(09-09-2015, 08:55 PM)Bibi Wrote: With the parent company subscribing for I believe almost the entire preference shares issues, their percentage holding in the co will be much higher. What is the possibility that parent co will succeed in delisting the company during bear market prices as in during a recession?
CMP remains an unfinished project since its mandate in toll roads taken on in 2004.
My best guess is that HJ will "warehouse" the "excess" CMP shares that it purchased in the PO to be introduced as dual listings on HKSE at a better time.
CMP will remain a viable vehicle to help "liquidify" debt strapped in selected viable toll roads and hence CMP will stay listed at least over the next 5 years IMHO.
Vested
Accumulated Yday and Today
Core Holdings
GG
(09-09-2015, 08:55 PM)Bibi Wrote: With the parent company subscribing for I believe almost the entire preference shares issues, their percentage holding in the co will be much higher. What is the possibility that parent co will succeed in delisting the company during bear market prices as in during a recession?
CMP remains an unfinished project since its mandate in toll roads taken on in 2004.
My best guess is that HJ will "warehouse" the "excess" CMP shares that it purchased in the PO to be introduced as dual listings on HKSE at a better time.
CMP will remain a viable vehicle to help "liquidify" debt strapped in selected viable toll roads and hence CMP will stay listed at least over the next 5 years IMHO.
Vested
Accumulated Yday and Today
Core Holdings
GG
Pardon my naive thinking as this is something which has kept me from investing in this counter yet. How about they used the "excess" shares as stronger votes to delist from SGX then re-list at HKSE when times becomes better? How is maintaining dual listings better for them?
(09-09-2015, 08:55 PM)Bibi Wrote: With the parent company subscribing for I believe almost the entire preference shares issues, their percentage holding in the co will be much higher. What is the possibility that parent co will succeed in delisting the company during bear market prices as in during a recession?
CMP remains an unfinished project since its mandate in toll roads taken on in 2004.
My best guess is that HJ will "warehouse" the "excess" CMP shares that it purchased in the PO to be introduced as dual listings on HKSE at a better time.
CMP will remain a viable vehicle to help "liquidify" debt strapped in selected viable toll roads and hence CMP will stay listed at least over the next 5 years IMHO.
Vested
Accumulated Yday and Today
Core Holdings
GG
Pardon my naive thinking as this is something which has kept me from investing in this counter yet. How about they used the "excess" shares as stronger votes to delist from SGX then re-list at HKSE when times becomes better? How is maintaining dual listings better for them?
Then we can always stay vested with them and migrate our shares to be listed on HKSE to enjoy the premium... just some administrative procedures but will enjoy potentially higher premium.
The board of directors (the “Board”) of China Merchants Holdings (Pacific) Limited (the “Company”) wishes to announce that HK$20,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of HK$1,163,000,000 1.25 per cent. convertible bonds due 2017 (credit enhanced until 2015) (the “Convertible Bonds”) have been converted and cancelled pursuant to the exercise of conversion rights by the holder thereof (the “Conversion”). Accordingly, following such conversion and cancellation, the aggregate principal amount of the Convertible Bonds remaining outstanding as of 24 August 2015 is HK$339,000,000.
Arising from such conversion, 4,068,317 new ordinary shares in the capital of the Company (“Shares”) have been issued at the conversion price of S$0.776 and the total number of issued and paid-up Shares of the Company has increased to 1,196,349,400.
BY ORDER OF THE BOARD
Lim Lay Hoon
Company Secretary Singapore, 24 August 2015
Based on outstanding HK$339m worth of CBs, the potential shares to be converted at $0.776 is 68.957m.
This is the last updated paid up capital of CMP before PO
So the PO will be 598,174,700 shares that will raise S$598,174,700 before expenses
Total share capital of CMP will be lifted to 1,794,524,100 shares.
CM HJ owns 764,814,750 shares before PO and is likely to end up with 1,362,989,450 shares post PO or 75.95% of enlarged share cap before further conversion of CBs
I wonder if hj will keep the dividend with cmp again, like the good old days. Lol.. I doubt so but if it happen will be an additional bonus.
