Regarding my Positive Black Swan strategy for stocks.
I made the calculations for my full list, it is made of 210 US stocks picked in April 2010. The picks were stored in a text file that has the property "Last modified on 04-15-2010" which proves that the picks of the said stocks were actually picked on the said period.
Here are the stats, everything was calculated starting from 15-Apr-2010:
List composed of 210 stocks.
The most profitable:
Ticker | Highest | Comment
NYSE:KV.A | +635%
NASDAQ:ZAGG | +422% | Trending now !
NASDAQ:JVA | +451% | Trending now !
NASDAQ:CVV | +362% | Trending now !
NASDAQ:MGIC | +284%
NASDAQ:MIPS | +274%
NASDAQ:HSTM | + 227% | Trending now !
NASDAQ:VIFL | +202% | Trending now !
The number of stocks that exceeded +100% in growth is 34. Which covers vastly the losses of the 22 companies that went out of business.
If all stocks were held from 15-Apr-2010 to 28-Jul-2011, the overall growth would be
+353.15%
If the stocks that surpassed +100% were sold at their highest levels, the overall growth would be
+2964.47%
By my standards these are very good results for 15 months trading.
I can answer questions, and any constructive comments will be appreciated.
By the way I am currently looking for a good job, contact me if you are serious investor(s).
BADI
(18-07-2011, 02:24 PM)Townboy Wrote: I am a big fan of Nassim Taleb and his Black Swan concept. I do not think he will approve the term "Black Swan Value investing" coined by thread starter. Nassim Taleb already said many times in his book that he could not understand stock market. To him, stock market is unpredictable and ruled by Black Swan (unpredictable and high impact events - be it positive and negative). One cannot predict a Black Swan and one can only TRY to protect oneself from it. Recent Middle East riots and Fukushima nuclear incident are Black Swan events.
The idea is not to predict the unpredictable, it is about an understanding of uncertainty and being exposed to the big opportunities.
Negative Black Swans are the popular ones since the 2007 crisis, but the Negative Black Swans are only half the story, I mentioned the quotes from NNT's book about Positive Black Swans, they are few but were a very good starting point for me.
Understanding Negative Black Swans helps you to be less in their way, understanding Positive Black Swans helps you to be more in their way.