Australia Property

http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-5531-...#pid114677

The above link + the following will help explain why asset prices remain strong for Sydney & Melbourne...

Not different from what land scarce Singapore, HK and even London have experienced...

Home prices ‘low’ for Chinese investors
MICHAEL RODDAN BUSINESS SPECTATOR JUNE 16, 2015 12:41PM
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The Chinese investment wave hasn't crested yet

Home prices in Australia may be unaffordable for first-time buyers, but for Chinese investors Melbourne’s property prices have fallen to multi-year lows thanks to the depreciating Australian dollar.

That’s the opinion of IG chief market strategist Chris Weston, who has looked at the Australian property market through the eyes on an overseas investor.

“We know overseas money has been increasingly making its way into the Australian housing market,” Mr Weston said, with 15 per cent of the national housing supply being purchased by Chinese investors alone in 2014.

While in Melbourne and Sydney, Chinese investors were purchasing around 25 per cent of new housing stock, Mr Weston said.

Credit Suisse has estimated a further $60 billion in Australian real estate purchases by Chinese investors over the coming six years.

Mr Weston said Chinese investors were taking profits from the domestic sharemarkets after a “sensational” move higher, and using those funds to buy property in “tier-one” cities.

China’s stock market value topped $US10 trillion for the first time on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rallying 152 per cent in the past 12 months.

While the Chinese property market has stabilised, Mr Weston said there was also a keen interest in geographical diversification — with the Sydney and Melbourne property markets favoured.

“Chinese investors want returns, and deposits providing even an 8 to 9 per cent yield don’t cut it these days,” he said.

Mr Weston said looking at Sydney house prices in Australian dollar, there was a clear “rampant trend higher” since 2012, supporting the arguments that there was a speculative bubble in the market.

But when those house prices were adjusted into US dollar or Chinese yuan, Mr Weston said the prices don’t look so frothy — thanks to a depreciating Australian dollar, which recently hit 6-year lows against the US currency.

“Looking at Melbourne property prices adjusted for the strength in US dollar or Chinese yuan, one can see that property prices are actually at multi-year lows,” Mr Weston said.

Over the past two years a Chinese investor who purchased a $1 million property in Melbourne would have made around $200,000 on the currency trade, given the depreciation in the Australian dollar against the yuan.

But Mr Weston said there were clearly going to be many gyrations in the currency market, and most people don’t buy a property with a two-year view in mind — especially when the Reserve Bank of Australia comes to raising rates.

The Australian dollar hit its peak of US110c in 2011.

“What percentage of foreign investors are choosing to hedge investments is unclear, but one would suspect it is very low, with only the sophisticated or wealthy looking to do so,” Mr Weston said.

“Still, this is something that should get more focus especially if the Australian dollar really does catch up with the terms of trade.”

Foreign developers rethink plans as costs, red tape bite
FLORENCE CHONG THE AUSTRALIAN JUNE 18, 2015 12:00AM
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Supplied Editorial Bouverie Hero
The old CUB site sold by Chip Eng Seng. Source: Supplied
Tough planning and building codes, together with rising costs, could dash the hopes of foreign developers hoping to establish a foothold in the local market.

Some foreign developers, who have stumped up big sums for sites over the past two years, are believed to be starting to reassess their viability due to regulatory requirements and other issues.

A key executive of one Sydney-based residential development company says market talk is that four Sydney sites are due to come back to market soon. The executive was not prepared to go into detail.

Only one recently purchased foreign-owned development site — the former CUB complex in Swanston Street, on the fringe of Melbourne’s central business district — has been resold.

The sale in March this year ­delivered a capital gain of $33 million for Singapore-based Chip Eng Seng, so it made commercial sense for the developer to book a profit when it could, says an industry observer.

Chip Eng Seng is currently building a 71-storey structure, called Tower Melbourne, in Queen Street. The company bought the CUB site in 2013 for $32m and sold it for $65m after gaining approval from the former Victorian government for a 72-storey residential tower.

Industry observers say Chip Seng Eng’s decision appears at odds with the firm’s stated ­ambition to expand its development operations in Australia, which it targets as its key market alongside Singapore.

But legal action over protection work on property adjoining for the Tower Melbourne development in Queen Street might have dampened its enthusiasm for developing in Australia.

