, 06:20 AM)Dosser Wrote: Offer price equivalent to about S$1.17, which I calculate to be about Yen 101.

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/20151031...eID=376016

Well done those currently vested

(was vested at one time, but unfortunately not now)

Congrats... so Saizen is history?

Still to be decided - subject to unit holder approval. Based on the thread here, that approval is not a sure thing. However, those who have bought in the last 5 years are being given the opportunity to accept the offer with a profit of typically 20% to 65% of their purchase price, on top of the decent dividend return they have received. Even if approval is not given, it should jolt the market price upwards from where it was before the announcement. So, congratulations to those who spotted the opportunity and acted on it.

I sold too early. Congratulation to those still holding on !