Penguin International

10 cents coming soon -- Opportunity or continuous falling knives ?

(21-08-2015, 01:01 PM)new-comer1 Wrote: 10 cents coming soon -- Opportunity or continuous falling knives ?

IMO, if it ever hits 10 cents,  it's a good opportunity to buy a company with twice the NAV and healthy cash levels. Not to mention, an established branding in its industry.

(21-08-2015, 01:06 PM)LocalOptimal Wrote:

(21-08-2015, 01:01 PM)new-comer1 Wrote: 10 cents coming soon -- Opportunity or continuous falling knives ?

IMO, if it ever hits 10 cents,  it's a good opportunity to buy a company with twice the NAV and healthy cash levels. Not to mention, an established branding in its industry.

yes, oil would have bottomed out when Penguin goes below 10cents.

At the moment, still prefer other O&G like Baker Tech. Also no debt and almost at cash value now.

Buddies who have considered the risks posted since a year ago when Penguin was >20cents would have done well to have sold or chose not to vest. The recent CRASH in Penguin share price is a good demonstration of herd investing behaviour, which unfortunately has happened even on VB where we are supposed to be more contrarian and value orientated.

can remember many bulls were announcing proudly they had bought in at 20c+ levels, etc. etc.


-nv-

(21-08-2015, 01:06 PM)LocalOptimal Wrote:

(21-08-2015, 01:01 PM)new-comer1 Wrote: 10 cents coming soon -- Opportunity or continuous falling knives ?

IMO, if it ever hits 10 cents,  it's a good opportunity to buy a company with twice the NAV and healthy cash levels. Not to mention, an established branding in its industry.

As I stated earlier, we should only buy into cyclical stocks when there's blood in the street. Penguin is only worth investing the stock price fell below its reported book value. We should discount its PPE and inventory by 50%. Any other price is only fit for trading.

(22-08-2015, 10:23 AM)BlueKelah Wrote:

(21-08-2015, 01:06 PM)LocalOptimal Wrote:

(21-08-2015, 01:01 PM)new-comer1 Wrote: 10 cents coming soon -- Opportunity or continuous falling knives ?

IMO, if it ever hits 10 cents,  it's a good opportunity to buy a company with twice the NAV and healthy cash levels. Not to mention, an established branding in its industry.

yes, oil would have bottomed out when Penguin goes below 10cents.

At the moment, still prefer other O&G like Baker Tech. Also no debt and almost at cash value now.

Buddies who have considered the risks posted since a year ago when Penguin was >20cents would have done well to have sold or chose not to vest. The recent CRASH in Penguin share price is a good demonstration of herd investing behaviour, which unfortunately has happened even on VB where we are supposed to be more contrarian and value orientated.

can remember many bulls were announcing proudly they had bought in at 20c+ levels, etc. etc.


-nv-

Yeah, my thoughts too. Penguin used to be my largest holding (around 50%) but I was lucky to take profits at 0.250 in Nov 2014. Given the current market outlook, it is a good opportunity to accumulate back Penguin with a significant MOS. I would be interested if the market offers me around 7 to 8 cents.

(22-08-2015, 10:23 AM)BlueKelah Wrote: At the moment, still prefer other O&G like Baker Tech. Also no debt and almost at cash value now.

Buddies who have considered the risks posted since a year ago when Penguin was >20cents would have done well to have sold or chose not to vest. The recent CRASH in Penguin share price is a good demonstration of herd investing behaviour, which unfortunately has happened even on VB where we are supposed to be more contrarian and value orientated.

can remember many bulls were announcing proudly they had bought in at 20c+ levels, etc. etc.


-nv-

Personally, i call this the small cap trap and i had learnt it the hard way. A small cap gets pushed into prominence after its share price has a good run, and subsequently, a growth story is been built around it to attract more liquidity. At this point, 'insiders' and the smart $ starts to exit. But for Penguin, i did notice that the difference with the previous small cap traps i had followed, was that it had a low P/E, compared to the other traps that had P/E in the small-to-medium teens....On hindsight, i guess this difference is the reason why it sucked in many VBs (low PE = undervaluation)

Many threads ago, someone posted youtube videos of emperor penguins. That to me, was the obvious red flag (of exuberance). Else-wise, it was really hard not to stick to the herd.

Aiya, no need to suan ppl lah... (although I have no position in penguin). The stocks that make money, one learns something. The stocks that don't make money, one learns more things. Even Buffet doesn't make money on all his positions. As long as one keeps learning, one can and will become a better investor lah.... The only kind of investor who doesn't lose money is one who doesn't invest any money. 

(22-08-2015, 10:23 AM)BlueKelah Wrote:

(21-08-2015, 01:06 PM)LocalOptimal Wrote:

(21-08-2015, 01:01 PM)new-comer1 Wrote: 10 cents coming soon -- Opportunity or continuous falling knives ?

IMO, if it ever hits 10 cents,  it's a good opportunity to buy a company with twice the NAV and healthy cash levels. Not to mention, an established branding in its industry.

yes, oil would have bottomed out when Penguin goes below 10cents.

At the moment, still prefer other O&G like Baker Tech. Also no debt and almost at cash value now.

Buddies who have considered the risks posted since a year ago when Penguin was >20cents would have done well to have sold or chose not to vest. The recent CRASH in Penguin share price is a good demonstration of herd investing behaviour, which unfortunately has happened even on VB where we are supposed to be more contrarian and value orientated.

can remember many bulls were announcing proudly they had bought in at 20c+ levels, etc. etc.


-nv-

what is Baker Tech? Baker Tech- if u bother to track back on history just happen to make $ off their sale of 10% stake in the Promet yard to YZJ...

They are just lucky.

Roadside sources said that the current Chang is no longer in talking terms with the original Promet Chang...

Baker Tech is another mickey mouse lah...

I am losing money in this counter, to-date. A glance revealed that a lose of approx -30% in this counter.

Is it a mistake? I reckon it shouldn't be concluded as mistake yet, but a poor market timing. I have never taken market timing as a performance yardstick, anyway. 

I read the posts in this thread, none, if not few have doubted on the company quality, but entry prices. Penguin is the market leader of crewboat, and having good market share. Crewboat is necessary, as long as staffs/refills needed for O&G off-shore operations.

I am thinking, is there a possibility that, we might be discussing totally different scenario, few months later, if oil price catch us by surprise again on its up trend? 

If a counter is actively traded by 'insiders', one has to relook at the company. It is hard to invest if someone has a clear advantage over you. Some counters are actively traded by 'insiders' (Aspial, Roxy...) who hate to see their share price fall while for some counters no qualms in seeing the share price fall as long as there are $$$ to make.

Why play a game where people has a big advantage over you......

(04-08-2015, 11:42 AM)Behappyalways Wrote: The sellers are most probably 'insiders'. What infor do they have that the 'outsiders' don't. My initital guess is significantly lower profits but my second guess now is one might see a loss......

not vested. just learning and watching......

(29-07-2015, 11:33 AM)Behappyalways Wrote: There is some selling down for no particular reasons.

My guess is that some people already had a 'glimpse' on the 2Q result.

When the 2Q result is out we will know if it is true.

Not vested