Bloomberg: U.S. Dot-Com Bubble Was Nothing Compared to Today’s China Prices

While fears remain that China is swapping a housing bubble for a stock market bubble, there remains no shortage of enthusiasm among retail investors. "This boom has been created, led and guided by the government so it is unstoppable," said Zhang Qinghai, a retired tour guide and close follower of the market.

The doubling of the Shanghai Composite since October has delivered a huge wealth effect to investors across China and is driving consumer spending on everything from overseas travel to new cars.

Shanghai sharemarket surges ahead
Angus Grigg
588 words
6 Jun 2015
The Australian Financial Review
AFNR
English
Copyright 2015. Fairfax Media Management Pty Limited.
Shanghai | The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 5000 points for the first time in seven years, a milestone that came just days before a much-anticipated decision on whether Chinese domestic shares will be included in a key global markets index.

Shanghai's main share index has rallied 55 per cent so far this year, on record trading volumes. After rising above the psychologically important 5000 barrier at the market's open on Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 5023.10, up 1.54 per cent.

The stockmarket has been hit by volatile trading over the past few weeks amid concerns about margin lending growth and speculation about whether the latest bull-run can keep going.

Global index giant MSCI will decide on Tuesday after the markets close in the US whether to include China's domestic equities or A-shares in its global emerging markets index.

Any change favouring the inclusion of Chinese shares would provide another driver for the market, which has had an impressive run in recent months as retail investors piled into equities. Still, many analysts believe the MSCI will delay inclusion until later in the year, which could be viewed as a setback for Chinese policymakers looking to open up China's capital markets and internationalise the yuan.

Daily turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges has doubled in less than six months, surpassing two trillion yuan ($400 billion) for the first time during trade last Monday. These levels were maintained for most of last week.

This is up from daily turnover of one trillion yuan on December 5 and equates to 150 million yuan being traded every second.

The surge in volumes has seen the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges overtake their counterparts in the United States and claim the title as the world's most traded markets.

The value of stocks traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen is now seven times greater than the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Exchange.

While fears remain that China is swapping a housing bubble for a stock market bubble, there remains no shortage of enthusiasm among retail investors. "This boom has been created, led and guided by the government so it is unstoppable," said Zhang Qinghai, a retired tour guide and close follower of the market.

The doubling of the Shanghai Composite since October has delivered a huge wealth effect to investors across China and is driving consumer spending on everything from overseas travel to new cars.

It is estimated Shanghai investors have benefited most from the boom, generating average profits this year of 156,000 yuan, says financial information provider Tong Hua Shun.

This is nearly three times the average annual wage for residents of China's commercial capital. The boom has also seen a record number of new mutual funds being launched.

Since the start of the year 297 mutual funds have been established raising 704 billion yuan ($140 billion). This is more than all the money raised by mutual funds last year.

And the new listings market is also booming. Over the past few weeks, trading on the Shanghai market has been volatile, with some analysts predicting the market may be on the verge off a correction. But the market rallied again this week to break through 5000.

There are concerns about the level of margin lending, which is now close to 3.5 per cent of GDP.

Speculation new regulations will be introduced to curb margin lending has contributed to the market volatility.


Fairfax Media Management Pty Limited

Document AFNR000020150605eb660001d

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/324f20b4-095a-...abdc0.html

SMART MONEY June 3, 2015 9:24 am
Waiting for smoke on MSCI China A shares
John Authers


Restrictions on trade and weightings must be considered carefully
MSCI website logo

