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Rts abitraging operations over. Trading in J C&C is normalising...
Trend reversal is very obvious today and v little algo sellers in rts after lunch
No worries
(08-07-2015, 03:46 PM)investingsgx Wrote: target price 26.50
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Confirm trend reversal after spike bottom today. Ended just 2 cents off the peak...
The long march recovery coming...
DJ Jardine C&C is Oversold After Rights Issue: Macquarie -- Market Talk (2015/07/08 15:04PM)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0704 GMT [Dow Jones] Singapore-listed Jardine Cycle & Carriage (C07.SG) is sold down further as investors react more severely to its June rights issue than expected, says Macquarie Singapore head of research Conrad Werner. "I'm scratching my head about why the decline has been so precipitous," he says, arguing that Jardine's exposure to Indonesian auto maker Astra International (ASII.JK), which accounts for 90% of its earnings, isn't as much of a negative as the market would seem to think. "Astra's fundamentals aren't as good as they were in the past," he says, but notes that Astra's own share price has fared better in recent weeks since its results than that of Jardine. Mr. Werner has a target price of 37.60 Singapore dollars a share on Jardine Cycle & Carriage, which compares with its Wednesday trading price of S$29.95. (jake.watts@wsj.com; @jmwatts_)
Editor: JFN
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 08, 2015 03:04 ET (07:04 GMT)
Copyright © 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
(08-07-2015, 04:12 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Rts abitraging operations over. Trading in J C&C is normalising...
Trend reversal is very obvious today and v little algo sellers in rts after lunch
No worries
(08-07-2015, 03:46 PM)investingsgx Wrote: target price 26.50
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(08-07-2015, 07:34 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Confirm trend reversal after spike bottom today. Ended just 2 cents off the peak...
The long march recovery coming...
DJ Jardine C&C is Oversold After Rights Issue: Macquarie -- Market Talk (2015/07/08 15:04PM)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0704 GMT [Dow Jones] Singapore-listed Jardine Cycle & Carriage (C07.SG) is sold down further as investors react more severely to its June rights issue than expected, says Macquarie Singapore head of research Conrad Werner. "I'm scratching my head about why the decline has been so precipitous," he says, arguing that Jardine's exposure to Indonesian auto maker Astra International (ASII.JK), which accounts for 90% of its earnings, isn't as much of a negative as the market would seem to think. "Astra's fundamentals aren't as good as they were in the past," he says, but notes that Astra's own share price has fared better in recent weeks since its results than that of Jardine. Mr. Werner has a target price of 37.60 Singapore dollars a share on Jardine Cycle & Carriage, which compares with its Wednesday trading price of S$29.95. (jake.watts@wsj.com; @jmwatts_)
Editor: JFN
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 08, 2015 03:04 ET (07:04 GMT)
Copyright © 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
(08-07-2015, 04:12 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Rts abitraging operations over. Trading in J C&C is normalising...
Trend reversal is very obvious today and v little algo sellers in rts after lunch
No worries
(08-07-2015, 03:46 PM)investingsgx Wrote: target price 26.50
Singapore's reputation is suffering somehow...
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08-07-2015, 09:22 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-07-2015, 10:09 PM by cyclone.)
Based on my riskless arbitrage theory, I have conducted the following forensic studies:
The rights started trading on 1 Jul and the following are the turnover in units:
Mother shares: 4.924m shares
Rights: 4.721m
The theoretical ex rights price on 24 Jun was $34.21
The day before rights started trading on 30 Jun, mother shares ended at 33.10
Today's intraday low is $28.78
Total JC&C paid up cap is currently 395.236m
Assuming 80% of 4.721m rights were related to algo based arbitrage = 3.776m shares
Average margin of $0.10, the arbitrage profits before SGX clearing is $0.3776m
The mkt cap wipe out from the 30 Jun to today's intraday low is S$1707m
It is amazing how for less than S$0.4m riskless profits, mkt cap in excess of S$1707m can be wipeoff a bluechip and resulting in all sorts of noise and nerve wreck on a stock.
A remiser friend of mine was asking - doesn't watch dog investigate such erratic market movements? Is this part of normal business?
It also bring me back to my broken recorder: What is the investigation outcome of the crash of the 3 msian penny stocks? Is someone sleeping?
Is this part of normal business?
Vested
J C&C
[Modified by Admin : (33.1 - 28.78)*395.236m = 1707m, not 170.7m as stated previously by GG]
(07-07-2015, 06:16 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Its computer driven algo trading...
Once the computer long the rights, it will just sell the mother shares with borrowed scripts which will be return once the rights are subscribed.