Attempts to reach executives of Chip Eng Seng both in Singapore and Melbourne for comment were unsuccessful. Chip Eng Seng is one of Singapore’s largest and most successful companies, and has been developing in Singapore for several decades.

The chairman of another Singapore-owned company in Australia says that large established Asian groups such as Far East Organisation, Malaysia’s UEM Sunrise or SP Setia or China’s Greenland have the wherewithal to deal with unexpected complications.

Their pockets are deep enough to absorb cost shocks, but he questions the ability of some new foreign developers without a large organisation behind them to withstand unexpected financial risks.

Crucially, he and another veteran Asian developer agree that it is easy to have the mistaken belief that building codes and practices in Australia will be the same as in Singapore or elsewhere in Asia.

Established Asian-based developers are fascinated by grand plans for several mega-towers in Melbourne by two Singapore companies, owned by brothers whose family wealth was born out of jewellery business. If all the projects proceed as planned, they would significantly alter Melbourne’s skyline with their spectacular and futuristic towers.

Separately, Koh Wee Meng, and his younger brother Wee Seng, who run Fragrance Group and Aspial Corporation respectively, propose residential towers of heights and densities unprecedented in Australia.

Aspial Corporation intends setting an Australian record with Australia 108: a 100-storey tower housing more than 1105 apartments in Melbourne. Aspial also plans two other projects: an 82-storey building with 750 apartments at A’Beckett Street and a 634-unit project in King Street. It is unclear whether Aspial will proceed with these before completion of Australia 108.

The older billionaire brother, Wee Meng, has scaled back his original vision for a 90-storey tower on the site of the Savoy Tavern at the corner of Spencer and Bourke streets to 68 storeys — and 400 fewer apartments.

Fragrance is pressing ahead with 555 Collins Street, where it plans a 91-storey tower. It owns other sites in the city.

In a rare interview last year for Forbes Asia, Wee Meng said that, since entering Australia in 2014, he has spent $US156m on sites, all paid for in cash by his Fragrance Group, which is 85 per cent owned by himself and his wife.

Australian developers say offshore developers will have to get used to Australia’s business model, which is very different to Singapore. In Asia and Singapore, developers collect progress payments at various milestones during construction, with the remaining 15 per cent on completion. In other words, buyers largely fund the development and, more importantly, this funding derisks the project. In Australia, the developer collects a 10 per cent deposit, which is held in a trust account until the project is completed.

The apartment boom and weaker dollar have combined to lift labour and component costs. Depending on the state, constructions costs have risen ­sharply in recent months and are poised to get higher as more projects get under way.

Australian high-rise residential developers tend to keep their towers to less than 40 storeys because the construction cost is relatively cheaper and the project will be completed more quickly.

Building costs go up for projects higher than 30-40 floors. The higher you go, the less ­efficient it is as materials have to be hoisted to the upper floors, says Ashley Williams, chief executive of Melbourne’s Evolve Development.

Another developer, Rod Hills, chief executive of Property Development Corporation, says the number of building regulations and the complexity of planning in Australia come as a shock to some offshore developers, used to the efficiency of their home markets. James Sialepsis, Meriton’s ­national sales director, says: “Regulations and red-tape are hard enough for a company like Meriton, and we have an in-house team of engineers and planners.”

Last to join the tightening.

Commonwealth Bank(Aus biggest bank) some changes to all residential loans starting on june 27th with higher serviceability assessment rates across the board:

* all loans will be assessed back up to 7.25% P/I(principal and interest payments.) this effectively negates all the benefit from past few interest rate drops.
* loaded 20% extra repayments on other debts
* reduction on acceptable overtime/allowances etc for salary.
* yield on property capped at 6%
* negative gearing removed from assessment of serviceability

=========================================

Despite high auction clearance rates and many high prices paid, overall in May prices have actually dropped in both Sydney.Melbourne for the first time since last year's boom.

House prices slip in ‘natural correction’

Effect of tightening is starting and will be seen in coming weeks/months as CBA the largest lender is only just implementing this end of June. The two main components that affect investor loan approval are always LVR/LTV and serviceability.

