55 SG Financial Blogs that Actually Inspire You to Think Rich and Grow Rich

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http://www.moneydigest.sg/55-sg-financial-blogs-that-actually-inspire-you-to-think-rich-and-grow-rich/

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Great compilation!

A quick back of the envelope calculation and about half of these blogs do not even have the shell life or experience that underwent the baptism of GFC2009. These are the new fools in the market. There are another 20% that may be more interested in selling (or eventually doing so) their services, rather than buy/sell equities instead.

The signals among the noise would probably be less than a handful (8percent, SMOL, AK, musicwhiz, felixleong, paullow to name a few). Ironically, the cream of the crop, Dr Michael Leong's blog had already stoppped doing so, some time ago.

Dr. Michael Leong has new forum... Pertama.

However, it is dominated with TA.

Its true that they have not faced GFC and that does change their analysis of companies. Everyone has to start somewhere though.

It may be interesting to see who survives the next big one, but I don't think anyone should be faulted for not going through a financial crisis.

(04-08-2015, 08:10 PM)mulyc Wrote: It may be interesting to see who survives the next big one, but I don't think anyone should be faulted for not going through a financial crisis.

hi mulyc,
It is definitely no fault of anyone's. I apologize if i sound like i am faulting or belittling anyone for not going through a crisis before. I would like to clarify that my posting is just an observation that i made after reading through the links. Whether new fools or old fools or scammers, all of us have a part to play in Mr Market ecosystem.

My view is that anyone who has not gone through a financial crisis cum bear market hasn't really got a sense of what the word "risk" means. It doesn't help that the ZIRP and the printing of copious amounts of money by various governments has also created a false sense of security - but the idea is to promote "growth at all cost", even if this means kicking the can down the road.

Many of the newer investors do not focus enough on the downside, but instead look to chase the upside or are trying to quantify (with their models) how much profit they can make. While a few do conscientiously watch out for the risks and possibility of loss, not many may realize just how brutal a bear market and economic downturn can be. There are many investors waiting on the sidelines to buy on market dips, or hoping for a market crash so that they can scoop things up "cheaply", but remember that sometimes there are reasons why companies become "cheap", and value traps are also aplenty for the unwary.

It is therefore important to always ensure one takes care of the worst case scenario through downside assessment and analysis - you cannot completely eliminate losses but it is possible to minimize their impact on your portfolio. And oh yes, dividends do help too - so make sure the companies you analyze and buy will be able to weather storms and still generate FCF and pay a dividend*.

*Hint: Observe which companies managed to do so through the GFC/AFC/SARS period; which is why a 10-15 year compilation of a Company is so important. Track record does give you an idea how Management reacts to crises and how prudent they are in managing their business and the Balance Sheet.

(05-08-2015, 02:47 PM)Musicwhiz Wrote: It is therefore important to always ensure one takes care of the worst case scenario through downside assessment and analysis - you cannot completely eliminate losses but it is possible to minimize their impact on your portfolio. And oh yes, dividends do help too - so make sure the companies you analyze and buy will be able to weather storms and still generate FCF and pay a dividend*.

I find it especially amusing when one's way to deal with the worst case scenario is 'if it continues to go south to XXX (price), i will average down. If it continues to fall another X% and i run out of bullets, then i will just hang on for the next X years. Anyways, based on the XXX dividends that i will receive, i will break even after Y years'....These are the new fools in the market.

The old fools know better after making so many mistakes (and survive and prosper for some). They abhor 'average down' because they understood the financial and emotional pain of catching that failing knife. They respect the Market because it has been 1 of his/her greatest humiliator based on the surprises it never fails to dish out every time. For example, our residential 'old fool' forummer GG has played this game long enough to hypothesize that the end of the O&G cycle will come if our 2 biggest rig builders merge in their final attempt to survive...This is what i would call a worst case scenario insight/planning.

(05-08-2015, 09:31 PM)weijian Wrote:

(05-08-2015, 02:47 PM)Musicwhiz Wrote: It is therefore important to always ensure one takes care of the worst case scenario through downside assessment and analysis - you cannot completely eliminate losses but it is possible to minimize their impact on your portfolio. And oh yes, dividends do help too - so make sure the companies you analyze and buy will be able to weather storms and still generate FCF and pay a dividend*.

I find it especially amusing when one's way to deal with the worst case scenario is 'if it continues to go south to XXX (price), i will average down. If it continues to fall another X% and i run out of bullets, then i will just hang on for the next X years. Anyways, based on the XXX dividends that i will receive, i will break even after Y years'....These are the new fools in the market.

The old fools know better after making so many mistakes (and survive and prosper for some). They abhor 'average down' because they understood the financial and emotional pain of catching that failing knife. They respect the Market because it has been 1 of his/her greatest humiliator based on the surprises it never fails to dish out every time. For example, our residential 'old fool' forummer GG has played this game long enough to hypothesize that the end of the O&G cycle will come if our 2 biggest rig builders merge in their final attempt to survive...This is what i would call a worst case scenario insight/planning.

Worst case, is usually happen at the tail end of the bell curve, which is un-predictable, and a black-swan event. The last encounter of mine, is the Japan Earthquake, followed by a Thai Flood. I have ever imagined the two will happen months apart, and affecting the auto and electronic market in sequence, of a company I vested then.

What a lesson.