It is not quite like waiting for white smoke over the Vatican but, for anyone investing in emerging markets, it comes close. Next Tuesday, we will find out the results of the latest reshuffle of the MSCI Emerging Markets index and so will know whether Chinese A-shares have been added.
This does not sound like a momentous event. MSCI, like other index providers, aims merely to reflect the markets it benchmarks, not lead them. And China’s domestic stock market is already enormous — this year, its stock index futures overtook S&P 500 futures to become the most heavily traded on the planet.
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But it matters hugely because China places heavy restrictions on external investment, which it is only gradually opening, and because MSCI’s EM index is hegemonic among all those managing emerging markets money. Either via direct indexing or the indirect but potent influence of benchmarking active managers, any decision to open to A-shares would spark an influx of foreign money into China.
That could have profound consequences after domestic Chinese indices have already gained about 150 per cent in a year. Some unquantifiable part of what is an almost entirely speculative phenomenon may well represent bets that foreign funds will soon have to buy A-shares, but it is likely that any opening by MSCI will add fuel to the speculative fire.
MSCI’s methodology is public and transparent, but still leaves room for judgment and discretion, and often generates controversies — perhaps most importantly, many perennially disagree with its classification of South Korea and Taiwan as still “emerging”.
Thankfully MSCI is aware of the power it has come to wield, and has gone to great lengths to handle this situation with care. If A-shares are admitted, they will be weighted according to 5 per cent of their total market value. Thus China’s total weighting within EM will be 100 per cent of H-shares (quoted in Hong Kong) plus 5 per cent of A-shares.
That will mean adding 250 to 280 stocks quoted on the mainland, and will bring the total Chinese allocation within MSCI EM to just under 30 per cent. (It now stands at 25.26 per cent, but much of this rise will be driven by the strong rise of Chinese stocks compared with other emerging markets over the past 12 months).
But A-shares on their own will be only about 1.2 per cent of the EM index — the current weighting of the Philippines — rather than the huge 24 per cent they would assume if added to the index in full.

Even on this featherbedded basis, MSCI’s move combined with the Chinese bull market of the past 12 months and the glut of initial public offerings it has allowed, would jointly mean that funds benchmarked to the MSCI would be expected to put about 66 per cent more of any new money into China than they would have done a year ago (when China’s weight in the MSCI EM index was 18.3 per cent).
According to Sebastien Lieblich, MSCI’s executive director, the decision on adding any market to the index is based on two factors — its breadth and depth, and its accessibility. The A-shares market is very deep, so the critical question is whether it is now accessible enough to external investors.
Events of the past few months have sharply raised the chances that A-shares will pass this test. Positive developments listed by Mr Lieblich include the development of the Shanghai Stock Connect system, clarification of capital gains tax, the award of additional quotas for qualified foreign investors, along with the award of larger quotas to some foreigners.
From now on, MSCI says it will expand A-shares’ weighting in line with improvements in accessibility. If Chinese authorities abandoned all restrictions on foreign investors this year, Mr Lieblich says it could theoretically move to a 100 per cent weighting in short order — or it could take decades if China moves slowly.

More video
Objectively, the chances are strong that A-shares will join the index this year. Such a move would make sense. It recognises reality. And it is hard to see how MSCI could manage the transition more responsibly.
But the fact that it needs to tread with this care should give everyone pause. Benchmarking in most businesses makes sense. But in investment, it prompts investors to outsource their judgment to a few indexers that have become the world’s stockpickers of last resort. Thankfully, they are making their decisions more transparently than a papal conclave.
john.authers@ft.com

Well, I guess we all hope it's not smoke and mirrors for China's market.

But history has a funny way of repeating itself, and we've all seen how speculative excesses end; and it's never pretty.....

Its taking some time, but looking more and more like a repeat of Japan crash version 2.0 every passsing day.

Musicwhiz u were around for that rite? My earliest memories are of the AFC

sent from my Galaxy Tab S

(08-06-2015, 09:43 AM)BlueKelah Wrote: Its taking some time, but looking more and more like a repeat of Japan crash version 2.0 every passsing day.

Musicwhiz u were around for that rite? My earliest memories are of the AFC

sent from my Galaxy Tab S

Nope, I am still considered a "newbie" when it comes to market cycles and crashes. I've only been though the GFC of 2008-2009. Missed the SARS and dot.com crashes and the entire AFC too.....

But it's important that we learn what we can from whatever we have experienced.

(08-06-2015, 07:29 PM)Musicwhiz Wrote:

(08-06-2015, 09:43 AM)BlueKelah Wrote: Its taking some time, but looking more and more like a repeat of Japan crash version 2.0 every passsing day.

