ETF Investment

(01-02-2011, 07:54 PM)freedom Wrote: those ETFs employing swaps could be potential CDO....

Erm.. As long the underlying assets are high rating bonds or equities, there should not be a reoccurance of AIG issue where the underlying assets were CDOs (SPV consisting of ninja bonds).

Nonetheless, I am not vested in any ETFs nor done my due diligence on them. Those interested pls find out more before putting $$ in.

Mikh,

Sorry to side track but I find investing overseas much easier, especially in the US, as compared to our local market.
Sure, there is a disadvantage as there is a lack of 1st hand information but to make up for that you
have many analysts/ well written research reports covering the same company. The CEOs update the shareholders more
frequently and there is a willingness/obligation to share and be transparent. There are clear performance indicators to meet, there are clear plans how they will do it, also CEOs who do not perform get ousted. I somewhat like the way listed businesses are conducting themselves in the US, maybe because it is a more matured market.

And I am putting my money where my mouth is, I am transferring my funds to blue chip companies in the US. So far, I am halfway done.

In Singapore, most of the bigger companies are somehow linked to the garment. This will ensure that regulations are favorable in order for them to thrive. For S chips, you probably get much better quality china companies in HKSE.

(01-02-2011, 08:45 PM)mrEngineer Wrote:

(01-02-2011, 07:54 PM)freedom Wrote: those ETFs employing swaps could be potential CDO....

Erm.. As long the underlying assets are high rating bonds or equities, there should not be a reoccurance of AIG issue where the underlying assets were CDOs (SPV consisting of ninja bonds).

Nonetheless, I am not vested in any ETFs nor done my due diligence on them. Those interested pls find out more before putting $$ in.

Do understand that before the 2008 crisis, those "high rating bonds or equities" like CDOs also are rated by big name rating agencies like S&P, Fitch etc as "AAA" too and look at what happened. I believed that before the "**** hit the fan", no one would believed that Bear and Sterns and Lehman Brother can go underwater since they are big financial instituitions. So moderation is the key and never bet the house on anything.

Ever the pessimist here...

I bought into the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF and the iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF tonight. My idea is to ride on the ECB QE which will push the markets and the recovery (for Spain). Exited my French holdings too early but it was good enough.

As the Greek ETF is by far the more risky one (much smaller fund size and banking on the Greeks!!), it is a very small position in my portfolio....something I put it right at the top under the speculative positions.

(17-03-2015, 12:13 AM)Caelitus Wrote: I bought into the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF and the iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF tonight. My idea is to ride on the ECB QE which will push the markets and the recovery (for Spain). Exited my French holdings too early but it was good enough.

As the Greek ETF is by far the more risky one (much smaller fund size and banking on the Greeks!!), it is a very small position in my portfolio....something I put it right at the top under the speculative positions.

Grek is a total tikam. It can easily go either way. Good that you keep it small.

For the Spanish one, you might have already noted that 20% of the weight is in Satander, which derives a big part of its revenue from Brazil, which is having its own troubles. There is also contagion danger from Greece because Spain has its own sizeable anti austerity movement.

To play on EUR depreciation, the obvious one is Germany, but of course it has already run up.

There is actually a pure EUR play right here in our own backyard on the SGX btw. I'm thinking of nibbling...

Passive investing on ETF, seems getting popular, not among retail investors, but also institutional investors. I got the view, base on the article read in the last few months.

(just share a view, not really in ETF investing)

(17-03-2015, 07:19 AM)tanjm Wrote:

(17-03-2015, 12:13 AM)Caelitus Wrote: I bought into the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF and the iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF tonight. My idea is to ride on the ECB QE which will push the markets and the recovery (for Spain). Exited my French holdings too early but it was good enough.

As the Greek ETF is by far the more risky one (much smaller fund size and banking on the Greeks!!), it is a very small position in my portfolio....something I put it right at the top under the speculative positions.

Grek is a total tikam. It can easily go either way. Good that you keep it small.

For the Spanish one, you might have already noted that 20% of the weight is in Satander, which derives a big part of its revenue from Brazil, which is having its own troubles. There is also contagion danger from Greece because Spain has its own sizeable anti austerity movement.

To play on EUR depreciation, the obvious one is Germany, but of course it has already run up.

Visited southern Spain in May 2012 and the general mood was one of depression. On hindsight, that should have been my first entry point. General sensing from news reports is that the business mood and populace morale have improved.

The political risk to Spain will be the regional elections. Will concessions have to be made by the central government? As for the anti-austerity drive, growth should enable the government to continue with their policies. Spain had a full year of growth in 2014. It is estimated that there will be 2.3% growth in 2015 and 2.5% in 2016 yet with falling prices. The growth should mitigate the pressures from anti-austerity. Anyway, is it not correct to get one's finances in order first by tackling expenses? As for the exposure to Brazil, while there are some troubles, I expect the Bovespa to climb as Rio 2016 approaches.

Does anyone here invest in Spanish real estate through PE funds or other available funds?

Greece is another story altogether. Thinking of it as a bad asset at a good price.

(17-03-2015, 09:45 AM)Caelitus Wrote: As for the exposure to Brazil, while there are some troubles, I expect the Bovespa to climb as Rio 2016 approaches.

For what fundamental reason do you think that?

For Satander in particular, do you think there's no risk of permanent damage? e.g. nationalization, hyperinflation or a very large debasement of the real?

Many pieces of bad news about Latin America

The Brazilian Real has dropped to its lowest in a decade. While their agricultural industry is threatened by drought and the commodities market by the low prices, export growth should pick up with recoveries in North America (trading partner growth) and hopefully there will be a soft landing in China. Projections for 2015 and 2016 forecast Brazil to grow. We shall see if the Bovespa is looking forward to that. Shall revisit in 2.25 months' time.

From 2008 - 2013, the poverty headcount ratio has declined every year from 14.1% to 8.9%. Unemployment rate is also decreasing every year. If they are highly productive, this might be a boost.

I am not directly vested in Brazil only through Aberdeen Global Emerging Markets Fund.