Australian Economic News

I am not much of an economist. .but I see the same macro similarities everywhere. Lets see whose currency and rates are lower. Maybe the next crisis is currency lol

No worries, when everyone in the same shoe,then the strongest bloke will do all the heavy lifting - Captain America to the rescue...

(02-12-2014, 10:38 PM)newbie11 Wrote: I am not much of an economist. .but I see the same macro similarities everywhere. Lets see whose currency and rates are lower. Maybe the next crisis is currency lol

[emoji106] [emoji106] [emoji106]

Aust dollar slumps below US84c
AAP DECEMBER 03, 2014 4:45PM

The Australian dollar has sunk below US84 cents for the first time since 2010 as disappointing economic growth figures stoke expectations of a rate cut.

At 4pm (AEDT), the local currency had recovered marginally and was trading at US84.07c, but still down from US85.16c around the same time yesterday.

The Australian dollar hit a low of US83.92c - its lowest level since July 2010 - soon after economic growth figures were released at 11:30am.

The economy grew by just 0.3 per cent in the September quarter - much weaker than the 0.7 per cent economists were expecting.

Annual growth came in at 2.7 per cent, below expectations of 3.1 per cent.

“The Reserve Bank has been forecasting below trend growth but the numbers we got out today are well below forecasts and will probably come as a shock to the RBA board,” Forex.com research analyst Chris Tedder said.

“That big miss is causing some market participants to reassess whether the RBA is going to actually cut rates next year.

“Accordingly, the Aussie dollar has taken a battering.”

Treasurer Joe Hockey said the falling Australian dollar would help to cushion the impact of declining national income from abroad.

Mr Hockey welcomed the recent significant drop in the currency.

“It helps to cushion the economic impact from fall terms of trade,” Mr Hockey told reporters in Canberra.

“A lower exchange rate is an important driver for rebalancing growth across the economy.”

The weaker data sent bond futures prices higher.

The December 2014 10-year bond futures contract was trading at 96.895 (implying a yield of 3.105 per cent), up from 96.865 (3.135 per cent) on Tuesday.

The December 2014 three-year bond futures contract was at 97.630 (2.370 per cent), up from 97.570 (2.430 per cent).

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Australian dollar slumps as growth rate slows
THE AUSTRALIAN DECEMBER 03, 2014 3:18PM

Adam Creighton

Economics Correspondent
Sydney


ONLY weeks after signing up to an ambitious growth target in Brisbane, the government’s economic credentials have taken another beating as the country’s economic growth rate slumps to less than half what was expected.

Australia’s economy grew by 0.3 per cent in the September quarter and by 2.7 per cent in the 12 months to September, official figures show.

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth was expected to rise by 0.7 per cent in the quarter for an annual rate of 3.1 per cent, according to AAP’s survey of 15 economists.

The Australian dollar slumped on the news, dipping below US84c to a four-year low on the weaker-than-expected result.

The local currency hit US83.97c, its lowest level since July 2010, after the figures were released at 11:30am (AEDT), down from US84.62c just before the data.

News of a dramatic slowdown in growth will put pressure on the government to dump its controversial spending cuts, and raise the possibility for further official cuts in interest rates in the new year.

Australia’s economic growth rate has to 2.7 per cent over the year to September, but real net national disposable income finished the 12-month period only 0.8 per cent higher.

Mining, financial services and IT made the biggest contributions to growth of the quarter, while public administration and construction shrank, which will surprise economists given the jump in home building.

A drop in non-residential construction was the main driver behind the weaker-than-expected figures, JP Morgan economist Tom Kennedy said.

“Non-dwelling construction took off 0.6 per cent and that was clearly the biggest drag and that was a bit of a surprise to us,” he said.

“Private capital expenditure is the key drag here and is the big reason why we got the downside surprise.

“Non-mining is picking up in a broad sense but it hasn’t really picked up sufficiently, it seems, to really offset the weakness in the resources sector.”

But Commsec chief economist Craig James said economic growth was moving towards the RBA’s expected forecasts for the December quarter.

“On the basis of current forecasts, the Reserve Bank had expected annual growth to slow to 2.5 per cent in the December quarter,” he said.

“In short, the economy is evolving as expected, so the Reserve Bank is unlikely to be tempted to cut rates again.

“We think that the next move in rates will be up, but not until August 2015 at the earliest.”

Mr James expects the economy to grow at around 3 per cent over the 2014/15 financial year, then accelerate in the first half of the following year.