Musicwhiz u were around for that rite? My earliest memories are of the AFC

sent from my Galaxy Tab S

Nope, I am still considered a "newbie" when it comes to market cycles and crashes. I've only been though the GFC of 2008-2009. Missed the SARS and dot.com crashes and the entire AFC too.....

But it's important that we learn what we can from whatever we have experienced.

There is no doubt that there is a bubble. However, given that China remains largely a centrally planned economy, has anyone thought of why someone at the top is allowing the bubble notwithstanding the obvious problems (such as property glut, high debt problems facing the SOEs and local govts)?

Does anyone thinks that the mainlanders are a stupid reckless bunch of people?

I personally think that there is a lot more to the ongoing episode. At least the messes are happy... Eventually, someone will pay for the bubble but I am quite certain that it will unlikely to be the messes as hungry people are angry people and in China's modern communist system, that can be a dangerous scenario...

GG's conspiracy

Basically means that Chings bubble blowing process to force hand on foreigners will have to continue till it is being recognised...

China need foreign $, foreigners careful... gameon... bubble will grow even bigger and all signs point to 2016/17 - the ultimate storm

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102745429

MSCI expects to include China A shares in global benchmarks
Evelyn Cheng | @chengevelyn
3 Hours Ago
CNBC.com


MSCI said on Tuesday it expects to include China A shares in its emerging markets index after several issues are resolved.
()
The firm said it may announce the decision outside of its annual review, which usually occurs in June.

The issues highlighted included quota allocation process, capital mobility restrictions and beneficial ownership of investments.
Investors told MSCI they need the ability to invest in China relative to the value of their assets under management, the release said. Daily liquidity is also critical for fund management, investors said.

An important factor for building confidence in Chinese markets is clarity on corporate ownership, MSCI said in the release.

Clem Miller, investment analyst at Wilmington Trust Advisors, said China may take until early 2016 to resolve the issues and that the first two are the most challenging. "China has been moving in the correct direction," he said. But "they would have to remove almost all its controls to achieve them."

The Deutsche X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) fell as much as 1.25 percent in after-hours trade, following a 1.9 percent decline during Tuesday's session.
Another related ETF , iShares' EEM tracks the MSCI emerging market index and gained 0.3 percent in after-hours trade, reversing a 0.6 percent decline on Tuesday.

Analysts expect a slight disappointment in mainland stock performance on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges on Wednesday.

"I think the A shares could take a pause. They're kind of due for a correction. That doesn't mean they'll fall apart," said Michelle Gibley, director of international research at Charles Schwab.

She and other analysts said in a market driven more by retail than institutional investors, Chinese traders probably did not position too much for an international announcement like the MSCI decision.

"The market in the short-term here is going to be more focused on domestic issues in the economy and the margin usage," said Nick Kalivas, senior equity product strategist at Invesco PowerShares.

He said with MSCI's methodical progress in moving towards A share inclusion, "you're going to see foreign investors position themselves with how China is weighted," Kalivas said. He does not expect immediate adjustment in the allocations for PowerShares' ETFs.

MSCI also said that it will include the MSCI Pakistan Index in its 2016 annual review for a potential reclassification to emerging markets.

Index giant MSCI was scheduled to announce around 5:00 p.m., ET, its decision on whether Chinese A-shares will be included in its $4 trillion emerging market index.

Read MoreThis could open the door to China's hot market
Emerging market money managers try to match or beat the 27-year-old index. About $1.5 trillion in mutual funds, ETFs and other funds are benchmarked to the emerging market index, MSCI said.

MSCI's emerging market index currently has a 25 percent exposure to China through Hong Kong-listed stocks, known as H-shares. However, the bulk of China's recent rally so far this year occurred in the mainland Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, up more than 50 and 100 percent for 2015, respectively.

Read MorePisani: Get ready to own more of China
In a weekend note, Deutsche Bank said that "inclusion of China A shares in MSCI or other major benchmarks could provide support for the market going forward."

The report noted that when MSCI announced in June 2013 it would include Qatar and the United Arab Emirates in its emerging market index and added the stocks the following year, the country-specific indices outperformed.


