Chip Eng Seng

Results very bad -15.6
Come monday , what will happen?

(09-05-2015, 08:08 AM)westin1 Wrote: Results very bad -15.6
Come monday , what will happen?

I am not sure that -15.6% is "very bad."

For a company whose accounting is based on TOP of projects,

profits can be a little patchy.

What is important from my point of view is "what will the NAV

be at the end of the year".

Asa value investor, I am looking at a longer term view and can ride

some "patchiness" in profit reporting.

Just my opinion.

(30-04-2015, 09:45 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: Moderator Log:

I have removed few posts, which served only a purpose of fight-seeking. It wasted our buddies time, not only for posters, but also readers, including the moderators.

I will continue to monitor this thread. I am afraid that warnings might be required if situation persisted.

We welcome insight, update, opinion/view on a stock, not a price forecaster and fight-seeker.

Regards
Moderator

(08-05-2015, 10:45 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: What is the natural floor for CES? If we assume 4 cents dividend is sustainable, is 80 cents the natural floor?

One ought to remember that CES has bought back millions and millions of shares from below 80 cents all the way to 92* cents.


*During the CD period, CES bought ~ 5mil shares at 97-98 cents (equivalent to XD 91-92 cent)

(08-05-2015, 09:55 PM)roxhockey Wrote: If your company has:
Improving fundamentals
Consistently returning capital (via dividends or buybacks)
Then I feel its not that hard to hold through price fluctuations.

If you pick a company like that then its actually hard for the stock price to fall and remain low because there's a natural floor under the price. E.g. if a company has a sustainable dividend yield of 7% and it falls by half, the yield would be 14% - its not going to stay there for long...

4 percent divident yield sounds interesting if it does hit 80 cts. The outlook is surely challenging n the management admitted that it is the case for this yr. It the same all or most property counters.

I have divested some after xd. Reentering later. More so to wait out the harsh year and plough back funds in other more interesting near term stocks. Assuming all else constant, its still a good company to invest in for longer term especially with their goal of building more constant income streams. Chairman mr lim was saying this irc. Earnings will be more stable then.

Vested but reduced quantity.

The property outlook in Singapore is not overly favourable, which will mean CES will not invest as much in land bank, buying buildings etc. I expect them to use those funds to instead buy back shares...

Company share buy back reference...

(09-05-2015, 03:55 PM)roxhockey Wrote: The property outlook in Singapore is not overly favourable, which will mean CES will not invest as much in land bank, buying buildings etc. I expect them to use those funds to instead buy back shares...

PTB is 0.71 or 29% discount.

With 4c the dividend is 4.7%.

I think this is appealing to long term investors.

(Vested)

(09-05-2015, 02:35 PM)vesfreq Wrote:

(30-04-2015, 09:45 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: Moderator Log:

I have removed few posts, which served only a purpose of fight-seeking. It wasted our buddies time, not only for posters, but also readers, including the moderators.

I will continue to monitor this thread. I am afraid that warnings might be required if situation persisted.

We welcome insight, update, opinion/view on a stock, not a price forecaster and fight-seeker.

Regards
Moderator

(08-05-2015, 10:45 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: What is the natural floor for CES? If we assume 4 cents dividend is sustainable, is 80 cents the natural floor?

One ought to remember that CES has bought back millions and millions of shares from below 80 cents all the way to 92* cents.


*During the CD period, CES bought ~ 5mil shares at 97-98 cents (equivalent to XD 91-92 cent)

(08-05-2015, 09:55 PM)roxhockey Wrote: If your company has:
Improving fundamentals
Consistently returning capital (via dividends or buybacks)
Then I feel its not that hard to hold through price fluctuations.

If you pick a company like that then its actually hard for the stock price to fall and remain low because there's a natural floor under the price. E.g. if a company has a sustainable dividend yield of 7% and it falls by half, the yield would be 14% - its not going to stay there for long...

4 percent divident yield sounds interesting if it does hit 80 cts. The outlook is surely challenging n the management admitted that it is the case for this yr. It the same all or most property counters.

I have divested some after xd. Reentering later. More so to wait out the harsh year and plough back funds in other more interesting near term stocks. Assuming all else constant, its still a good company to invest in for longer term especially with their goal of building more constant income streams. Chairman mr lim was saying this irc. Earnings will be more stable then.

Vested but reduced quantity.