As with all asset bubbles, there must be credit behind fueling the quick rise up, once the credit dries up, prices will go sideways or more commonly drop when the lack of new credit causes a shift in sentiment.

http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-4912-...#pid114678

http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-4912-...#pid114412

http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-4912-...#pid114465

http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-4912-...#pid114553

When property prices are driven by external forces rather than local ones, credit reduction will only serve to slow down the increase not bursting it.

Moreover, Australia is a big country - When prices in Sydney and Melbourne are high, there are always options to move inter-state or to the country / bushes.

In addition, there are many housing options - such as Cabins in caravan parks.

If one still can't afford, there is always the option to rent. Now that investment property supplies have increased, rent affordability has started to improve.

Property is likely to be considered to be a bubble when one has little choices to select any of the above in the Australian context.

Either that or property is considered as a bubble to those who are naked and still wait for a downturn to get into the mkt.

No Vested Interests

(20-06-2015, 12:22 PM)BlueKelah Wrote: Last to join the tightening.

Commonwealth Bank(Aus biggest bank) some changes to all residential loans starting on june 27th with higher serviceability assessment rates across the board:

* all loans will be assessed back up to 7.25% P/I(principal and interest payments.) this effectively negates all the benefit from past few interest rate drops.
* loaded 20% extra repayments on other debts
* reduction on acceptable overtime/allowances etc for salary.
* yield on property capped at 6%
* negative gearing removed from assessment of serviceability

=========================================

Despite high auction clearance rates and many high prices paid, overall in May prices have actually dropped in both Sydney.Melbourne for the first time since last year's boom.

House prices slip in ‘natural correction’

Effect of tightening is starting and will be seen in coming weeks/months as CBA the largest lender is only just implementing this end of June. The two main components that affect investor loan approval are always LVR/LTV and serviceability.

As with all asset bubbles, there must be credit behind fueling the quick rise up, once the credit dries up, prices will go sideways or more commonly drop when the lack of new credit causes a shift in sentiment.

Mon dieu! The Australian housing dream, Chinese-style
THE AUSTRALIAN JUNE 22, 2015 12:00AM

Rowan Callick

Asia Pacific Editor
Melbourne

Li Ming of Aussiehome Real Estate with one of the French provincial-style houses he sold recently in Melbourne’s east that Chinese investors prefer. Picture: Aaron Francis Source: News Corp Australia

It’s the unexpected side-effect of the Chinese love affair with our housing market — a proliferation of faux French-provincial mansions popping up in Australian suburbia.

Li Ming, co-director of Aussiehome Real Estate in Melbourne, reckons he has already sold 20 French provincial-style mansions to Chinese clients, at more than $3 million each, this year alone. He is expecting total sales by the end of this financial year of $250m, with clients of Chinese background accounting for 75 per cent or more.

With foreign-investment rules restricting overseas investors, such as those from China, to buying only new houses or existing houses that must be demolished and rebuilt, one Melbourne architect says the nation is facing “a tsunami” of new investment “utterly changing streetscapes”.

Mr Li recently sold the house pictured above in Balwyn, 10km east of Melbourne’s CBD — in a street where already almost half the old brick homes have been replaced by French provincial-style mansions — for $3.75m.

It has six bedrooms, four bathrooms and two kitchens — many Chinese buyers do their cooking in the “second kitchen” deep inside the house rather than in the open-plan “show” kitchen — and fills almost the entire block.

Such buildings, Mr Li said, “are Chinese people’s dream homes, representing luxury and a romantic and noble lifestyle, and their status in society”.

“They are an outward project­ion of wealth and prosperity,” he said. “Only billionaires could afford­ them back in China, but here they are affordable — just the cost of a couple of apartments in Beijing or Shanghai.”

Alistair Nicholas, a senior advis­er in government relations, public affairs and crisis management at consultancy Weber Shandwick in Sydney and who worked in China for 12 years, told The Australian: “Chinese buying property in Australia are buying more than just the property; they are buying the Australian dream.”

Under Foreign Investment Review­ Board rules, non-resid­ents can buy new properties but those buying existing properties cannot live in their new home but must demolish it and start rebuilding within two years. To do so, they must demonstrate that the existing building has reached the end of its economic life.