“While some analysts are tipping another rate cut, that could actually be counteractive - creating greater angst about the future amongst consumers and businesses,” he said

Exports of goods and services grew 0.6 per cent over the three months, one of the biggest contributions to economic growth, but the Australia’s terms of trade fell 3.5 per cent over the same period foreshadowing weaker contributions from the sector in the future.

Household spending rose 0.5 per cent in the September quarter and was up 2.5 per cent over the year to September, seasonally adjusted.

Total investment in housing fell 0.9 per cent in the quarter to be up 6.8 per cent in the year to September.

Total gross fixed capital formation — investment by households, businesses and government — fell 2.7 per cent in the quarter and was down 2.8 per cent over the year.

Domestic final demand, a measure of total spending in the economy, fell 0.3 per cent in the quarter and was up 0.9 per cent over the year.

A key measure of inflation, the implicit price deflator for household final consumption, was flat in the September quarter, from a rise of 0.5 per cent in the previous quarter, and was up 2.0 per cent over the year.

Farm GDP, in chain volume measures, rose 1.5 per cent in the September quarter and was down 3.9 per cent in the 12 months to September.

With AAP

Goldman predicts two rate cuts in 2015
VICTORIA THIEBERGER DECEMBER 04, 2014 1:15PM

Persistent weakness in the economy, rising unemployment and low inflation will prompt the Reserve Bank to cut official interest rates twice in 2015, beginning in March, according to Goldman Sachs forecasts.

Goldman Sachs head of economics Tim Toohey said after the weak September quarter GDP released yesterday, it would be a challenge for economic growth to reach the 2 per cent forecast in 2015 that Goldman Sachs is expecting.

That is already well below consensus economists forecasts for 2.9 per cent in 2015. Goldman Sachs expects GDP growth of 2.9 per cent in 2014.

September quarter GDP printed at just 0.3 per cent, less than half market forecasts.

Mr Toohey said the income shock linked to the slump in commodities prices and the fiscal drag likely to come from cuts in the May federal budget would contribute to economic weakness.

He said he now expects the RBA will cut official interest rates by 25 basis points in March and again in August, taking the cash rate to a record low 2.0 per cent.

"As we look into the early part of next year, we see headline inflation below the bottom of the Reserve Bank's target band," Mr Toohey told a media briefing.

"The central bank can make a case purely around inflation and unemployment to justify easing," he said, adding he expects unemployment to rise to 6.5 per cent by the third quarter of next year.

Westpac expects two rate cuts in 2015
MICHAEL RODDAN DECEMBER 04, 2014 6:15PM

Westpac expects the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates in February and March next year before hiking rates in 2016.

Today the bank revised its RBA cash rate profile, expecting a cut to rates in the early months of 2014 in an effort to bolster domestic demand and lower the Australian dollar before the condition of the global economy becomes clearer around the middle of 2015.

Westpac said it expects the RBA to cut rates by 25 basis points in February and again in March prior to another period of stability.

Westpac is the first of the big 4 Australian banks to predict a further cut to rates.

The bank said weakness in the national accounts, including falling inflation, contracting national incomes and a loss in growth momentum, coupled with further sharp falls in commodities prices and continued weakness in consumer sentiment following the federal budget in mid-2014 will prompt the Reserve bank to lower rates further.

The RBA has held the cash rate at its record low level of 2.5 per cent for 16 consecutive months, the longest period of rates stability in a decade.

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said the bank would be downwardly revising its "already downbeat outlook for 2015" due to the risks in the national accounts.

He pointed to figures showing all states but NSW contracting, national income contracting for a second consecutive quarter, known as income recession, and markedly easing inflationary pressures as reasons for a cut.

The bank had also lowered its forecast for GDP growth to be below trend.

Mr Evans did pause for thought, adding that much could change in the period to the next RBA board meeting on February 3, but that even a sharp turnaround in commodity prices would not be clear by the end of the March quarter.

Earlier today, Goldman Sachs also forecast that persistent weakness in the economy, rising unemployment and low inflation would prompt the Reserve Bank to cut official interest rates twice in 2015, beginning in March.

Economy fears grow as construction activity contracts
AAP DECEMBER 05, 2014 10:14AM

CONSTRUCTION activity took a tumble in November, sparking further concerns about the health of the economy.

The construction industry contracted for the first time since May, according to figures from the Australian Industry Group and Housing Industry Association this morning.

