Oil Prices

I think 36k dip is significant vs the past few dips past few months

http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-prices-s...1427878448

Now just waiting for growth of Cushing inventory to drop further on strike easing, to confirm a trend reversal.

(30-03-2015, 03:29 PM)specuvestor Wrote: IMHO as discussed the key is still the official end of US refinery strike and the plateau of US oil production around ~April. Yemen is noise

(02-04-2015, 08:40 AM)specuvestor Wrote: I think 36k dip is significant vs the past few dips past few months

Specuvestor

My analysts are saying that chances are, the production peaked out in Dec 2014 wor.

Oil is crossing 50 dollars. I read an IEA report that oil demand is surprising high. They expect oil to be trading at 60dollar by end 2nd half 2015. But unfortunately i lose that article, unable to paste here to share. Hope some of you guy may have read that in Marketwatch.

^^ The divergence in oil view is probably the highest in at least past 10 years. Do start reading this thread from Oct last year

(02-04-2015, 09:32 AM)Petertan Wrote: Oil is crossing 50 dollars. I read an IEA report that oil demand is surprising high. They expect oil to be trading at 60dollar by end 2nd half 2015. But unfortunately i lose that article, unable to paste here to share. Hope some of you guy may have read that in Marketwatch.

(02-04-2015, 09:24 AM)HitandRun Wrote:

(02-04-2015, 08:40 AM)specuvestor Wrote: I think 36k dip is significant vs the past few dips past few months

Specuvestor

My analysts are saying that chances are, the production peaked out in Dec 2014 wor.

So I'm a bit confused. Are you saying IEA revision will show production peaked in Dec 2014, or u betting against your analysts since you think it will peak Dec 2015? or 2014 is a typo?
http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-5541-...#pid104659

(02-04-2015, 09:50 AM)specuvestor Wrote: So I'm a bit confused. Are you saying IEA revision will show production peaked in Dec 2014, or u betting against your analysts since you think it will peak Dec 2015? or 2014 is a typo?
http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-5541-...#pid104659

No typo. Dec 2014 is their date.

(02-04-2015, 11:14 AM)HitandRun Wrote:

(02-04-2015, 09:50 AM)specuvestor Wrote: So I'm a bit confused. Are you saying IEA revision will show production peaked in Dec 2014, or u betting against your analysts since you think it will peak Dec 2015? or 2014 is a typo?
http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-5541-...#pid104659

No typo. Dec 2014 is their date.

sorry just kaypoh which analysts u talking about actually stick out their neck to say US oil production peaking in Dec 2014, when oil bearishness was at the peak? Though EIA data doesn't show Dec 14 as peak so they are approximately right too...

(02-04-2015, 01:37 PM)specuvestor Wrote: sorry just kaypoh which analysts u talking about actually stick out their neck to say US oil production peaking in Dec 2014, when oil bearishness was at the peak? Though EIA data doesn't show Dec 14 as peak so they are approximately right too...

In Dec 2014, they were saying that they expect oil production in US to peak soon but the opinions differ as to the exact date. But as of now, the majority of them are saying that the expected decline has started to manifest itself in Jan 2015. The rest felt that they needed more data ...

Thanks

hmmm more data... maybe you can quote me on "concluding a fat man is fat only after he stepped on the scales"

Delta on inventory and production are already reversing. Looks like guesstimate April is about right. Will look to vest more.

NB I can talk more specifically about oil than stock cause I doubt anyone here can move the market

I'll copy the first paragraph of the news. Please read the whole article as it could be misleading or taken out of context.

The reports are from 31 Mar, 1 Apr and 2 Apr. 3 consecutive days with "highest production" reports from different countries. I think my economy-major friend does have a point about low price might drive up oil production but as all econ major does - neither able to tell when this would end nor tell me what should I do :<.

"MOSCOW, April 2 (Reuters) - Russian oil production hit the latest in a line of post-Soviet highs in March, feeding higher exports that added to a global glut keeping crude prices low and hurting its economy."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/0...P420150402

"Rystad Energy estimates US annual oil production (crude oil plus lease condensate) to peak at 9.7 million bbls per day by September 2015, assuming WTI stays at 55 USD/bbl on average for the year. The average production for 2015 estimated at 9.65 million bpd could be an all-time high after its peak in 1970 with 9.64 million bpd as yearly average."
http://www.energyglobal.com/upstream/dri...gh-in-2015

"(Reuters) - OPEC oil supply has jumped in March to its highest since October as Iraq's exports rebounded after bad weather and Saudi Arabia pumped at close to record rates, a Reuters survey found, a sign key members are sticking to their effort to regain market share."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/3...MB20150331

If a final deal is reached, Iran also could tap crude stockpiled on tankers in the Persian Gulf while it sets about reviving shuttered wells, according to Barclays Plc. The country, which is storing about 30 million barrels in this fashion, will probably “release aggressively priced extra oil onto the market” to lure customers back, the IEA predicts.


Iran Moves Closer to Restoring Oil Exports on Nuclear Accord
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...ear-accord