Architects in Melbourne told The Australian that making such an assessment was usually straightforward, since kitchens and bathrooms not recently renovated can often be said to require massive, expensive work and justify demolition.

Through some of Australia’s most upmarket suburbs, new mansions, many in the popular French provincial-style, are springing up, usually filling entire blocks and removing gardens.

This is the first clear mark on the landscape of the arrival of this large group of wealthy new Australians. It can be seen in Sydney’s eastern suburbs such as Rose Bay and Bellevue Hill, and the upper-north-shore suburbs of Wahroonga and Turramurra, as well as in Melbourne’s east, from Box Hill through Balywn, Kew, Canterbury and Camberwell.

Mr Li said that in 1949, when the Chinese Communist Party took power, most Chinese lost ownership of their traditional homes and land, and even today can buy only 70-year leases.

“Now, when they come to Australia, properties are very ­attractive because finally they can buy their own land permanently and build their own homes, for themselves and for future generations,” he said. “And Australia is a very attractive place to do so. The property market is secure and solid, and this is a peaceful place where no wars have been fought.”

Mr Li’s firm is opening two new offices in Melbourne, and ­another in Shanghai, the latter chiefly to sell Australian apartments off the plan. His wife, Fiona Shen, has flown to a real estate expo in the northeastern Chinese city of Tianjin, where on Saturday she sold five Melbourne apartments and was closing deals on two more yesterday.

He said that Chinese clients “lack knowledge of Australian history, and don’t feel a connect­ion with older buildings here. They’d rather build a new one for their new life. And feng shui is ­important, including that they’d prefer not to live in a home where someone might have died.”

John Luppino, the director of city planning for Boroondara, Victoria’s wealthiest city, in Melbourne’s leafy eastern suburbs, said that houses in the area ­“reflect the architectural styles of many parts of the world”.

“Neither the Victorian government building regulations nor its residential design code has any controls relating to aesthetics of a dwelling or to vegetation on the site,” he said.

Large canopy trees are protected, however. And new buildings are allowed to occupy only up to 60 per cent of the total area.

So far, 445 demolition approvals have been granted this year, covering about 0.7 per cent of the homes in the city.

Nicholas Day, an architect based in Toorak, said new homes built by Chinese buyers were usually designed to emphasise that they were members of the “establishment”, and thus deferred to ­“established” tastes.

The standard requirements in houses built for Chinese clients tended to be “incredibly consistent”. They usually include a guest bedroom on the ground floor and a grand staircase as a focal point.

“And they want a large house, there’s no such thing as a home too big,” he said. Mr Day said some Chinese clients handed over photos, often of a French provincial house, “and are often very determined to realise it”.

Mr Li said the French provincial style probably got introduced into China in the 1990s. “What they like is the classic European look and feel. Someone sold them on the idea that this represents wealth and position. I would postulate that they think it might even suggest noble lineage, that they are aristocratic in some sense — at least in taste.”

Visa for wealthy investors ‘will stoke luxury market’
SAMANTHA HUTCHINSON THE AUSTRALIAN JUNE 22, 2015 12:00AM

Wealth visa ’to stoke luxury market’
The Mandalay at 87-89 Wolseley Road, Point Piper, NSW Source: Supplied

Inquiries for the country’s most expensive homes could experience a fillip next month when a new visa, chasing wealthy foreigners with a spare $15 million, kicks off.

“Given the opportunity and the size of the investment required, we believe its likely they will be looking at those trophy assets located in Sydney’s eastern suburbs or on the north shore with a harbour view,” Knight Frank residential research analyst Michelle Ciesieleski said.

The Australian government will next month begin issuing invitations to wealthy foreigners as part of its new Premium Investor Visa scheme.

The PIV is more difficult to qualify for than the original Significant Investor Visa. It is accessible by invitation only and requires a $15m investment into designated Australian funds in exchange for the chance to secure permanent residency after just 12 months.

The new scheme will operate alongside the existing Significant Investor Visa program that offers permanent residency after four years of making a $5m investment.

Sydney prestige agent Monika Tu said the new visa could lift inquiries for luxury homes. But she is ambivalent it will reach the same popularity as its more affordable predecessor, the SIV.

“I’m sure it will attract people who are super, super wealthy to come in, but I think the price (of the PIV) is just a bit too much,” Ms Tu said.