U can see the fairly constant trading spread between the rights and the mother shares.
There are plenty of big bank backed traders that are using their computer trading systems to get this riskless arbitrage.
On ASX, such a phenomenon seldom exists as rights are non renounceable.
Rights trading last day on Thursday.
J C&C steep decline started when rights were first announced and when actual rights trading started, all hell break loose. Trading volume is also extraordinarily high.
Many companies with rights issues have experienced such selloff before.
Basically, its human against computers and in a relentless decline, negative sentiment and hence all sorts of justifications emerges and hence feed through to the vicious cycle.
Don't believe too much in my conspiracy theories. Do check against Astra and JC
&C share price over last 5 yrs via bloomberg.
Trading Vested
GG
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You make a good point GG, I'm sure SIAS should be aware of this. Maybe Gerard would look into it?
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Who is SIAS... I never thought they have done much to minorities...
They are just another microphone to me...
Pardon me but this is not a disrespect to Mr Gerald. What have they done to help MI so far?
GG
(08-07-2015, 09:51 PM)MINX Wrote: You make a good point GG, I'm sure SIAS should be aware of this. Maybe Gerard would look into it?
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I just had a peek at JSH share price chart which owns 74.34% stake in J C&C - almost similar...
Ie, impact because of $0.4m riskless arbitrage profits impact is definitely more than S$1.7bn could well be double... or triple if we take into account JMH as well...
Amazing
(08-07-2015, 09:22 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Based on my riskless arbitrage theory, I have conducted the following forensic studies:
The rights started trading on 1 Jul and the following are the turnover in units:
Mother shares: 4.924m shares
Rights: 4.721m
The theoretical ex rights price on 24 Jun was $34.21
The day before rights started trading on 30 Jun, mother shares ended at 33.10
Today's intraday low is $28.78
Total JC&C paid up cap is currently 395.236m
Assuming 80% of 4.721m rights were related to algo based arbitrage = 3.776m shares
Average margin of $0.10, the arbitrage profits before SGX clearing is $0.3776m
The mkt cap wipe out from the 30 Jun to today's intraday low is S$1707m
It is amazing how for less than S$0.4m riskless profits, mkt cap in excess of S$1707m can be wipeoff a bluechip and resulting in all sorts of noise and nerve wreck on a stock.
A remiser friend of mine was asking - doesn't watch dog investigate such erratic market movements? Is this part of normal business?
It also bring me back to my broken recorder: What is the investigation outcome of the crash of the 3 msian penny stocks? Is someone sleeping?
Is this part of normal business?
Vested
J C&C
[Modified by Admin : (33.1 - 28.78)*395.236m = 1707m, not 170.7m as stated previously by GG]
(07-07-2015, 06:16 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Its computer driven algo trading...
Once the computer long the rights, it will just sell the mother shares with borrowed scripts which will be return once the rights are subscribed.
U can see the fairly constant trading spread between the rights and the mother shares.
There are plenty of big bank backed traders that are using their computer trading systems to get this riskless arbitrage.
On ASX, such a phenomenon seldom exists as rights are non renounceable.
Rights trading last day on Thursday.
J C&C steep decline started when rights were first announced and when actual rights trading started, all hell break loose. Trading volume is also extraordinarily high.
Many companies with rights issues have experienced such selloff before.
Basically, its human against computers and in a relentless decline, negative sentiment and hence all sorts of justifications emerges and hence feed through to the vicious cycle.
Don't believe too much in my conspiracy theories. Do check against Astra and JC
&C share price over last 5 yrs via bloomberg.
Trading Vested
GG
Posts: 8,305
Threads: 496
Joined: Jul 2011
Reputation:
60
Empire strikes back...
Human perseverance will prevail over human designed computer trading system...
High 31.67 today but already quite good at 31.20 now...
(09-07-2015, 09:21 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: I just had a peek at JSH share price chart which owns 74.34% stake in J C&C - almost similar...
Ie, impact because of $0.4m riskless arbitrage profits impact is definitely more than S$1.7bn could well be double... or triple if we take into account JMH as well...
Amazing
(08-07-2015, 09:22 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Based on my riskless arbitrage theory, I have conducted the following forensic studies:
The rights started trading on 1 Jul and the following are the turnover in units:
Mother shares: 4.924m shares
Rights: 4.721m
The theoretical ex rights price on 24 Jun was $34.21
The day before rights started trading on 30 Jun, mother shares ended at 33.10
Today's intraday low is $28.78
Total JC&C paid up cap is currently 395.236m
Assuming 80% of 4.721m rights were related to algo based arbitrage = 3.776m shares
Average margin of $0.10, the arbitrage profits before SGX clearing is $0.3776m
The mkt cap wipe out from the 30 Jun to today's intraday low is S$1707m
It is amazing how for less than S$0.4m riskless profits, mkt cap in excess of S$1707m can be wipeoff a bluechip and resulting in all sorts of noise and nerve wreck on a stock.
