Penguin International

Deep deep red

CF hope u managed to buy more today to average down, cheap cheap now rite?

sent from my Galaxy Tab S

(30-07-2015, 06:25 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: CF hope u managed to buy more today to average down, cheap cheap now rite?

sent from my Galaxy Tab S

After the last round of buying, the weight-age has reached a threshold, that portfolio diversification kick-in.

The current price isn't too far below from my last price anyway. Yes, I regretted to buy too much last round

How about you? I recall, you highlighted that you will invest when it reaches around the current price, right?

(vested, and will remain vested)

Think I highlighted it would be worth taking a look if goes below 15c, which it may or may not get to. That's when start looking more attractive to me..

two risk with high possibility still remain which is the possibilty of
1) a much lower O&G/Shipping picture
2) and of course a global market correction of sorts.
3) As of now net cash is at around 30% of Mcap which may not offer much downside "protection" for a small cap despite a discount to NAV of about 25% now, dun forget it was 10c level not so long ago(of course circumstances were different back then but the potential to revisit that level is there)

Besides volume is still pretty high, i prefer collect when its at lows and not much interest,volume in the stock . Which again may or may not happen. It is already on my buy-in list.

Waiting to cash out of PCI and Avitech after this quarter full year announcement assuming market holds, perhaps will vest some Penguin then. Rest of portfolio allocation will be buy-in only when Sgx drop to 3100 level.

This time round the sharp and drastic fall in oil price has hit the entire offshore oil & gas sector like a bolt of lightning, hurting it with a devastating impact. It is likely that only solid companies - with proven products/services, diversified revenue streams, conservative balance sheets, and more importantly, a competent/driven/prudent management - will survive, and some may even come out the storm stronger, by taking advantage of any good opportunities that may emerge. Can we count Penguin as one of them?

Global market correction, isn't a risk to me, but rather an opportunity to buy. It may not be "cheap cheap", if not due to the correction, right?

The O&G down cycle, is a real risk. Based on the readings, nobody seems sure on the trend, even among experts. I have given up to predict, but to ensure good price on good company, which is also likely able to sustain the down cycle. Together with portfolio diversification, the overall risk should be under-controlled.

(sharing a view)

I will wait for their next quarter results to be out 1st before making my next move

(31-07-2015, 09:03 AM)dydx Wrote: This time round the sharp and drastic fall in oil price has hit the entire offshore oil & gas sector like a bolt of lightning, hurting it with a devastating impact. It is likely that only solid companies - with proven products/services, diversified revenue streams, conservative balance sheets, and more importantly, a competent/driven/prudent management - will survive, and some may even come out the storm stronger, by taking advantage of any good opportunities that may emerge. Can we count Penguin as one of them?

dydx your question is moot, of course penguin will survive with strong balance sheet and net cash position and option to tap equity markets. It's those companies with high leverage and debt and have already had lots of rights/bond issues that will run into serious trouble during significant downturns. But is it a BUY at this price and would you load up?

thanks for highlighting this great company and for your well phrased bullish posts even in times where outlook for the company is negative. It seems you have probably been vested since 10cent or less days, couple years back. Hope you managed to cash in at the 25c levels peak?

It would be better for other valuebuddies if you could state at what price points and at what valuations would look attractive and that you have vested, much like what CF has done rather than make obvious statements about "how good" a company is

just an insight to share, penguin international is a customer of my company, there were a lot of orders from them during the second half of last year, but during the past few months, they have requested to delay deliveries, for most of the projects

-not vested-

It will be very interesting to see what is said in the Q2 statement, due in the next 1 to 2 weeks. Issues for me are:

1. How quickly have they managed to cut costs, in response to the changed market. I remember being very impressed with how a lot of small cap Singapore companies slashed costs quickly in response to the downturn in 2008. Is Penguin another company that can turn on a dime, or not?
2. Have they pulled back sharply on boat building? The danger is that they keep building for stock, with few sales, which would keep up (on paper) boat building profits, but if those boats are just swinging at anchor, those profits would not be real, at least until the boats are sold or leased. There were indications in the 1Q statement that they were pulling back to some extent.
3. Is there any sign that there may be more leasing of boats, rather than sales? - one reaction to a downturn by client companies is to lease rather than buy equipment, to minimise capital expenditure.
4. Are they managing to develop further in the non-O & G market, like the 3 high speed ferries sold last year?

Answer to those questions will help show just how competent/driven/prudent the management of Penguin is. Trouble is, they tend to be reticent in giving out a lot of this information, although some of it can be gleaned from the numbers.

(31-07-2015, 09:03 AM)dydx Wrote: This time round the sharp and drastic fall in oil price has hit the entire offshore oil & gas sector like a bolt of lightning, hurting it with a devastating impact. It is likely that only solid companies - with proven products/services, diversified revenue streams, conservative balance sheets, and more importantly, a competent/driven/prudent management - will survive, and some may even come out the storm stronger, by taking advantage of any good opportunities that may emerge. Can we count Penguin as one of them?