Samudera Shipping

The fall in revenue is a concern. Let's hope revenue can stabilised at around US80m (1Q 80m. 2Q 81m)

The fall in gross profit margin in 2Q2015 vs 1Q2015 could be due to fall in bunker price.

My guess is that bunker price could be around 10 to 15% of gross revenue. If oil price had increased by 20% in 2Q vs 1Q on average, that would have decreased gross profit margin by 2 to 3%. With oil dropping lower than 1Q, let's see if gross profit margin would move up to 1Q level.

Appreciating US dollar would be a plus with cost in Sing Dollar and Indonesian Rupiah.

The company substantial shareholder is Samudera Indonesia which is listed in Indonesia exchange. It is trading less than 0.5 NTA with price falling significantly during these period. Samudera Indonesia is trying to bring value to their shareholders but they must understand that with Samudera Shipping bringing in the bulk of the profit. If Samudera Shipping does not do well it will also not. Since Samudera Indonesia consolidate Samudera results in its report, there is a wide gap in NTA vs market value of Samudera Shipping (With Samudera trading at 0.3NTA). Hence a wide discount to NTA for Samudera Indonesia is needed

Samudera Indonesia needs to realise that the share price of the company will not go up if the market value of Samudera Shipping is very much lower than NTA. They would either have to push the price up or delist the company.

do watch out for the concept of perfect competition in the container shipping industry, it is ultimately a demand supply equation, if supply overwhelmed demand, any bunker savings will still be pass on eventually to customers, at least this is the case for the major trade lanes, but i think samudera can't be too far away

For your number crunching ^^
http://www.commercialguru.com.sg/listing...ffles-quay

(28-04-2015, 10:58 PM)ngcheeki Wrote:

(28-04-2015, 10:38 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: Thanks.

If I am not wrong, they sold off one of the floor. Left with 2 floors


See 08 August 2006 announcement
http://samudera.listedcompany.com/newsro.../year/2006

Yes, thanks for pointing out

Samudera Indonesia Clinches $70m Contract From Local Miner
http://jakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/busin...cal-miner/

(28-04-2015, 10:29 PM)ngcheeki Wrote: Samudera AGM Notes
==================

The following are some of the notes taken during AGM. Believed at your own risk

1. Samudera Shipping is the market leader for container shipping between Singapore hub to/fro Indonesia. Furthermore, Samudera shipping is top 3 feeder services operator to other regions.

2. CEO hinted that the company will invest in a LNG Vessel with contract secured. Hence, coming year CAPEX will probably be higher than last year FY 2014 of around USD 9 m.

3. Samudera is comfortable to maintain a debt level of 2x of Total Debt/Total Equity. This level is dictated by covenant imposed by certain loan from banks. However, the current debt level for samudera is 0.54. Samudera is considering to add more debt when investment opportunity arises.

4. Bunker Price - Samudera will benefit from lower banker price unlike international shipping line e.g. NOL where there is a bunker price surcharge. For regional shipping line, everything is bundle in the freight charges. Hence, when there is a drop in bunker price, samudera will benefit. Samudera did hedge against bunker price by buying Bunker oil future. When crude oil price is less than US$60 per barrel, it is worth actively hedged forward. Typically, Samudera will do forward hedging of 30% of the bunker oil price. The average hedged bunker price of samudera is slightly higher than the current price as hedges are spread out for the last few quarters.

5. All the vessels in the PPE are mark to market base on future cash flows of the vessel and discount using a discount rate. The current FY2014 year discount rate used in 6.69%, whereas for FY2012 and FY2013 the discount rate used is 5.7%.

6. Pg 31, There is an income tax of USD $1,993 even though samudera Shipping are making losses because companies operated in Indonesia has different tax policy. In Indonesia, the corporate tax is taxed based on top line (i.e. revenue) of 1.2% instead of bottom line like in Singapore.

7. Launch new container service routes in the region

For the coming year, Samudera intends to launch new regional route to ports in Philippine and Thailand.

