(06-08-2015, 08:23 PM)vingaard Wrote: The one thing I'm uncomfortable with is the large amount of working capital tied up in inventory, resulting in negative free cash flow. Perhaps that's why valuation in terms of PE will remain low.
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I suppose in this watch retail business we should believe that backed by a proper merchandising strategy and effective marketing, stocks will turn into sales/revenue and incoming cash receipts in a steady, predictable manner. Based on the latest 30Jun15 group B/S, THG held stocks/inventory amounted to $325.9m - equivalent to 2.65x of 1Q's COGS of $123.0m, or approx. 8 months' worth of stocks. Bearing in mind THG is adding new stores - which will require more stocks - and the usual busy Christmas/after year-end bonus/CNY shoppings fall in 3Q (ending 31Dec) and 4Q (ending 31Mar), the current stock level is not excessive by THG's own historical averages.
We should also bear in mind that the Thai operation held under a 50%-owned associate is enjoying rapid growth - as evidenced by the sharp 174% yoy increase in the "Share of results of associates" to $1.845m in the P&L. I suppose the Thai operation would have to draw stocks from THG to support its growing business volume.
I suppose the best way to appreciate THG's business is to pay a visit to its small but beautiful flagship store located at TAKASHIMAYA S.C., 391 Orchard Road #01-02, Ngee Ann City. I believe that is one of the most beautiful and high-traffic multi-brand branded watch retail shores in the world.
As well, one can easily follow THG's many events and watch presentations by visiting the company's blog....
http://www.thehourglass.com
A good example is how THG introduces the increasing popular Rolex Oyster Perpetual Submariner Date model....
http://www.thehourglass.com/rolex-oyster...iner-date/
THG now is an "Official Rolex Jeweller" and no longer just another Rolex retailer.