Still, a decision in favor of A-share inclusion wouldn't result in their addition to the benchmark emerging market index until next year. Full inclusion is expected to boost the index's exposure to China to 37.5 percent.
Last year, MSCI decided against including mainland stocks in its emerging market index due to restrictions on foreign investment in Chinese markets. Since then, China has taken many steps to open up its capital markets, such as the the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, which gives foreign investors access to A-shares through Hong Kong's exchange.


Evelyn Cheng

Must Read... very interesting article just that they got their dates wrong shld be 9 June...

China share market’s moment is now
STIRLING LARKIN THE AUSTRALIAN JUNE 13, 2015 12:00AM


China’s shift towards global economic integration will give astute investors a once-in-a-quarter-century opportunity. Source: AP

The Chinese CSI 300 — the ­nation’s leading sharemarket index that is a composite of the Shanghai and Shenzen exchanges — has the real possibility of ­tripling or even quadrupling from current market valuations by or near 2020.

On May 9, the Morgan Stanley Composite Index (MSCI), argu­ably the world’s most important global shares benchmark, announced “China’s A-shares (are) on track for inclusion”.

The announcement was greeted by many commentators as a negative.

It is, in fact, a positive, as it presents another huge and ­particularly timely opportunity for Australian investors to tactically position into a market with huge potential.

The delay of China’s A-shares inclusion into specifically the MSCI Emerging Market, China and World Indices provides Australian wholesale investors another chance to astutely front-run the predictable eventuality that the Shanghai-Shenzhen CSI 300 will be represented throughout these important global benchmarks one day very soon.

MSCI indices matter — a lot.

This is because, as of June 30, 2014, they have $US9.5 trillion ($12.3 trillion) in known assets benchmarked against them.

Australian ultra high net worth global investors have been advised — at least by us — that this is the moment to take ­action and do so with conviction.

More than simply ringing the bell, this is a once-in-a-quarter-century opportunity that won’t be repeated, at least not during this contributor’s professional ­lifetime.

Stripping out the geopolitics and stereotypical noise surrounding China’s ascent, such a step-change is plausible and makes a lot of sense when explained in the following light. The Chinese Communist Party’s state-led model ­allowed its population to invest in real estate so China could ­continue its progression from ­developing to developed economic status over the past 15 years.

The excesses seen within what we refer to as shadow banking — off-balance sheet non-bank lending — were permitted, primarily because this allowed a circuit breaker when domestic Chinese real estate investment overheated.

The CCP has now consciously opened a new gate for its citizenry to invest more easily — contrary to their own rhetoric — into the CSI 300 and other Chinese sharemarkets for two primary reasons.

The first is that China now wants advanced capital market ­architectures, just like we have in the OECD; and second — and more interestingly — it purposely wants to inflate its bourses, with very specific outcomes in mind for 2017, 2018 and beyond.

These forethought outcomes involve China’s CSI 300, in the near future, joining the MSCI World indices, where, as discussed, they are not currently represented.

Until very recently, piercing the walls of these “iron curtain” capital controls has been near ­impossible — or at least not legal.

While the May 9 announcement explicitly said MSCI and the China Securities Regulatory Commission would form a working group to resolve “a few important remaining issues related to market accessibility”, it is likely the CSRC, on direct instructions from the CCP, and more importantly President Xi Jinping, will not budge on these iron curtain controls until the following occurs.

What the CCP wants is an ­inflation of its sharemarkets’ valuations. Only when this has happened, it would be fair to predict, would they then have plans to loosen these capital controls and progressively allow more foreign institutional investors to enter the mainland bourses. When this ­happens, CSI 300 prices will be far higher than they are now and these foreign institutional investors will be purchasing Chinese shares with fresh foreign capital, namely US dollars.

This is why now is a crucially important time for Australian ­global investors to pay particular attention to China and global ­affairs.

Remembering that these Chinese bourses aren’t yet in MSCI World indices, when they achieve IMF “Special Drawing Rights” status sometime soon — which they will — it will further allow the convertibility of yuan to US ­dollars, even more foreign ­institutional capital will, by forced mandate, be directed towards the CSI 300.

