Singapore narrows GDP growth forecast for the year

(13-08-2015, 12:26 AM)Big Toe Wrote: Time to re-look your investments.

In the short term, things dont look too good. Earnings in the U.S. is holding up well, but many companies have their share prices hammered anyway. China's stock market is over valued. In general, too much excess capacity at the factories in China. In Singapore, the stock market is probably fairly valued but there is no catalyst for growth, it is stagnant. Globally, anything to do with china/oil/commodities will get devalued, much like the RMB.

It could get ugly. I will usually look hard at my investment portfolio's potential downside and how much I could afford stomach, and those companies with a scary looking downside risk, whether to trim holdings to cut them totally. The down drift could be longer and harder than most would imagine, stay nimble.

We should regularly re-look into our investment, at least quarterly, but should not "tune" the portfolio on overall market condition. We may likely get surprises later.

I suggest to re-look into the fundamental of the companies, and "tune" the portfolio with "better" one. There are many cheap and good choices available, which may be much cheaper than similar one in your portfolio.

(providing an alternative view)

fundamentals of the biz change got not? if change, have to be logical.

Looking at where we are does matter.
While I may not pay so much attention to the market when valuation is much lower and recovery has only just started but look where we are now. It has been a multi year bull with no major correction to speak of(especially so in the U.S.). Relatively speaking, the balance of upside/down is not as favorable as before.

Ignoring macro market trend, is easy to say than done, but an important rule of value investing for good reason. It is always a hard time, to invest contradictory, including me

One important criteria for investing, is a favorable price. It will only available, when almost everyone is thinking, doom is coming. If we are right on selecting a fundamentally good company with a good price, we will never be too wrong even macro trend turn against us. We will be very right, if macro trend has turn right.

I have wait for years for Vicom to offer a good price, but it stays like a rock, over the years, and still so in current "doom" or "dooming" period.

I agree we need to know where we stand, but not as input for decisions, but for execution plans.

(sharing a view)

(14-08-2015, 09:55 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: Ignoring macro market trend, is easy to say than done, but an important rule of value investing for good reason. It is always a hard time, to invest contradictory, including me

One important criteria for investing, is a favorable price. It will only available, when almost everyone is thinking, doom is coming. If we are right on selecting a fundamentally good company with a good price, we will never be too wrong even macro trend turn against us. We will be very right, if macro trend has turn right.

I have wait for years for Vicom to offer a good price, but it stays like a rock, over the years, and still so in current "doom" or "dooming" period.

I agree we need to know where we stand, but not as input for decisions, but for execution plans.

(sharing a view)

CF, easy to invest for me as market down day is the day I can go stocks shopping.

Since STI hit below 3150 points this week, I have reallocated 10% of portfolio cash back into market buying back a couple of stocks I had taken profit when SGX was 3500 and have gone down since without any change in their fundamentals...

No need to worry about market still have ~40% portfolio in cash. If SGX go down another 10% from here lagi happy, can put some more cash in. If someone somewhere in some big central bank does stimulus and push markets up, then i am also happy can take profits

(14-08-2015, 11:24 AM)BlueKelah Wrote:

(14-08-2015, 09:55 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: Ignoring macro market trend, is easy to say than done, but an important rule of value investing for good reason. It is always a hard time, to invest contradictory, including me

One important criteria for investing, is a favorable price. It will only available, when almost everyone is thinking, doom is coming. If we are right on selecting a fundamentally good company with a good price, we will never be too wrong even macro trend turn against us. We will be very right, if macro trend has turn right.

I have wait for years for Vicom to offer a good price, but it stays like a rock, over the years, and still so in current "doom" or "dooming" period.

I agree we need to know where we stand, but not as input for decisions, but for execution plans.

(sharing a view)

CF, easy to invest for me as market down day is the day I can go stocks shopping.

Since STI hit below 3150 points this week, I have reallocated 10% of portfolio cash back into market buying back a couple of stocks I had taken profit when SGX was 3500 and have gone down since without any change in their fundamentals...

No need to worry about market still have ~40% portfolio in cash. If SGX go down another 10% from here lagi happy, can put some more cash in. If someone somewhere in some big central bank does stimulus and push markets up, then i am also happy can take profits

I admire the emotional control to go against the market.

My best wishes to your investment venture, sincerely

(14-08-2015, 11:33 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: I admire the emotional control to go against the market.

My best wishes to your investment venture, sincerely

CF thanks!

That's the point of my method, there is not much emotion involved, just get a list of stocks put on radar that fit buy criteria and wait for market to correct. I prefer this rather than having fully vested portfolio. Though if a market goes sideways and fluctuate less than 10% my cash will be sitting around not doing much (I just halve whatever dividend I get. So far the equity portion returns 7%+ so its 3.5% in total portfolio terms.) The last dip was Dec/Jan2014 period last year to similar levels where I last vested 10%. Have just been mostly selling since then and not done much buying till now Next will be dip below 2800 will buy lots of lots again heh...

added my usual CDW/UMS/PNE/Powermatic (yes now also officially an UMS fan)

STI (blue line) is nearly back to where it was 5 years ago..... no bull run in spite of all the QE unlike the S&P500 (red line).....

[Image: sti%20vs%20sp500%20past%205%20yrs_zpsihmhazog.jpg]


even tho the per capita GDP has grown over the past 5 years.....

[Image: singapore-gdp-per-capita.png?s=sgpnygdpp...ype=column]

Yup.

The fat has been there all the while.
Its amazing how it springs back so quickly.
Correction?
Nah!.. just knee jerk response!!

The amount of cash floating is just mind boggling.
War, protests, Greeks,Bombings,commodities slump, poor quarterly results,
no PRC tourists, elections, resignations, currency devaluations...
none are game changers. It bounces right back.

Cant be sure about the forward PE of STI, but current PE is about 20? Not exact but should not far off as well.
While the banks are looking rather attractive the rest does not look like a bargain to me. Genting is looking far too expensive at current levels. (But then again genting is expensive at any price )

Look again at all the Constituents of the STI, where is the growth in earnings going to come from? Maybe a recovery in oil price will help companies like keppel and the commodity firms. Banks will get a lift from rising interest rates, but little else can be seen that will boost the STI greatly.

I think there are still pockets of opportunities if we dig deeper in the listed companies and in Sg and US. But for most part, i do not foresee any catalyst pushing the STI very much higher. At best i see banks moving higher in the near term.