8. Leverage on our parent company for future business opportunities in Indonesia

This above point is probably referred to the purchase of LNG Tanker together with Samudera Indonesia stated in the following URL

http://www.rambuenergy.com/2015/04/samud...ng-vessel/

9. The following is the presentation slide provided during the AGM

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Samudera...eID=346686

10. Closest Competitor of Samudera is RCL Group as well as feeder services provide PIL

https://www.rclgroup.com/default.aspx

11. The freehold commercial properties indicated in the PPE are 3 levels, 23rd to 25th floors in John Hancock tower purchased during March 2006 at around S$1,330 psf. The property is valued at cost. See the following for more information.

https://lushhomemedia.wordpress.com/2007...ice-space/

SINGAPORE (Oct 28): Samudera Shipping Line’s earnings plunged 76.5% to US$1.2 million ($1.7 million) in the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2015, from $5.2 million a year ago.

Revenue fell 14.8% to US$75.2 million from US$88.2 million previously, owing to lower freight rates and a 6.3% fall in container volume.

The firm notes a slowdown in demand for container shipping services across the region.

Meanwhile, revenue from the bulk & tanker business decreased 18.0% to US$11 million, compared with US$13.4 million in 3QFY2014, as charter-out rates for dry bulk carriers remained under pressure.

Samudera expects operational challenges to persist in the container and bulk & tanker sectors.

Shares of Samudera ended flat at 24 cents.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...5-us12-mil

I note that it recorded a USD2.6 million impairment on two container vessels and a chemical tanker that it intends to dispose. Excluding that, the results would have been better than 2Q15. Also, it continues to generate positive free cash flow of $4.6m.

The results are within or slightly better than my expectation but outlook continues to be bleak.

Guidance by Management
"Weaker economic data from major markets around the world raises uncertainties for trade demand for the shipping industry. Meanwhile, the capacity in the market is expected to increase further as newbuilding deliveries continue to outpace vessel scraping activities.

In this regard, competition for container cargo is expected to remain intense, and consequently exert pressure on freight rates. However lower bunker prices and charter-hire rates help to partially mitigate the impact of lower freight rates.

Depressed charter rates for bulk carriers will continue to be a drag on the Group’s bulk & tanker business, even though charter rates for tankers are continuing to be relatively stable."

(Vested and still suffering loss)

Been an odd lot holder for a wrong wrong time... frankly, mgt does not really have much control over its destiny... could be largely an industry problem...

GG

If one looks at NOL 3Q2015 financial statements, there is about a 30% fall in rates for intra-asia sector. What the company can do is to downsize and raise efficiency of remaining ships. To reduce depreciation with the downsizing. The revalued office property and cash on hand is worth around the present market cap. That meant their ships are heavily discounted.

(29-10-2015, 01:39 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Been an odd lot holder for a wrong wrong time... frankly, mgt does not really have much control over its destiny... could be largely an industry problem...

GG

(30-10-2015, 06:08 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: If one looks at NOL 3Q2015 financial statements, there is about a 30% fall in rates for intra-asia sector. What the company can do is to downsize and raise efficiency of remaining ships. To reduce depreciation with the downsizing. The revalued office property and cash on hand is worth around the present market cap. That meant their ships are heavily discounted.

(29-10-2015, 01:39 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Been an odd lot holder for a wrong wrong time... frankly, mgt does not really have much control over its destiny... could be largely an industry problem...

GG

I have always content that shipping mkt are 3 sharp bulls and 7 grinding bears.

Any attempts to make sense of shippers especially the ones listed locally is futile.

NOL has been losing since Temasek staged a takeover around the GFC period. Fundamentally it has been so bad that they have part with the stable logistics arm to stay solvent.

There is no need to resort to such an attempt if core operations are not so jelek.

Good luck to shipping investors.

GG

For NOL, part of its problems is due to management. Other shippers are still profit making while it is not. It bought new ships to save on bunker and then bunker price crashed. And the company has to increase depreciation due to new ships. Temasek has to understand warships and submarines are different from commercial ships. An admiral might not be suitable to handle commercial fleets.

As for Samudera, if the management are smart they should follow PCL (Pacific Carriers). Delist when shipping is down and list again when the sector is hot again. Anyway the NTA is about 70 cents if one revalued its office properties.