A remiser friend of mine was asking - doesn't watch dog investigate such erratic market movements? Is this part of normal business?
It also bring me back to my broken recorder: What is the investigation outcome of the crash of the 3 msian penny stocks? Is someone sleeping?
Is this part of normal business?
Vested
J C&C
[Modified by Admin : (33.1 - 28.78)*395.236m = 1707m, not 170.7m as stated previously by GG]
(07-07-2015, 06:16 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Its computer driven algo trading...
Once the computer long the rights, it will just sell the mother shares with borrowed scripts which will be return once the rights are subscribed.
U can see the fairly constant trading spread between the rights and the mother shares.
There are plenty of big bank backed traders that are using their computer trading systems to get this riskless arbitrage.
On ASX, such a phenomenon seldom exists as rights are non renounceable.
Rights trading last day on Thursday.
J C&C steep decline started when rights were first announced and when actual rights trading started, all hell break loose. Trading volume is also extraordinarily high.
Many companies with rights issues have experienced such selloff before.
Basically, its human against computers and in a relentless decline, negative sentiment and hence all sorts of justifications emerges and hence feed through to the vicious cycle.
Don't believe too much in my conspiracy theories. Do check against Astra and JC
&C share price over last 5 yrs via bloomberg.
Trading Vested
GG
Posts: 232
Threads: 0
Joined: Apr 2013
Reputation:
3
(09-07-2015, 12:29 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Empire strikes back...
Human perseverance will prevail over human designed computer trading system...
High 31.67 today but already quite good at 31.20 now...
(09-07-2015, 09:21 AM)greengiraffe Wrote: I just had a peek at JSH share price chart which owns 74.34% stake in J C&C - almost similar...
Ie, impact because of $0.4m riskless arbitrage profits impact is definitely more than S$1.7bn could well be double... or triple if we take into account JMH as well...
Amazing
(08-07-2015, 09:22 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Based on my riskless arbitrage theory, I have conducted the following forensic studies:
The rights started trading on 1 Jul and the following are the turnover in units:
Mother shares: 4.924m shares
Rights: 4.721m
The theoretical ex rights price on 24 Jun was $34.21
The day before rights started trading on 30 Jun, mother shares ended at 33.10
Today's intraday low is $28.78
Total JC&C paid up cap is currently 395.236m
Assuming 80% of 4.721m rights were related to algo based arbitrage = 3.776m shares
Average margin of $0.10, the arbitrage profits before SGX clearing is $0.3776m
The mkt cap wipe out from the 30 Jun to today's intraday low is S$1707m
It is amazing how for less than S$0.4m riskless profits, mkt cap in excess of S$1707m can be wipeoff a bluechip and resulting in all sorts of noise and nerve wreck on a stock.
A remiser friend of mine was asking - doesn't watch dog investigate such erratic market movements? Is this part of normal business?
It also bring me back to my broken recorder: What is the investigation outcome of the crash of the 3 msian penny stocks? Is someone sleeping?
Is this part of normal business?
Vested
J C&C
[Modified by Admin : (33.1 - 28.78)*395.236m = 1707m, not 170.7m as stated previously by GG]
(07-07-2015, 06:16 PM)greengiraffe Wrote: Its computer driven algo trading...
Once the computer long the rights, it will just sell the mother shares with borrowed scripts which will be return once the rights are subscribed.
U can see the fairly constant trading spread between the rights and the mother shares.
There are plenty of big bank backed traders that are using their computer trading systems to get this riskless arbitrage.
On ASX, such a phenomenon seldom exists as rights are non renounceable.
Rights trading last day on Thursday.
J C&C steep decline started when rights were first announced and when actual rights trading started, all hell break loose. Trading volume is also extraordinarily high.
Many companies with rights issues have experienced such selloff before.
Basically, its human against computers and in a relentless decline, negative sentiment and hence all sorts of justifications emerges and hence feed through to the vicious cycle.
Don't believe too much in my conspiracy theories. Do check against Astra and JC
&C share price over last 5 yrs via bloomberg.
Trading Vested
GG The rebound don't seem very strong, maybe constrained by the China situation. Hopefully tomorrow will be better 
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