Oil Prices

(30-04-2015, 04:13 PM)Petertan Wrote: The more you try to understand , the more blurr you become. Honestly, I don't understand oil at all, but I also don't understand why people are still instead on been bearish on oil when the price heading up is telling a different story. So either market or they are wrong.

Follow the trend, the trend is your friend. But no matter what, the price is heading higher. Currently, we are just inches from $60..as of now it is 59.33.( i think this year high)

The news we read from CNBC, and marketwatch could be history ( already happen) by the time we read it. So it is actually the past. What is more important is market is anticipating the future demand. And I think market is bullish on this demand.

Nice to know that someone in a value forum made handsome profit without knowing what is happening

Like I told YewKim it is not that we don't understand what you guys are saying; the unfortunate and painful truth is however that we had been through it and done that

So is the trend your friend or is it be fearful when others are greedy? Which adage is right?

(30-04-2015, 07:44 PM)specuvestor Wrote:

(30-04-2015, 04:13 PM)Petertan Wrote: The more you try to understand , the more blurr you become. Honestly, I don't understand oil at all, but I also don't understand why people are still instead on been bearish on oil when the price heading up is telling a different story. So either market or they are wrong.

Follow the trend, the trend is your friend. But no matter what, the price is heading higher. Currently, we are just inches from $60..as of now it is 59.33.( i think this year high)

The news we read from CNBC, and marketwatch could be history ( already happen) by the time we read it. So it is actually the past. What is more important is market is anticipating the future demand. And I think market is bullish on this demand.

Nice to know that someone in a value forum made handsome profit without knowing what is happening

Like I told YewKim it is not that we don't understand what you guys are saying; the unfortunate and painful truth is however that we had been through it and done that

So is the trend your friend or is it be fearful when others are greedy? Which adage is right?

I prefer yewkim is right, at least till $65/70 is hit. I am still not able to understand the oil price, but the trend is clearly pointing to $65/70. I would rather follow trend than outdated news report which you guy seen to be very keen and paste all over the thread. What say you? Sorry to know you gone through this painful truth. You must has lose some money. Never mind, everyone do lose some, surely.

Moderator log:

After an investigation, moderators have reasonably confirmed that Yewkim and Petertan, are the same person, a male. We have decided to ban both accounts. He has fooled others as two different persons, in his recent post. He has abused the trust we granted.

Regards
Moderators

lol, was wondering why he was getting a little too argumentative with specuvestor's posts.

Other than the recent drop in USD, which makes commodities traded in USD to be more expensive, the recent containership incident could be another reason why oil price has been spiking. Now US is escorting ships with the Navy. Some escalation of tensions in Middle East like the Yemen case will always push oil price up.

U.S. Navy Has Accompanied Four Ships Since Iran Seized a Vessel
The U.S. Navy has accompanied four American-flagged vessels through the Strait of Hormuz so far in response to Iran’s seizure of a cargo ship flying the flag of the Marshall Islands, a former trust territory for which the U.S. has some security and defense responsibilities.

“All four ships were Military Sealift Command or U.S. government contract vessels,” Army Colonel Steve Warren, a Defense Department spokesman, told reporters at the Pentagon on Friday. “This is going to continue for an indefinite period of time.”

The U.S. move reflects increased tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, the No. 1 choke point for oil transit, after Iran seized the MV Maersk Tigris in the strait on Tuesday to enforce a court order in a decade-long commercial dispute.

The mission involves close monitoring of the ships but stops short of providing a military escort alongside each vessel. It “means that you’ve got a ship in the area that can respond in the event it’s required,” Air Force Colonel Patrick Ryder, a spokesman for U.S. Central Command, said. “Escort would be ‘no kidding’ right up near the ship, going alongside it in fairly close proximity.”

He said that the Maersk Tigris remains in Iran’s custody. While Ryder said discussions are being held with other nations about potentially accompanying their ships, the operation currently is focused on U.S.-flagged vessels.

(30-04-2015, 09:02 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: Moderator log:

After an investigation, moderators have reasonably confirmed that Yewkim and Petertan, are the same person, a male. We have decided to ban both accounts. He has fooled others as two different persons, in his recent post. He has abused the trust we granted.

Regards
Moderators

Actually i assumed Petertan is a young friend of Yewkim. Nobody talks like that about another person in this forum

If there's one thing i would like to learn from the moderators is how they get all these info from

Moderators have shown restraint and openness in this forum, and at the same time draw a very clear line on the sand. Thanks again for making this forum intellectually engaging and not emotional or hubris driven.

(04-05-2015, 12:50 AM)specuvestor Wrote:

(30-04-2015, 09:02 PM)CityFarmer Wrote: Moderator log:

After an investigation, moderators have reasonably confirmed that Yewkim and Petertan, are the same person, a male. We have decided to ban both accounts. He has fooled others as two different persons, in his recent post. He has abused the trust we granted.

