China Economic News

(22-08-2015, 08:16 AM)greengiraffe Wrote:

(22-08-2015, 08:11 AM)BlueKelah Wrote: Japan 2.0 coming, just a matter of time now...

sent from my Galaxy Tab S

told u whole world is bankrupt... financial institutions are bankrupt... nowhere is safe...

Now financial mkts are forcing world leaders to come up with new strategy...

Basically no one is safe...

haha changing your tune now that things are going down? what happened to "in CCP we trust"?

Despite being bearish, those holding solid stocks paying out high/good dividends and can hold through the correction/crash will be pretty safe. not all will stop their dividend payout and one should still get a respectable yield. After all there are some industry like healthcare/food/services and even rubbish collecting industry will be more resilient and will still run like usual. Those company without any debts will just need to ramp down production and wait out the storm.

hope you are capitalising on this down market opportunity too. After all that is the whole point of discussing economic events and news.

;D

(22-08-2015, 10:40 AM)BlueKelah Wrote:

(22-08-2015, 08:16 AM)greengiraffe Wrote:

(22-08-2015, 08:11 AM)BlueKelah Wrote: Japan 2.0 coming, just a matter of time now...

sent from my Galaxy Tab S

told u whole world is bankrupt... financial institutions are bankrupt... nowhere is safe...

Now financial mkts are forcing world leaders to come up with new strategy...

Basically no one is safe...

haha changing your tune now that things are going down? what happened to "in CCP we trust"?

Despite being bearish, those holding  solid stocks paying out high/good dividends and can hold through the correction/crash will be pretty safe. not all will stop their dividend payout and one should still get a respectable yield. After all there are some industry like healthcare/food/services and even rubbish collecting industry will be more resilient and will still run like usual. Those company without any debts will just need to ramp down production and wait out the storm.

hope you are capitalising on this down market opportunity too. After all that is the whole point of discussing economic events and news.

;D

I m a self convinced Buffet disciple. $ to me is just a cold digit. I never lose sleep over changes in the digits as this is part of gamesmenship.

I m always convinced that CCP is the most powerful Godfather of our times.

Of course my Godfather stocks are fine. I only used up at most 1/3 of the current dividend income annually and even then that cashflow stream seems resilient after I back tested the entire portfolio for a decade.

To me, its just about how much more bullets that I have to play my game. Investments to me is the most beautiful thing that I have learnt and turned into my hobby now. Frankly, I don't think many have such luxury since I have everything financially planned out for now after over 3 decades learning and playing the game.

The main thing that I can't and have no control over is when my time will be up...

Enjoy 
Buddy
GG

(22-08-2015, 10:40 AM)BlueKelah Wrote:

(22-08-2015, 08:16 AM)greengiraffe Wrote:

(22-08-2015, 08:11 AM)BlueKelah Wrote: Japan 2.0 coming, just a matter of time now...

sent from my Galaxy Tab S

told u whole world is bankrupt... financial institutions are bankrupt... nowhere is safe...

Now financial mkts are forcing world leaders to come up with new strategy...

Basically no one is safe...

haha changing your tune now that things are going down? what happened to "in CCP we trust"?

Despite being bearish, those holding  solid stocks paying out high/good dividends and can hold through the correction/crash will be pretty safe. not all will stop their dividend payout and one should still get a respectable yield. After all there are some industry like healthcare/food/services and even rubbish collecting industry will be more resilient and will still run like usual. Those company without any debts will just need to ramp down production and wait out the storm.

hope you are capitalising on this down market opportunity too. After all that is the whole point of discussing economic events and news.

;D

IMHO, i think there is absolutely no shame in changing tack, especially with regards to macro economics. In the long run, it is the foxes who have a higher probability to survive, compared to hedgehogs. It is really not about proving that you are right about your facts to Mr Market, because that doesnt make money. What makes money is taking advantage of Mr Market's mood swings. I think there is a difference between this two. As Keyes said 'When the facts change, i change my mind'...

GG has been a god-sent in VB, taking over the reins from KopiKat..while Mr specuvestor seems to be missing in action on VB for some time now. Nonetheless, things are looking interesting for perma bears like you! Will your time be finally here?!

Of course no shame in changing tack, it just makes a person's view and comments seem fickle. Basically there won't be as much value in discussion if someone just argues for the sake of arguing and then changes his argument when events change so he doesn't look stupid.

If you don't stick to your guns, your arguments will not hold much weight.

Specuvestor is probably still around and reading the forum. He is probable just not bothered to post anything for now.

Please refrain from labelling  perma bear thanks.

highlighting risks in stocks/markets that have high valuation and thus higher possibility for downside is very different from always expecting stocks will fall. It is called being careful. Still very bullish on Semiconductor stocks as well as other stocks from other sectors which have fallen quite a bit this past couple weeks and starting to present what in my books looks like excellent value.

In fact, in a couple of weeks time, should markets fall too much, the FED might be too afraid to raise rates. China could also lower interest rates more. Should these events happen sometime this year, markets and commodities would surely rebound somewhat, much like what happened in late 2011. In which case, should we change our minds again and say market will go up lah no need to worry about down one lah?

At the moment I am having a field day adding back my positions in my favourite stocks, which i had sold off before.

The cleaning of me elephant gun and stocking up of bullets in preparation for safari season has been fun. Now it's time to start hunting!! BANG BANG BANG!!

(22-08-2015, 08:05 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: Of course no shame in changing tack, it just makes a person's view and comments seem fickle. Basically there won't be as much value in discussion if someone just argues for the sake of arguing and then changes his argument when events change so he doesn't look stupid.

If you don't stick to your guns, your arguments will not hold much weight.

