Noble Group

CF appreciate your attempt to do some sort of valuation for us VB.

would say that like the many S-Chips and Enron, the thing to learn is that with a fraudulent company valuation is pointless.

I wonder who Enron owes the most money to, at the very end, usually its those people who gets first dibs on whatevers left, shareholders usually end up with nothing.

of course some big boss or company may see value and if they have insider knowledge that the true value is really worth it, they will probably come in to make a deal at a cheap price.

However if accounts are fraudulent, we will probably see more drops in share prices until it is no longer an index component.

If there is no investigation by regulator or whistleblower with concrete evidence, not much OPMI can do for now except cut loss or hold on and hope for some sort of rescue in the future.

(31-07-2015, 04:37 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(31-07-2015, 03:07 PM)Bibi Wrote:

(31-07-2015, 02:04 PM)Sampling Wrote: at the current price PE still >20...

in my opinion still a lot of room for it to go down further!

I purchased it based on PB. It took an impairment loss of 200+ millions last FY 2014 and hence the PE > 20. Of course we can argue till the cows come home. E.g book value is overstated, impairment loss should be much more etc.. I am no expert in that area hence this puny stake for fun.

To join the fun, I am working out the "safer" price to bet on Noble. All in S$ from shareinvestor.com

Current Asset : 20.7 billion
Total Liabilities : 19.2 billion
Liquidation Value without discount (Current Asset - Total Liabilities) : 1.5 billion
Outstanding Share (ex-Treasury) : 6.4 billion shares
LV per share : ~24 cents per share.

How much is the fixed asset worth, which is the hardest question. Let's make a 75% cut of the fixed asset from 5.5 billion to 1.4 billion, or ~22 cents per share.

Total : 24 cents + 22 cents = 46 cents per share, which is very close to current market price.

Is the company over-sold, to an irrational valuation? I guess it is very likely so.

What do you think?

(not vested, and not prepare to bet)

Wow thats much more detailed than what I usually do. I only take 70% of NTA 75 cts which is 52.5 cts. Anything less is deemed undervalued to me. Of course there are other caveats like if its intangibles are high I will study it more carefully and might even discount it totally from the net assets equation.

Three Years Ago This Coal Mine Was Worth $624 Million. Now It Sold for $1
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...in-of-coal

(01-08-2015, 09:38 AM)Bibi Wrote:

(31-07-2015, 04:37 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(31-07-2015, 03:07 PM)Bibi Wrote:

(31-07-2015, 02:04 PM)Sampling Wrote: at the current price PE still >20...

in my opinion still a lot of room for it to go down further!

I purchased it based on PB. It took an impairment loss of 200+ millions last FY 2014 and hence the PE > 20. Of course we can argue till the cows come home. E.g book value is overstated, impairment loss should be much more etc.. I am no expert in that area hence this puny stake for fun.

To join the fun, I am working out the "safer" price to bet on Noble. All in S$ from shareinvestor.com

Current Asset : 20.7 billion
Total Liabilities : 19.2 billion
Liquidation Value without discount (Current Asset - Total Liabilities) : 1.5 billion
Outstanding Share (ex-Treasury) : 6.4 billion shares
LV per share : ~24 cents per share.

How much is the fixed asset worth, which is the hardest question. Let's make a 75% cut of the fixed asset from 5.5 billion to 1.4 billion, or ~22 cents per share.

Total : 24 cents + 22 cents = 46 cents per share, which is very close to current market price.

Is the company over-sold, to an irrational valuation? I guess it is very likely so.

What do you think?

(not vested, and not prepare to bet)

Wow thats much more detailed than what I usually do. I only take 70% of NTA 75 cts which is 52.5 cts. Anything less is deemed undervalued to me. Of course there are other caveats like if its intangibles are high I will study it more carefully and might even discount it totally from the net assets equation.

Hmm, this seems to assume Noble valued their commodity contracts (listed under current assets) correctly. Wasn't this how the whole accounting valuation problem started? It takes up a hefty 6.7b, without which Noble's NCAV would be negative.