The logic for this is simple. When China’s bourses are then included in the MSCI World Index or any similar benchmark, then a plethora of global institutional passive investment managers, by mandate, must then purchase CSI 300 exposures, solely to satisfy their prescriptive portfolio guidelines.

The CCP knows this and is making every effort now to stoke bourses such as the CSI 300 to much higher levels.

Put simply, the delays will ­dissipate when the CCP and Xi ­believe the CSI 300 is at valuation levels they are comfortable with.

Coincidentally, it is the CCP ­itself, which as a significant stakeholder in a majority of state- owned enterprises stands to ­benefit when such new price levels are reached.

This is not a conspiracy, this is capitalism in practice — the US invented shadow banking and spent the past six years inflating their own bourses. Then the British, Swiss, Japanese and now the eurozone have followed suit.

Clearly short-term trading on the CSI 300 is like riding a wild tiger and at Larkin Group we have people watching this Chinese market on a full-time basis.

This is a truly exciting time for Australian UHNW investors, and rather than licking our wounds about former iron ore export levels, let us look forward towards 2020 and what could very likely be a golden, not iron, opportunity.

Separately, Australian SMSF investors should consider passive five-year “Rip Van Winkle” opportunities.

Waking up in 2020 to a CSI 300 index exposure priced quite differently than it is at present, could be a shrewder alternative than doubling down on currently rudderless ASX investments.

Larkin Group is a wholesale wealth adviser focusing on high-yielding global investments.

www.larkingroup.com.au

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...ill-tumble

June 17, 2015 — 12:22 AM SGT Updated on June 17, 2015 — 4:28 PM SGT

China Liquidity Pushes Stock Market Bubble: David Woo
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The China-Pakistan Fighter Jet Built on the Cheap
It’s no longer a question of whether China’s stock-market rally is a bubble, but when the bubble will burst.
That’s the refrain from a growing number of analysts as valuations climb to levels that by some measures already exceed the peak of China’s last equity mania in 2007.
A market crash may come within six months, Bocom International Holdings Co. said Tuesday, citing an analysis of global bubbles over 800 years that shows the speed of gains in China mirroring past market peaks. Macquarie Investment Management, whose Asian stock fund is outperforming 97 percent of peers in 2015, has already eliminated exposure to mainland shares after turning bearish for the first time in seven years. The government may engineer a correction if valuations rise much further, according to CLSA Ltd.
“We are probably going to be in a very volatile trading period before a crash eventually happens,” Hao Hong, the chief China strategist at Bocom International in Hong Kong, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “It is plain that China is in a bubble.”
Fueled by record margin debt and unprecedented numbers of novice investors, China’s market capitalization has tripled in the past year to $9.8 trillion. At 84 times projected earnings, the average stock on mainland exchanges is now almost twice as expensive as it was when the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index peaked in October 2007.
Greater Fool
In a sign of how quickly investor sentiment can shift, the Shanghai gauge has tumbled 5.4 percent over the past two days, after closing at a seven-year high on June 12. The index rallied 1.65 percent on Wednesday, bringing its 12-month gain to 140 percent.
The combination of surging turnover and rapid price gains in China’s yuan-denominated A shares suggests a market peak is near as traders continuously test whether “the greater fool” will step in to buy, Hong said. He estimates the Shanghai Composite could climb as high as 6,100, versus Wednesday’s close of 4,967.9, before turning lower.
The 20-day average value of shares changing hands on mainland exchanges has jumped to about $314 billion, versus $244 billion on bourses in the U.S., which has a market capitalization more than twice the size, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“If you look at the A-share market, it’s becoming very speculative,” Sam Le Cornu, who oversees about $3 billion in Asian equities at Macquarie in Hong Kong, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Tuesday. “That’s the root cause of the concern when you have bubbles.”
Too Pessimistic
While some parts of the Chinese market are overextended, valuations on the whole aren’t high enough to warrant a crash, according to Miranda Carr, the head of China thematic research at Espirito Santo Investment Bank.
The Shanghai Composite, which has about half its weighting in financial and industrial companies, is valued at 18 times projected earnings. That compares with 65 times for the nation’s ChiNext gauge, which is dominated by technology shares.
“The idea that this is going to suddenly peak and burst, and you’re going to have this sort of cataclysmic crash, and it’s all going to be over -- that’s way too pessimistic,” Carr said in an interview on Bloomberg Television in London. “What you’re going to see is a correction in some of the really highly-valued areas.”
Bubble Signs
Chinese policy makers view a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 20 as a signal of over-valuation for the broader market, Francis Cheung, a strategist at CLSA in Hong Kong, wrote in a June 12 report titled “Bubble trouble.” If shares keep rising, the government will probably introduce a stamp duty on stock purchases, Cheung wrote.
For Pau Morilla-Giner, the chief investment officer at London & Capital Group Ltd., mainland markets have become too speculative for international money managers to take part. Swings in the Shanghai gauge over the past 30 days are bigger than every other market worldwide except Greece, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“It smells like a bubble, it looks like a bubble, and it walks like a bubble,” Morilla-Giner said in an interview on Bloomberg Television in London. “Steer clear, that is the trade.”