Specuvestor is probably still around and reading the forum. He is probable just not bothered to post anything for now.

Please refrain from labelling  perma bear thanks.

highlighting risks in stocks/markets that have high valuation and thus higher possibility for downside is very different from always expecting stocks will fall. It is called being careful. Still very bullish on Semiconductor stocks as well as other stocks from other sectors which have fallen quite a bit this past couple weeks and starting to present what in my books looks like excellent value.

In fact, in a couple of weeks time, should markets fall too much, the FED might be too afraid to raise rates. China could also lower interest rates more. Should these events happen sometime this year, markets and commodities would surely rebound somewhat, much like what happened in late 2011. In which case, should we change our minds again and say market will go up lah no need to worry about down one lah?

At the moment I am having a field day adding back my positions in my favourite stocks, which i had sold off before.

The cleaning of me elephant gun and stocking up of bullets in preparation for safari season has been fun. Now it's time to start hunting!! BANG BANG BANG!!

Buddy,

More than 3 decades of investment... its just part of the game.

I m still vested as I believe in my Godfathers.

Whether I changed tags or not, just many other consters will say - its up to many to guage.

Its only $. Anyway, extra million will not change my lifestyle as I m still a value hunter which is always part of my life.

Buy till it hurts. Now I m only 10% cash but at the peak I m 50% leverage - so maybe in my context, its 50% in $ - retail hedge fund style?

GG

China pension fund allowed to invest in stock market

BEIJING - China's State Council published the final guideline on investment for the country's massive pension fund on Sunday, effectively opening the gate for its investment in the stock market.

(23-08-2015, 08:50 PM)cfa Wrote: China pension fund allowed to invest in stock market

BEIJING - China's State Council published the final guideline on investment for the country's massive pension fund on Sunday, effectively opening the gate for its investment in the stock market.

Never under-estimate CCP lah... they have plenty of tricks up their sleeves lah...

From what  I am reading, since peak near 5000 points down to sub 3700 levels, SSE has lost about 3.4trillion yuan. That was the level earlier this month.

the pension fund total is 3.5 trillion yuan. Only 30% which is 1.05trillion yuan earmarked for the share market investment (obviously they cant use all, stock market is too risky)

Now the SHCOMP is at 3500 (30% down), how much can 1 trillion injection do for a market that has lost >3.4trillion? maybe push it back up 10% to 4000 points? or will this allow all the friends of the CCP get out whilst the country bails out the stock market??

Sound like desperation, trying to shore up the market. UNfortunately that doesn't help fundamentals or productivity.
The reallocation of 30% of the pension fund into stocks also means unallocation from somewhere else, which will leave a big black hole there.

IIRC Japan did something similar with their pension fund last year together with monetary easing and their market boom (16000 -> 20000+) from oct 2014 till jun this year then sideways until it start dipping now after the news their latest quarter shows contraction!

(23-08-2015, 09:48 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: From what  I am reading, since peak near 5000 points down to sub 3700 levels, SSE has lost about 3.4trillion yuan. That was the level earlier this month.

the pension fund total is 3.5 trillion yuan. Only 30% which is 1.05trillion yuan earmarked for the share market investment (obviously they cant use all, stock market is too risky)

Now the SHCOMP is at 3500 (30% down), how much can 1 trillion injection do for a market that has lost >3.4trillion? maybe push it back up 10% to 4000 points? or will this allow all the friends of the CCP get out whilst the country bails out the stock market??

Sound like desperation, trying to shore up the market. UNfortunately that doesn't help fundamentals or productivity.
The reallocation of 30% of the pension fund into stocks also means unallocation from somewhere else, which will leave a big black hole there.

IIRC Japan did something similar with their pension fund last year together with monetary easing and their market boom (16000 -> 20000+) from oct 2014 till jun this year then sideways until it start dipping now after the news their latest quarter shows contraction!

If they operate as you have predicted, then they are not CCP...

(23-08-2015, 08:58 PM)greengiraffe Wrote:

(23-08-2015, 08:50 PM)cfa Wrote: China pension fund allowed to invest in stock market

BEIJING - China's State Council published the final guideline on investment for the country's massive pension fund on Sunday, effectively opening the gate for its investment in the stock market.

Never under-estimate CCP lah... they have plenty of tricks up their sleeves lah...

China to allow state pension fund to invest in stocks

• AFP
  
• AUGUST 24, 2015 7:24AM
  

[b]China will allow its huge state pension fund to invest in domestic stocks in the wake of a massive market sell-off, it’s been announced.[/b]
The fund will be able to invest up to 30 per cent of its net assets in equities, according to final guidelines from the State Council (cabinet) quoted by the official Xinhua news agency.
The fund, to which workers must contribute, had 3.5 trillion yuan ($A746.63 billion) in net assets at the end of 2014.
The move could allow the fund to invest billions of yuan into domestic equities after a stock market rout forced the government to take emergency support measures.
Xinhua depicted the decision as an attempt to boost returns as China struggles to care for its increasing elderly population. But it acknowledged the recent decline in the nation’s stock markets.
Shanghai shares closed down 4.27 per cent on Friday, bringing losses for the week to more than 11 per cent on worries over the flagging economy and fears of weaker government support for equities.
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• MOREMarket turmoil tests rates nerve
  

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Chinese shares have been highly volatile in recent months, plunging almost a third in a matter of weeks in June and early July, after having risen over 150 per cent in the preceding year.
After the June collapse, Beijing intervened with a rescue package that included funding the state-backed China Securities Finance Corp. to buy stocks on behalf of the government.
Previously, the pension fund could only invest in treasury bonds and bank deposits.
The new rules also allow the fund to invest in convertible bonds, futures and infrastructure projects.
AFP