Oil Prices

(06-01-2015, 10:44 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: I read one interview of a movie stuntman. The main takeaway for me, was the risks involved, are likely lower than a reckless driver on road. The reasons been the stuntman take no chance. He "hedges" almost all risks with safety measures, and always be prepared for the worst. He has done so, even for a simple and perceived safe stunt.

I don't brush-off the merit of long-short style of investing, as long as the risks are properly hedged, rather than rely purely on individual "insight" or worst, the lucky star.

A friendly reminder, the risk of loss on a short is theoretically infinite.

I have no insight on the oil price trend, thus no comment on all views either down, or up.

In fact it's practically infinite. Everyone who shots already knows what's a "short squeeze" can do. If you don't know, how come i very, very rarely shot also know? i ever shot by mistake but i realised and covered immediately.

I am afraid that short squeeze will be miles away. The US is smart under Obama, and he basically promise America that they will be independent of oil for ME, and this he did it. Today consequences is the result of shale oil fantastic result and also because of technological advance, As to oil will be a hot commodity is yet to be seen.

You must have a stop loss on all vestment, irrespective it is long or short or whatever. I believe soon we see Ezion go below 1$ and kepcorp near 6$ before we call this oil near bottom.

(06-01-2015, 10:44 AM)CityFarmer Wrote: I read one interview of a movie stuntman. The main takeaway for me, was the risks involved, are likely lower than a reckless driver on road. The reasons been the stuntman take no chance. He "hedges" almost all risks with safety measures, and always be prepared for the worst. He has done so, even for a simple and perceived safe stunt.

I don't brush-off the merit of long-short style of investing, as long as the risks are properly hedged, rather than rely purely on an individual "insight" or worst, the lucky star.

A friendly reminder, the risk of loss on a short is theoretically infinite.

I have no insight on the oil price trend, thus no comment on all views either down, or up.

Suppose u bought Ezion at 2$ plus, now it is 1.12$ , that is close to 50% drop if u do not has a stop loss. 50% down will has to do a 100% just to break even.


Two things a value invester can do while he wait it out for the storm to pass. First, he got stop out ( he has stop loss) , and wait for near bottom ( may not be the very bottom, but definitely one of the low) to buy cheap and more lots so when it reverse he break even faster and make a profit. Another way is to average down, buy more using dollar cost averaging.


Second one will be more stressful, because it will go down day to day, and we also got limited resources, so this is the lesser choice.


Anyway, stop loss is a must for all vestment. If you do not have this, then i am afraid those who bought Ezion at 2$, will wait a long time just to break even. I believe some of you here did, as i can see the way you post so desperately, show you all got vestment here in this OnG counter.


And thanks for the warning, I have strict stop enshrine whether be it long or short. As for SCO, i have handsome profit. I will use trailing stop to take my profit and also will load more on every 7/8% drop in oil till market reverse and force me out of my position with my profit. If one dont want to cut loss, then he should not be in this instrument, it is risky. Just like i said, the risk lay with us. Just like a stunt man do, as you put it. I agree. Wondering why someone can walk blindfolded across Nigeria Fall on a cable, cos he mange his risk well, He is the risk himself, not the waterfall below.

Stop loss is good only if you are correct. If you are wrong.... you hear the sound of a whip cracking. That's where some are good at using the whip and some are good at avoiding it. That is no one is correct all the time.

(06-01-2015, 03:13 PM)yewkim Wrote: Suppose u bought Ezion at 2$ plus, now it is 1.12$ , that is close to 50% drop if u do not has a stop loss. 50% down will has to do a 100% just to break even.


Two things a value invester can do while he wait it out for the storm to pass. First, he got stop out ( he has stop loss) , and wait for near bottom ( may not be the very bottom, but definitely one of the low) to buy cheap and more lots so when it reverse he break even faster and make a profit. Another way is to average down, buy more using dollar cost averaging.


Second one will be more stressful, because it will go down day to day, and we also got limited resources, so this is the lesser choice.


Anyway, stop loss is a must for all vestment. If you do not have this, then i am afraid those who bought Ezion at 2$, will wait a long time just to break even. I believe some of you here did, as i can see the way you post so desperately, show you all got vestment here in this OnG counter.


And thanks for the warning, I have strict stop enshrine whether be it long or short. As for SCO, i have handsome profit. I will use trailing stop to take my profit and also will load more on every 7/8% drop in oil till market reverse and force me out of my position with my profit. If one dont want to cut loss, then he should not be in this instrument, it is risky. Just like i said, the risk lay with us. Just like a stunt man do, as you put it. I agree. Wondering why someone can walk blindfolded across Nigeria Fall on a cable, cos he mange his risk well, He is the risk himself, not the waterfall below.

I know nothing on TA, but I do know its risk management isn't limited to stop-loss only.

Anyway, wish you luck. One point I am sure is, the strategy is nothing to do with value investing principles, which this forum is mandated. I suggest to tone it down here.

Regards
Moderator

(06-01-2015, 03:32 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(06-01-2015, 03:13 PM)yewkim Wrote: Suppose u bought Ezion at 2$ plus, now it is 1.12$ , that is close to 50% drop if u do not has a stop loss. 50% down will has to do a 100% just to break even.


Two things a value invester can do while he wait it out for the storm to pass. First, he got stop out ( he has stop loss) , and wait for near bottom ( may not be the very bottom, but definitely one of the low) to buy cheap and more lots so when it reverse he break even faster and make a profit. Another way is to average down, buy more using dollar cost averaging.