Economists claim Australia in midst of largest housing bubble on record

JUNE 23, 2015

AUSTRALIA is in the midst of the “largest housing bubble on record” and when it bursts it will be a “bloodbath”.

This is the assessment of two housing economists who claim Australia is on track for a US and Irish-style collapse because of an oversupply of housing in the country.

In a frank and scathing submission to the upcoming parliamentary inquiry into home ownership which will begin this Friday, Lindsay David and Philip Soos criticise politicians and the housing industry for perpetuating the myth of housing shortages in major capital cities.

They claim there is actually an oversupply of housing, especially in Victoria.
Earlier this month, Treasurer Joe Hockey sparked debate when he denied the existence of a housing bubble, then told those struggling with housing affordability in Sydney to “get a good job that pays good money”.
Mr David and Mr Soos of LF Economics, which made the submission, also take aim at the banking sector and our taxation system, which they say has added to the problem.

They predict the “epicentre” of the collapse will take place in Melbourne where, they say, rents have not increased substantially for the past five years.

They also claim the failure of house prices to increase substantially in WA in recent years will trigger a similar collapse in Perth.

“Melbourne is primed to become the epicentre of a legendary housing market crash due to the combination of a staggering boom in real housing prices (178 per cent),” the submission says. “Perth is also in a serious predicament following price stagnation and substantial net income losses since the market peaked in (the first quarter of 2007). On average, investors purchasing after the peak have lost in terms of both prices and rental income.

“Other capital cities will experience a downturn, though not as large in percentage terms as Melbourne or Perth.”

Mr David and Mr Soos believe the bubble is worse than the bubbles of the 1880s, 1920s, mid-1970s and late 1980s and while they can’t pinpoint what will cause a collapse they are certain it will happen.

“These metrics point to the beginning of the housing boom in 1996 and peaking in 2010, though the latest booms in Sydney and Melbourne could result in posting new peaks in terms of the(price-to-rent) ratio,” they wrote.

“Housing prices across all capital cities remain grossly inflated relative to rents, income, inflation and GDP. What event or set of events triggers the beginning of the end of the housing bubble is not yet known.

“A bloodbath in the housing market, however, appears a near certainty due to the magnitude of falls required for housing prices to again reflect economic fundamentals. The largest residential land market bubble on record is truly incomparable and dwarfs earlier speculative episodes in the commercial and industrial land market.”

Mr David and Mr Soos also say they don’t believe there should be a federal inquiry. They said successive governments had failed to implement any recommendations from previous inquiries and that Australia would be better served by examining ways to reduce the influence of unscrupulous lenders and the rich.

“Property ownership and speculation has been elevated to the status of religion in Australia, compounded by a perverse culture of homeowner entitlement driven by a degenerate taxation system that penalises work and effort while rewarding unearned wealth and income,” they wrote. “This latest housing inquiry is a transparent political ploy to avert implementing a raft of genuine policies that would impinge upon the government-supported ability of the FIRE (finance, insurance and real estate) sector to siphon record-breaking profits from the economy and labour through the extraction of economic rents, primarily usury and land rent,” they wrote.

“The Australian public would be far better served if an alternate inquiry were to be held that investigated ways to democratise the clearly malfunctioning political system, which regressively only assists Australia’s army of private monopolists, usurers, speculators, rent seekers, free riders, financial robber barons, control frauds, inheritors and indolent rich.
“It is high time the nation’s politicians, political parties, public executives, top-level public economists, regulators and bureaucrats have their power over policymaking significantly restricted by and for the benefit of the public and common good.

“It is this self-interest that has helped to perpetuate the largest debt-financed real estate bubble in Australia’s history.”

The duo also claim Australia is now the third most indebted country in the world, relative to GDP, after having passed the Netherlands in 2014.

Denmark is first, while Switzerland is second.

“Given the current boom in Sydney and Melbourne, it is possible Australia will soon exceed Switzerland to become second, and with enough time, perhaps first,” they wrote.

The federal government’s home ownership inquiry begins in Canberra on Friday.

http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-esta...7410053643

So I was wrong it wasn't the chinese... it was the Malaysains bidding up the market!!