Regards
Moderators

Actually i assumed Petertan is a young friend of Yewkim. Nobody talks like that about another person in this forum

If there's one thing i would like to learn from the moderators is how they get all these info from

Moderators have shown restraint and openness in this forum, and at the same time draw a very clear line on the sand. Thanks again for making this forum intellectually engaging and not emotional or hubris driven.

A bit off topic but to answer your question,

When you login to the forum, your computer's IP address is automatically recorded. If the same 2 accounts login from the same IP all the time you can conclude they are probably the same person.

So unless you set up a remote server which you can connect, to make it looks like you are login from another IP into your second account, it will be very easy for the Mod to tell if you are using the same computer to login with multiple accounts. Of course most people who try to use multiple accounts to be "funny" on forums likely won't have the technical expertise to do that. Conversely those with the technical expertise will not bother with doing this.

A good example of O&G support industry casualty...

WorleyParsons axes another 2000 jobs amid weaker demand
THE AUSTRALIAN 10:00 PM

Paul Garvey

Resources Reporter
Perth
WorleyParsons
WorleyParsons share chart. Source: TheAustralian
WorleyParsons has defended its record of transparency and ­disclosure after continued weaker demand for its services prompted the axing of another 2000 jobs and a deep cut to its earnings guidance.

The engineering group yesterday said the bulk of the latest job cuts would take place in North America, where weakness in oil prices has hurt its exposure to the energy sector, as well as an unspecified amount in Australia.

In addition, the company said it expected earnings in the second half to be down around 50 per cent from the $104.3 million net profit it recorded in the first half.

The drop in earnings will be driven by $125m in charges relating to the redundancies, onerous office leases and unspecified issues over a number of its projects.

Yesterday’s announcement came just over two months after the contractor said it expected that a “modest” decline in revenues and margins out of its mainstay oil and gas business would be tempered by cost-cutting efforts.

That outlook was criticised at the time by a number of analysts as overly optimistic, given the steep drop in oil prices over the past year and the deep capital ­expenditure cuts already flagged by many of the world’s largest oil and gas companies.

WorleyParsons CEO Andrew Wood said the company had tried in February to present an accurate picture of the feedback it had received from its customers, but the situation had worsened since.

“We had done a lot of work trying to understand what our customers’ expectations were, and we presented the information we had directly from our customers. It’s fair to say that given the fall-off in prices had been quite rapid … they were still coming to grips with what their response needed to be,” Mr Wood said.

He said continued talks with the company’s customers since then suggested spending would be lower for longer.

“It’s fair to say that our customers are seeing not so much a further fall-off, but are expecting more sustained lower level impact on their business and now have a lot more clarity around what their reactions will be in the short to medium term, and we’re reflecting that in how we’re setting up our business,” he said.

Mr Wood did not offer specific details about the project provisions that contributed to the $125m charge, saying only that they substantially related to projects the company had already done.

Shares in WorleyParsons fell 9.6 per cent to $10.35 yesterday. They have now dropped by more than 45 per cent since last July, with the stock falling out of the ASX Top 50 index as a result.

The 2000 job cuts means WorleyParsons will have shed around a quarter of its workforce from its peak. According to its most recent annual report, the engineering group had 35,600 employees around the world last June.

WorleyParsons has endured a run of profit downgrades in recent years on the back of the downturn firstly in the mining sector, and more recently in oil and gas. The company announced two earnings downgrades in the space of six months in 2013.

Yesterday’s announcement met with an underwhelming response from analysts.

One analyst, who did not want to be named, said the news showed that the company’s executives had their “heads in the sand” when they guided for only a modest drop in revenues at their February result.

“They are quite capable engineers, but I just don’t think the business has any real visibility and they want to pretend they have more visibility than they actually do,” the analyst said.

Shaw Stockbroking analyst Danny Younis said the announcement was “again poor transparency” from Worley­Parsons. “The company has not clearly enunciated an operational strategy to augment or stabilise margins, notwithstanding simple restructuring cost-outs via headcount reductions. Secondly, the complete lack of earnings visibility into FY16 and beyond is an even greater concern,” Mr Younis said.

Credit Suisse analyst Mark Samter noted that the consensus analyst estimate for Worley­Parsons’ 2015 net profit had fallen from about $555m to around $161m in the space of two years, with uncertainty around earnings set to persist.

A Mother Fracker of a Presentation by David Einhorn

Frackers do not make money in general, not by a long stretch. However, methinks that there are quite a few frackers that are in a much, much worse position than PXD, CLR or CXO.

LONDON (Reuters) - While oil futures prices rebound with vigor as analysts cite strong demand, the physical crude market tells a much more cautionary tale.

Tens of millions of barrels are struggling to find buyers in Europe with traders of West African, Azeri and North Sea crude blaming poor demand.

The deep disconnect between the oil futures and physical markets looks similar to the events of June 2014 when the physical market weakness became a precursor for a futures price crash.

read more here: Oil's bull run hides a deep disconnect, crude traders warn