I concur with Curiousparty's estimate of the NAV, but my estimate EPS is a tad lower at around 16 cents for the year. In any case, this counter was a steal when I first bought it at around 40 cents in 2010, and it's still a steal today at current prices. Added more to my position in the past few days.

(08-05-2015, 12:06 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: technical chart does not look good, but fundamental value remains the same.
My prelim forecast for 2015 still remains:-

1. EPS ~ 20 cents
2. NAV (year end) ~ $1.60 (including hotel revaluation gain and after deducting off 6 cents dividends)

Thanks Ray168..I think this is a great chart.
Based on historical PTB trend, another 10% price pullback will be a great entry for CES.
Isn't it better to use a lower RNAV to increase MOS rather than guesstimate at $1.60 as grandma likes to do?

(09-05-2015, 04:39 PM)Ray168 Wrote: PTB is 0.71 or 29% discount.

With 4c the dividend is 4.7%.

I think this is appealing to long term investors.

(Vested)

(09-05-2015, 02:35 PM)vesfreq Wrote:

(30-04-2015, 09:45 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: Moderator Log:

I have removed few posts, which served only a purpose of fight-seeking. It wasted our buddies time, not only for posters, but also readers, including the moderators.

I will continue to monitor this thread. I am afraid that warnings might be required if situation persisted.

We welcome insight, update, opinion/view on a stock, not a price forecaster and fight-seeker.

Regards
Moderator

(08-05-2015, 10:45 PM)Curiousparty Wrote: What is the natural floor for CES? If we assume 4 cents dividend is sustainable, is 80 cents the natural floor?

One ought to remember that CES has bought back millions and millions of shares from below 80 cents all the way to 92* cents.


*During the CD period, CES bought ~ 5mil shares at 97-98 cents (equivalent to XD 91-92 cent)

(08-05-2015, 09:55 PM)roxhockey Wrote: If your company has:
Improving fundamentals
Consistently returning capital (via dividends or buybacks)
Then I feel its not that hard to hold through price fluctuations.

If you pick a company like that then its actually hard for the stock price to fall and remain low because there's a natural floor under the price. E.g. if a company has a sustainable dividend yield of 7% and it falls by half, the yield would be 14% - its not going to stay there for long...

4 percent divident yield sounds interesting if it does hit 80 cts. The outlook is surely challenging n the management admitted that it is the case for this yr. It the same all or most property counters.

I have divested some after xd. Reentering later. More so to wait out the harsh year and plough back funds in other more interesting near term stocks. Assuming all else constant, its still a good company to invest in for longer term especially with their goal of building more constant income streams. Chairman mr lim was saying this irc. Earnings will be more stable then.

Vested but reduced quantity.

Based on 2014 Annual report, only 42% of COGS have been recognized to date for Junction 9/Nine Residence. Hence, 58% of profit for this project should be reflected in 2015 if CES manages to complete this project in time in Q4 2015.

My estimated total for J9/Nine Residence is ~21 cents. This implies that the remaining 12 cents ought to be recognized in 2015.

- Construction income for 2015 ~ 4.5 cents.
- investment properties ~ 1.5 cents.
- Fulcrum (big question mark???) ~ 3 cents.

Total estimated EPS for 2015 = ~ 21 cents.
Hotel revaluation surplus = ~30 cents

Hence, NAV by end of 2015 (i.e. Dec 2015) = ~ $1.60.
($1.60 is not RNAV but NAV)

Based on current portfolio of ongoing and pipeline project (e.g. TM, Fernvale, Fulcrum, Doncaster, Perth, investment properties, construction income) RNAV > ~$2.0

The NAV shown is actual NAV per AR report.

CP estimated FY2015 NAV to be $1.60. If this is true, then the discount (forward discount) will be 47%.

Well, for sure the 4c dividend will be paid in FY15, so why not get paid while waiting?

(09-05-2015, 07:03 PM)mslee888 Wrote: Thanks Ray168..I think this is a great chart.
Based on historical PTB trend, another 10% price pullback will be a great entry for CES.
Isn't it better to use a lower RNAV to increase MOS rather than guesstimate at $1.60 as grandma likes to do?

(09-05-2015, 04:39 PM)Ray168 Wrote: PTB is 0.71 or 29% discount.

With 4c the dividend is 4.7%.

I think this is appealing to long term investors.

(Vested)