(Kidding)

"Fairfax Media can reveal that a group of super-rich Malaysian officials, spending their own government's investment funds, have bid up the price of a Melbourne apartment block from $17.8 million to $22.5 million. The extra $4.75 million was then laundered out of Australia and allegedly paid as bribes in Malaysia."

http://www.smh.com.au/national/corrupt-o...hu5pn.html

So I was wrong it wasn't the chinese... it was the Malaysains bidding up the market!!

(Kidding)

"Fairfax Media can reveal that a group of super-rich Malaysian officials, spending their own government's investment funds, have bid up the price of a Melbourne apartment block from $17.8 million to $22.5 million. The extra $4.75 million was then laundered out of Australia and allegedly paid as bribes in Malaysia."

http://www.smh.com.au/national/corrupt-o...hu5pn.html

House price rises fuel bubble fears
AAP JUNE 23, 2015 3:29PM

Australia's two speed housing market pushes higher
Auctioneers at a recent auction in Melbourne’s Balaclava.Auctioneers at a recent auction in Melbourne’s Balaclava. Source: News Corp Australia

The housing market is becoming more like a one-horse race, with prices rising in Sydney almost three times faster than the next best city, Melbourne.

The harbour city has enjoyed double digit home price growth for a year and a half, but in the other major capitals annual rises have slowed by more than half.

Sydney dwelling prices rises were up 13.1 per cent in the 12 months to March, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows.

The next best was Melbourne with an annual rise of 4.7 per cent, much slower than the 9.8 per cent recorded at the same time last year.

JP Morgan economist Ben Jarman said the gap in annual price growth between Sydney and the rest of the country is at its widest in 10 years.

“Sydney is booming, while outcomes elsewhere are much more subdued, generally running in low single digit annual growth rates in the rest of the country,” he said.

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“This has made life difficult for the Reserve Bank, forcing regulators down the path of enhancing macro-prudential oversight of mortgage lending in the Sydney market.”

The strength in Sydney and Melbourne offset weakness elsewhere, with residential property prices across the nation’s eight capital cities up 6.9 per cent for the year to March.

However the result represented a slowdown from the 10.8 per cent growth recorded 12 months earlier.

“Sydney’s strength is proving insufficient to hold up slippage elsewhere,” Mr Jarman said.

“We have been flagging this likelihood since the annual housing sales turnover data peaked early last year.”

The ABS figures show that when comparing Sydney to the rest of the nation detached house price growth is faster that that for higher density dwellings.

Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens recently described Sydney house prices as “crazy”, while Treasury secretary John Fraser believes the city is “unequivocally” in a house price bubble.

Consulting firm LF Economics is now warning that a “bloodbath” in the housing market appears a near certainty when the property bubble bursts and prices start falling.

In a submission to a federal parliament inquiry into home ownership, the consultancy said the magnitude of falls required for prices to again reflect economic fundamentals were large.

“Policymakers are caught between a rock and a hard place, as implementing needed reforms will likely burst the bubble, causing severe financial and economic fallout,” it said.

Meanwhile, Mr Jarman said the more robust housing data, along with the more stable looking jobs market, made further interest rate cuts from the RBA less likely.

Meanwhile, for many Australians, the dream of home ownership is fading.

A Nielsen survey for Domain.com.au has found 51 per cent of NSW residents and 52 per cent of Victorian residents feel owning their own home is no longer attainable. The most disillusioned are Northern Territory residents, with 62 per cent stating home ownership is out of their reach.

In Western Australia, 49 per cent believed home ownership is unattainable, followed by 47 per cent in Queensland, 46 per cent in South Australia and 44 per cent in the Australian Capital Territory.

However, more Tasmanians are living the dream, with only 38 per cent believing home ownership is out of their reach.

CAPITAL CITY HOME PRICES IN 12 MONTHS TO MARCH:

* Sydney — up 13.1pc, median price $786,000

* Melbourne — up 4.7pc, median $527,500

* Brisbane — up 3.9pc, median $480,000

* Canberra — up 3.0pc, median $580,000

* Adelaide — up 2.5pc, median $420,000

* Hobart — up 1.9pc, median $353,000

* Perth — down 0.3pc, median $545,000

* Darwin — down 0.4pc, median $572,500

AAP