Samudera Shipping

Price has gone up I think investors believe Samudera should reap the benefit of lower bunker fuel price which is now lower by 50% compared to 6 months ago. The saving would be significant because fuel alone takes up 50% of the ship operating cost. In the 2013 annual report, the cost of sale is USD 381 million.

Vested

(30-01-2015, 12:27 PM)chongsk Wrote: Price has gone up I think investors believe Samudera should reap the benefit of lower bunker fuel price which is now lower by 50% compared to 6 months ago. The saving would be significant because fuel alone takes up 50% of the ship operating cost. In the 2013 annual report, the cost of sale is USD 381 million.

Vested

You are probably right on the cost saving due to a plunge in Bunker Oil price. In AR2013, the Bunker oil was USD 100.4 mil out of the cost of sale of USD 382 mil or constitute 26% of COGS. On average USD 25 mil per quarter, 50% drop so it is around 12.5 million before tax, as a reference the 9mFY2014 net profit is around USD 10 million. Samudera typically paid out 30% of net profit as dividend.

The current CEO Asmari Herry Prayitno formerly COO has also been doing a good job of aggressively paring down debt level, from net gearing of 65.47% in 1QFY2013 (i.e. resignation of former CEO Mr Torkis David Parlaungan Batubara on 14 May 2013) to current 42% and this save the company quite a lot of interest for debt.

Samudera shipping is in a sweet spot currently because most of their vessels are of smaller capacity i.e. less the 2,000 TEUS which are ideal for carrying containers from the Singapore hub port to other spoke ports in asia especially in indonesia. Due to the infrastructure for the spoke ports, only container with smaller capacity is able to dock. With the new president jokowi which is a very on the ground and hand on guy, I am pretty positive about Indonesia economic growth going forward.

vested

If 50% savings on oil, then US50.2m cost savings. (you can play around with this figure)

How much is it when converted to Sing Dollar?

How many shares are there? 538m shares.

Take out tax and how much EPS?

Not to forget it is already profitable so you got to add the savings to the earnings....

As for the assets

http://samudera.listedcompany.com/newsro...erties.pdf

http://samudera.listedcompany.com/newsro...080806.pdf

(30-01-2015, 02:43 PM)ngcheeki Wrote:

(30-01-2015, 12:27 PM)chongsk Wrote: Price has gone up I think investors believe Samudera should reap the benefit of lower bunker fuel price which is now lower by 50% compared to 6 months ago. The saving would be significant because fuel alone takes up 50% of the ship operating cost. In the 2013 annual report, the cost of sale is USD 381 million.

Vested

You are probably right on the cost saving due to a plunge in Bunker Oil price. In AR2013, the Bunker oil was USD 100.4 mil out of the cost of sale of USD 382 mil or constitute 26% of COGS. On average USD 25 mil per quarter, 50% drop so it is around 12.5 million before tax, as a reference the 9mFY2014 net profit is around USD 10 million. Samudera typically paid out 30% of net profit as dividend.

The current CEO Asmari Herry Prayitno formerly COO has also been doing a good job of aggressively paring down debt level, from net gearing of 65.47% in 1QFY2013 (i.e. resignation of former CEO Mr Torkis David Parlaungan Batubara on 14 May 2013) to current 42% and this save the company quite a lot of interest for debt.

Samudera shipping is in a sweet spot currently because most of their vessels are of smaller capacity i.e. less the 2,000 TEUS which are ideal for carrying containers from the Singapore hub port to other spoke ports in asia especially in indonesia. Due to the infrastructure for the spoke ports, only container with smaller capacity is able to dock. With the new president jokowi which is a very on the ground and hand on guy, I am pretty positive about Indonesia economic growth going forward.

vested

I was thinking about this stock for some time after writing my first reply. So I took some time to analyse this company, and analyse it along with Penguin. To me, it is very simple. I like a company that grows and earnings are always the thing that propels a stock price to go up.