A quick summary for those who are not following the company but reading (and curious) a lot of headlines about the company (like me).

https://www.fool.sg/2015/07/31/whats-beh...in-a-week/

What strikes me is that the board could resolve many of the issues facing them in a heartbeat, but have chosen not to by hiding behind corporate doublespeak. Either they can't, or don't want to.

Either case is troubling at the very least.

(01-08-2015, 10:37 AM)Behappyalways Wrote: Three Years Ago This Coal Mine Was Worth $624 Million. Now It Sold for $1
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...in-of-coal

If u go to perth and visit some mining towns which were booming just couple years back, u will see many become ghost towns with many heavy machinery and trucks park at the roadside, left there to rust. Those smaller mining companies can go bankrupt quickly and everyone just leaves town.

Yancoal may end up like that and noble will have to MTM yancoal for $0 . Any attempt at valuation of noble should take nobles stake as worth $0

I will take a jab at predicting that next quarter result will be very bad and noble stock will be out of STI and likely halted before year end.

Perhaps sgx should launch an investigation...

sent from my Galaxy Tab S

(02-08-2015, 03:24 PM)BlueKelah Wrote:

(01-08-2015, 10:37 AM)Behappyalways Wrote: Three Years Ago This Coal Mine Was Worth $624 Million. Now It Sold for $1
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...in-of-coal

If u go to perth and visit some mining towns which were booming just couple years back, u will see many become ghost towns with many heavy machinery and trucks park at the roadside, left there to rust. Those smaller mining companies can go bankrupt quickly and everyone just leaves town.

The fact that it is sold means that there is value, not now but maybe in 10 years time. The coal or whatever assets underneath the soil has not changed. The best time to buy distressed assets is probably now.

$1 dollar is a nominal rate for accounting purposes, you and I can't walk in with a dollar to buy because whoever bought it probably had to assume whatever debt there is. If there was a chance, I would have bought it at $1 dollar too, then let the coal continue to sit there. LOL.

The update can be interpreted in two ways.

Optimistic view: Bad news are usually announced, before long break, to allow more settling time. The Aug 10 announcement is always indicating a "good" news compare with Aug 13.

Pessimistic view: The management is eagerly to bring the announcement date forward, to allow them to support the market, via share-buy-back earlier, before it is too late.

Where are you stand between them? Or you have different views

Noble to unveil 2Q earnings, PwC report earlier on Aug 10 to address allegations
...
To address the allegations “as soon as possible”, the firm has brought forward the release of its 2Q earnings to Aug 10 from Aug 13. Both Aug 7 and 10 are public holidays in Singapore, and the Singapore Exchange will be close.

Noble says it will also provide more disclosures around the Yancoal valuation and on the inventory sales on the same day.

The "Investor Day" in Singapore will be held on a date to be announced. There will be no restrictions on third party attendance nor on questions within the time available.
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...llegations

The macro is no longer on their side unfortunately...

(03-08-2015, 10:28 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: The update can be interpreted in two ways.

Optimistic view: Bad news are usually announced, before long break, to allow more settling time. The Aug 10 announcement is always indicating a "good" news compare with Aug 13.

Pessimistic view: The management is eagerly to bring the announcement date forward, to allow them to support the market, via share-buy-back earlier, before it is too late.

Where are you stand between them? Or you have different views

Noble to unveil 2Q earnings, PwC report earlier on Aug 10 to address allegations
...
To address the allegations “as soon as possible”, the firm has brought forward the release of its 2Q earnings to Aug 10 from Aug 13. Both Aug 7 and 10 are public holidays in Singapore, and the Singapore Exchange will be close.

Noble says it will also provide more disclosures around the Yancoal valuation and on the inventory sales on the same day.

The "Investor Day" in Singapore will be held on a date to be announced. There will be no restrictions on third party attendance nor on questions within the time available.
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...llegations