Second one will be more stressful, because it will go down day to day, and we also got limited resources, so this is the lesser choice.


Anyway, stop loss is a must for all vestment. If you do not have this, then i am afraid those who bought Ezion at 2$, will wait a long time just to break even. I believe some of you here did, as i can see the way you post so desperately, show you all got vestment here in this OnG counter.


And thanks for the warning, I have strict stop enshrine whether be it long or short. As for SCO, i have handsome profit. I will use trailing stop to take my profit and also will load more on every 7/8% drop in oil till market reverse and force me out of my position with my profit. If one dont want to cut loss, then he should not be in this instrument, it is risky. Just like i said, the risk lay with us. Just like a stunt man do, as you put it. I agree. Wondering why someone can walk blindfolded across Nigeria Fall on a cable, cos he mange his risk well, He is the risk himself, not the waterfall below.

I know nothing on TA, but I do know its risk management isn't limited to stop-loss only.

Anyway, wish you luck. One point I am sure is, the strategy is nothing to do with value investing principles, which this forum is mandated. I suggest to tone it down here.

Regards
Moderator

Value investing does not means hold till cow come home. If u still think so, then it has to be, it cannot be otherwise.

Stop loss strategy will enhance your portfolio. So it is related to value investing.


If you think it is not, then you can block me from this forum. No worry.

(06-01-2015, 03:39 PM)yewkim Wrote:

(06-01-2015, 03:32 PM)CityFarmer Wrote:

(06-01-2015, 03:13 PM)yewkim Wrote: Suppose u bought Ezion at 2$ plus, now it is 1.12$ , that is close to 50% drop if u do not has a stop loss. 50% down will has to do a 100% just to break even.


Two things a value invester can do while he wait it out for the storm to pass. First, he got stop out ( he has stop loss) , and wait for near bottom ( may not be the very bottom, but definitely one of the low) to buy cheap and more lots so when it reverse he break even faster and make a profit. Another way is to average down, buy more using dollar cost averaging.


Second one will be more stressful, because it will go down day to day, and we also got limited resources, so this is the lesser choice.


Anyway, stop loss is a must for all vestment. If you do not have this, then i am afraid those who bought Ezion at 2$, will wait a long time just to break even. I believe some of you here did, as i can see the way you post so desperately, show you all got vestment here in this OnG counter.


And thanks for the warning, I have strict stop enshrine whether be it long or short. As for SCO, i have handsome profit. I will use trailing stop to take my profit and also will load more on every 7/8% drop in oil till market reverse and force me out of my position with my profit. If one dont want to cut loss, then he should not be in this instrument, it is risky. Just like i said, the risk lay with us. Just like a stunt man do, as you put it. I agree. Wondering why someone can walk blindfolded across Nigeria Fall on a cable, cos he mange his risk well, He is the risk himself, not the waterfall below.

I know nothing on TA, but I do know its risk management isn't limited to stop-loss only.

Anyway, wish you luck. One point I am sure is, the strategy is nothing to do with value investing principles, which this forum is mandated. I suggest to tone it down here.

Regards
Moderator

Value investing does not means hold till cow come home. If u still think so, then it has to be, it cannot be otherwise.

Stop loss strategy will enhance your portfolio. So it is related to value investing.


If you think it is not, then you can block me from this forum. No worry.

It is not right to ban due to a different view, but posts which are promoting other strategies, will be moved to Others sub-forum, or even be removed. This is the job of moderator to keep the theme of our forum.

The point isn't on stop-loss, but the very basic principle of value vs price in analysis. Your strategy is more of TA, rather than FA.

View on oil prices are welcomed, but let's tone down on your "investment" (or should I call it trading?)

IIRC, there is a thread discussing on stop-losses, which you might want to take a look, and contribute from there.

Nothing personal.

Regards
Moderator

The latest price update of oil...

Oil prices steady after 5 percent plunge; Brent holds above $53

SINGAPORE - Oil edged up on Tuesday, steadying after a 5 percent plunge in the previous session that saw prices touch fresh 5-1/2-year lows in an oversupplied market.

Worries about surplus oil supplies were fueled by data showing output in Russia hit a post-Soviet-era high in 2014 and exports from OPEC's second largest producer, Iraq, were the highest since 1980. Jitters over political uncertainty in Greece drove investors out of risk assets globally to safe-haven bonds.

"It's building on the recent bearish supply/demand outlook of oil, led originally by the OPEC meeting," said Mark Keenan, who heads Asia commodities research at Societe Generale.
...
http://www.todayonline.com/business/oil-...t-below-56

At the mean time, the forecasts of analysts...

Brent prices to average US$75 in 2015 and US$80 next year: Credit Suisse

SINGAPORE (Jan 6): Brent prices are expected to average US$75 a barrel in 2015 and US$80 next year, provided non-OPEC producers, particularly those in the US, cut production, says Credit Suisse.

Oil prices will have to recover as they are currently too low to fund efforts to generate supply, Credit Suisse analysts, led by Gerald Wong, wrote in a report today.
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...dit-suisse

the problem is, how do you know when the storm finishes? How do you know the low that you buy is one of the lows?

Valuable stocks ride through the storm, if you abandon it and come back again when it's sunny, that defeats the principle of value investing I guess