Penguin's debt is zero compared to Samudera Shipping (declining) debt
Penguin has better net profit margins.
Penguin valuations are better.
Samudera Shipping has more assets backing.
Penguin's business is more familiar and perhaps, investors would assign a premium due to familiarity and a bettter shareholder base.

Samudera Shipping would've been an excellent buy if I caught it last year.... That being said, the net profits has already exceeded the previous highs set in recent years, so it is a promising sign!

1USD to Sing Dollar

31 Dec 2013 - 1.267
31 Mar 2014 - 1.2593
30 June 2014 - 1.2497
30 Sept 2014 - 1.2743
31 Dec 2014 - 1.3213
24 Feb 2015 - 1.3604

http://finance.yahoo.com/currency-conver...=SGD;amt=1

Samudera FY2014
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Samudera...eID=336424

1Q2014 Earnings USD$444kk
2Q2014 Earnings USD$4.282m
3Q2014 Earning USD$5.307m
4Q2014 Earnings USD$4.488m

But in FY2014 there is an impairment of assets of $3.512m of which the impairment is $0.269m for the 1st 9 mths. Hence impairment of $3.243m for 4Q. 4Q2014 earnings should be much higher without the impairment.

USD$46.556m cash generated from operating activities compared to USD$30.146m the previous year. When converted to Sing dollar that's more than 10 cents per cash taking into account 538m shares.

1.75 cents dividend or 6.25% yield if using closing share price of 28 cents

To get a glimpse of the fall in price of oil, let's take a look at the gross profit margin of the company.

For FY2014. Gross Profit Margin(GPM) is 8.7% (31.688/364.154).
1Q2014 GPM = 4.99%
2Q2014 GPM = 7.81%
3Q2014 GPM = 9.73%
4Q2014 GPM = 12.11%

The significant fall in oil price happened when the OPEC failed to cut production in late Nov. So most probably 1Q2015 GPM would be better if not as good as 4Q2014.

http://www.businessinsider.com/opec-vote...et-2014-11

Most probably this year(FY2015) earnings will be higher than last year and if company maintains 1/3 dividend payout, those looking for yield might want to take a look at this company.

(26-02-2015, 09:41 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: Samudera FY2014
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Samudera...eID=336424

1Q2014 Earnings USD$444kk
2Q2014 Earnings USD$4.282m
3Q2014 Earning USD$5.307m
4Q2014 Earnings USD$4.488m

But in FY2014 there is an impairment of assets of $3.512m of which the impairment is $0.269m for the 1st 9 mths. Hence impairment of $3.243m for 4Q. 4Q2014 earnings should be much higher without the impairment.

USD$46.556m cash generated from operating activities compared to USD$30.146m the previous year. When converted to Sing dollar that's more than 10 cents per cash taking into account 538m shares.

1.75 cents dividend or 6.25% yield if using closing share price of 28 cents

Samudera's NTA USD46.60cts. Based on 40% discount, Samudera should worth at least 37cts.

My personal opinion only!

Samudera's updated profile

http://samudera.listedcompany.com/

http://samudera.listedcompany.com/financials.html

http://samudera.listedcompany.com/financial_ratios.html

http://samudera.listedcompany.com/highlights.html

Falling oil price and appreciating US Dollar are good for Samudera


31 Dec 2013 - 1.267
31 Mar 2014 - 1.2593
30 June 2014 - 1.2497
30 Sept 2014 - 1.2743
31 Dec 2014 - 1.3213
24 Feb 2015 - 1.3604
16 Mar 2015 - 1.3915

(24-02-2015, 06:16 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: 1USD to Sing Dollar

31 Dec 2013 - 1.267
31 Mar 2014 - 1.2593
30 June 2014 - 1.2497
30 Sept 2014 - 1.2743
31 Dec 2014 - 1.3213
24 Feb 2015 - 1.3604

http://finance.yahoo.com/currency-conver...=SGD;amt=1