Black Swans value investing

I am a big fan of Nassim Taleb and his Black Swan concept. I do not think he will approve the term "Black Swan Value investing" coined by thread starter. Nassim Taleb already said many times in his book that he could not understand stock market. To him, stock market is unpredictable and ruled by Black Swan (unpredictable and high impact events - be it positive and negative). One cannot predict a Black Swan and one can only TRY to protect oneself from it. Recent Middle East riots and Fukushima nuclear incident are Black Swan events.

(18-07-2011, 02:24 PM)Townboy Wrote: I am a big fan of Nassim Taleb and his Black Swan concept. I do not think he will approve the term "Black Swan Value investing" coined by thread starter. Nassim Taleb already said many times in his book that he could not understand stock market. To him, stock market is unpredictable and ruled by Black Swan (unpredictable and high impact events - be it positive and negative). One cannot predict a Black Swan and one can only TRY to protect oneself from it. Recent Middle East riots and Fukushima nuclear incident are Black Swan events.

Precisely

(17-07-2011, 09:56 PM)wsreader Wrote: Agreed that it does not matter whether the businesses are black or white swans, so long as it is profitable for the shareholders, it is a good business.

OMG! I think you may have stumbled on something! An adaptation of Deng Xiao Ping's famous quote,

不管白猫黑猫，会捉老鼠就是好猫

ie. Irregardless of whether a cat is white or black, a cat which can catch mice is a good cat.

Perhaps we should search for more of his quote and adapt his wisdom for investing

The results previously posted about INSM growth of over %1200 were incorrect because the stock market simulator I used didn't take in consideration a split in the company's shares.

My strategy is still sound, it may take time to prove.

Regarding my Positive Black Swan strategy for stocks.

I made the calculations for my full list, it is made of 210 US stocks picked in April 2010. The picks were stored in a text file that has the property "Last modified on 04-15-2010" which proves that the picks of the said stocks were actually picked on the said period.

Here are the stats, everything was calculated starting from 15-Apr-2010:

List composed of 210 stocks.

The most profitable:
Ticker | Highest | Comment
NYSE:KV.A | +635%
NASDAQ:ZAGG | +422% | Trending now !
NASDAQ:JVA | +451% | Trending now !
NASDAQ:CVV | +362% | Trending now !
NASDAQ:MGIC | +284%
NASDAQ:MIPS | +274%
NASDAQ:HSTM | + 227% | Trending now !
NASDAQ:VIFL | +202% | Trending now !

The number of stocks that exceeded +100% in growth is 34. Which covers vastly the losses of the 22 companies that went out of business.

If all stocks were held from 15-Apr-2010 to 28-Jul-2011, the overall growth would be +353.15%

If the stocks that surpassed +100% were sold at their highest levels, the overall growth would be +2964.47%

By my standards these are very good results for 15 months trading.

I can answer questions, and any constructive comments will be appreciated.

By the way I am currently looking for a good job, contact me if you are serious investor(s).

BADI

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(18-07-2011, 02:24 PM)Townboy Wrote: I am a big fan of Nassim Taleb and his Black Swan concept. I do not think he will approve the term "Black Swan Value investing" coined by thread starter. Nassim Taleb already said many times in his book that he could not understand stock market. To him, stock market is unpredictable and ruled by Black Swan (unpredictable and high impact events - be it positive and negative). One cannot predict a Black Swan and one can only TRY to protect oneself from it. Recent Middle East riots and Fukushima nuclear incident are Black Swan events.

The idea is not to predict the unpredictable, it is about an understanding of uncertainty and being exposed to the big opportunities.

Negative Black Swans are the popular ones since the 2007 crisis, but the Negative Black Swans are only half the story, I mentioned the quotes from NNT's book about Positive Black Swans, they are few but were a very good starting point for me.

Understanding Negative Black Swans helps you to be less in their way, understanding Positive Black Swans helps you to be more in their way.

Quote:By the way I am currently looking for a good job, contact me if you are serious investor(s).

ROFL.....

(29-07-2011, 08:48 AM)yeokiwi Wrote:

Quote:By the way I am currently looking for a good job, contact me if you are serious investor(s).

ROFL.....

FOCL.....

@yeokiwi, KopiKat: yeah, this thread is very funny, thanks for wasting the storage space of this website with your useless comments.

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non constructive comments shall be ignored.

(29-07-2011, 06:02 PM)badi Wrote: @yeokiwi, KopiKat: yeah, this thread is very funny, thanks for wasting the storage space of this website with your useless comments.

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non constructive comments shall be ignored.

You are most welcome, no need to thank me!

I benefitted a lot from both constructive and non-constructive comments during the Wallstraits forum days when gurus / experts appeared every once in a while to introduce exiting new products that produces superior returns, such as Oilpods, Profitable Plots, Sunshine Empire (? - can't remember the exact name, but what's most memorable was the boss being profiled on Sunday Times claiming he's better than Warren Buffett). Even products like UK TEP from a reputable forummer who was certain UK Pounds would go up and give us additional returns, I'm most certainly glad I had the chance to read both constructive and non-constructive comments back then before I made any decision to part with my hard earned money....

I suppose you mean positive and negative analysis, every analysis deserves attention, but short words I had to look up on Google to understand were just silly... I am not calling you silly person, but the comment most certainly was...

I care for analysis and don't care much about tendencies, traders who rely only on popular strategies are the sideway's losers... Sometimes it may even be convenient to short sell what is hype and trendy...