Going forward from 2016, cmp probably need abt 700m hkd to pay 7c. Their payout ratio was as high as 89% core earning if I rem correctly.. Alot will depend how much they manage to improve the 3 new toll. I have no doubt it will improve, just by how much.
(14-09-2015, 09:02 PM)Jack31 Wrote: I wonder if hj will keep the dividend with cmp again, like the good old days. Lol.. I doubt so but if it happen will be an additional bonus.
Going forward from 2016, cmp probably need abt 700m hkd to pay 7c. Their payout ratio was as high as 89% core earning if I rem correctly.. Alot will depend how much they manage to improve the 3 new toll. I have no doubt it will improve, just by how much.
Well I put in this request to Mr Jiang to park the div at CMP. He said he can ask but its up to HJ. cannot promise. Lets see.
As for the 7 cents div, they said cannot promise but can guarantee pay-out above 50% of profit. to get 7 cents pay-out will be at least 70%. still possible but will be a stretch. IMHO I think this yr 7 cents is relatively safe but next yr will be tough. I expect it to be cut to 6.5 cents and worse case scenario will be 6 cents. div yield wise still ok but share price may be under pressure. this is bcos the 3 toll rds acquired will take a few yrs to contribute positively. already they are projecting about 10 cents drop in eps post acquisition. this is optimistic projection.
lol, jacmar, can't believe u really ask that!!! Great request thou. Haha. Thanks for the info, mr jiang actually say he will ask, that's really very nice.
Same thoughts here. 7c shd be safe this year. Its how much the 3 toll road perform plus probably jiurui growth in 2016. 7c is still possible thou, I feel. But Not like it matter a lot to me personally. I've collected like 20c dividend from this baby already!
It wouldn't make sense to do a bonus issue if there was no intention to maintain the dividend in the long run. For this acquisitions to be successful, it needs to generate at least HK$200 million net profit (2.5% ROA).
I don't think 70% payout is crazy. Historically, their payout ratio has been around this range.
Assuming 75% payout ratio and 7 cents distribution and 1.8 billion shares, the Company needs to generate EPS of 9.3 cents and NPAT of HK$985 million.
The Company risk profile will change after this M&A deals reaches completion. There are substantial debt exceeding HK$10 billion, loss-making toll roads, potential slowdown in the Chinese economy. A far cry from the HK$1 billion net cash company when I first invested.
(Vested)
Disclaimer: Please feel free to correct any error in my post. I am not liable for anything. Do your own research and analysis. I do NOT give buy or sell calls and stock tips. Buy and sell at your risk. I am not a qualified financial adviser so I do not give any advice. The postings reflects my own personal thoughts which may or may not be accurate.
(14-09-2015, 10:09 PM)Nick Wrote: It wouldn't make sense to do a bonus issue if there was no intention to maintain the dividend in the long run. For this acquisitions to be successful, it needs to generate at least HK$200 million net profit (2.5% ROA).
I don't think 70% payout is crazy. Historically, their payout ratio has been around this range.
Assuming 75% payout ratio and 7 cents distribution and 1.8 billion shares, the Company needs to generate EPS of 9.3 cents and NPAT of HK$985 million.
The Company risk profile will change after this M&A deals reaches completion. There are substantial debt exceeding HK$10 billion, loss-making toll roads, potential slowdown in the Chinese economy. A far cry from the HK$1 billion net cash company when I first invested.
DBS Vickers last known research on CMP will be an interesting reference...
Are Paul's numbers realistic? Has CMP's model been broken simply because of changed mkt sentiments?
Toll roads as a basic infrastructure globally should continue to be a defensive business otherwise many long term funds will not be so hungry to lock them up for wrong term investments - in China's case - the access of which especially the quality ones can only be via SOEs. We have seen how Macquarie backed MIIF failed with their own pet project in the middle kingdom.
I clearly heard from mgt that they have yet to feel the negative impact of China's widely reported slowdown on its portfolio of toll roads.
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