Global equities market is moving towards China
Date
June 18, 2015 - 3:52PM

Stephen Cauchi

By 2025, Credit Suisse says, China's weight in Asian shares will rise from 8 per cent now to 35 per cent.

The world's centre of gravity for global equity markets is migrating east to China, according to Credit Suisse – and as Australia's equity weight falls, $140 billion could be allocated away from Australia by global investors.

On the upside, the lost global demand for Australian equities will be replaced by new Chinese demand.

Specific local winners listed in the paper include ANZ, Computershare, Macquarie Group and Platinum Asset Management.

Earlier this month, Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) failed to include Chinese A-shares – those listed on the Chinese mainland instead of in Hong Kong – on the MSCI emerging markets index.

However, the research note from Credit Suisse – entitled "The giant on our doorstep" – argued the MSCI listing of Chinese A-shares was only a matter of time. With it, China's global sharemarket weight would rise dramatically.

"China currently has a 1 per cent weight in broad global equity indices," Credit Suisse said. "But by 2025 we forecast China's weight to rise to 9 per cent. It will be the second-biggest equity market in the world."



Currently the market capitalisation weighted geographic centre of sharemarkets around the world is in Iraq, Credit Suisse said.

In 1975, it was 400 kilometres off the coast of New York, in 1990 it was in the middle of the North Atlantic Ocean, and now it is 200 kilometres north of Baghdad, the research said.

"Our expectation of [China's] A-shares inclusion will help propel the centre of gravity further east to the middle of Afghanistan by 2025."

By 2025, said Credit Suisse, China's weight in Asian shares (excluding Japan) will rise from 8 per cent now to 35 per cent.

"This will dramatically lower Australia's weight from 18 per cent to 9 per cent over the same period. Australia will become as important in Asia (excluding Japan) as Singapore is now, or as Spain is currently in Europe.

"While the Asian pond will expand considerably over the next 10 years, Australia will be a smaller fish within it."

There are downsides and upsides to this, Credit Suisse said.



On the downside, as Australia's equity weight falls, $140 billion could be allocated away from Australia – equivalent to 10 per cent of current Australian market capitalisation. International ownership of the Australian market would then fall to around 20 per cent.

On the upside, the lost global demand for Australian equities will be replaced by new Chinese demand, Credit Suisse said.

"As capital flows are liberalised in China we should expect some of the reported $20 trillion in domestic savings to flow into Aussie assets like equities. Australia is currently benefiting from strong Chinese capital flows into our residential property market; our equity market could be about to experience the equivalent."

Companies with exposure to the Chinese equity market will benefit, Credit Suisse said. The paper listed ANZ, Computershare, Macquarie Group and Platinum Asset Management as examples.

Credit Suisse's paper comes after a speech earlier in the week from Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor Guy Debelle, which called on Australians to look to Asia for investment.

Mr Debelle said there was "significant scope" for Australian banks, asset managers and their clients to increase their exposure to the Chinese domestic financial market.