The Performance of Construction Index dropped eight points to 45.4 in November — below the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction.

A slowdown in public building activity and demand for housing were also weighing on the industry, with the reduced workload forcing job losses, the report said.

The disappointing report comes after official figures on Wednesday showed a shock slowdown in the Australian economy in the September quarter, sparking debate about whether the cash rate should be slashed to a new record low.

Growth in house and apartment building decelerated in November, amid a decline in new orders, the report said.

But home building will need to re-accelerate in coming months, if it’s going to help offset the slowdown in mining construction.

“Perceptions regarding Australia’s short-term economic outlook have dampened recently and today’s result will hardly buoy the prevailing mood,” HIA chief economist Harley Dale said.

“The rate of expansion in detached house and apartment building activity slowed in November.

“It will be disappointing if the rate of expansion in these components fails to re-accelerate in coming months given new home construction is currently the key domestic sector with promise of healthy activity in 2015.”

The slower pace of home building activity has also been reflected in official figures, including building approvals and Wednesday’s weak GDP figures, Ai Group chief economist Julie Toth said.

“These data really underscore the fragile and sporadic nature of the current recovery in residential housing activity, especially as we move into the end of year shut-down period for much of the industry,” she said.

^^ those advocating pumping non productive housing to offset productive activity decline are advocating jumping from the pan into the fire. Worse than kicking can down the road.

They have no idea... Just number crunchers. If policy makers listen to them will be disastrous

Sometimes it is not the government that is stupid

(28-11-2014, 11:47 AM)specuvestor Wrote: ... we've seen so many boom and busts in the REGION. Why would this time be different for Australia with rising unemployment, declining commodity prices and economy boosted by housing FDI which is unsustainable?

Booming Sydney carries struggling national economy

November 28, 2014

Matt Wade, Senior writer

Sydney is driving the national economy, having contributed almost 40 per cent of Australia's growth last financial year.

The economy of greater Sydney expanded 4.3 per cent in 2013-14 – its fastest growth rate in 14 years – a report about the economic performance of Australian cities has found.

The city's financial sector, which includes banks and insurance firms, made the biggest contribution, followed by manufacturing, professional services, construction and real estate services.

Sydney's annual output reached $353 billion; 23 per cent of Australia's gross domestic product.

The report, by consultancy SGS Economics & Planning, said Sydney's growth was so strong that a hypothetical "Reserve Bank of Sydney" would set interest rates a full percentage point higher than the official rate of 2.5 per cent.

However, hypothetical reserve banks in Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide and Hobart would all have interest rates lower than the official rate, the report said.

"The RBA has to manage a booming Sydney economy while the rest of the country is struggling to grow in the face of a range of headwinds," the report's author, economist Terry Rawnsley, said.

Sydney's economy underperformed for much of the last decade. However, as the effects of the mining boom fade, it has emerged as a key source of national growth.

"This is a role Sydney played in the Australian economy back in the 1990s," Mr Rawnsley said. "It went off the radar during the mining boom during the 2000s but now that the mining boom is coming off, it might be Sydney's role again to power along."

Sydney contributed 37.9 per cent of Australia's GDP growth in 2013-14, more than the contributions of Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide and Hobart combined. The minerals-rich regional Western Australia contributed 29 per cent.

Mr Rawnsley said Sydney's financial sector had benefited from economic policies to revive growth in the United States and Europe.

"The city's role as a global financial hub has allowed it to tap into the benefits of stimulus programs undertaken by central banks around the world," he said.

Low interest rates and a revival in the housing sector have also boosted economic activity in Sydney. Manufacturing made a healthy contribution to growth last financial year, even though its share of the city's economy is less than half of what it was 20 years ago.

Mr Rawnsley said it was encouraging that Sydney's growth was so broad based.

"While challenges to growth still remain for the nation's largest city, Sydney appears to have turned the corner," he said.

Sydney's growth rate was more than double that of every other state capital, although it was lower than in regional Western Australia and Northern Territory, which are still being boosted by mining activity. The economic performance of regional NSW was in stark contrast to that of Sydney; it contracted by 3.5 per cent in 2013-14.

Mr Rawnsley said this was caused by "one-off factors" including the weather.

Committee for Sydney chief executive Tim Williams said the report underscored the crucial role that Sydney's financial sector is playing at a time of structural change in the national economy.

"What is vital now is to ensure that we get our necessary share of federal infrastructure investment – not in roads, but in city public transport – the key to maintaining Sydney's role as an economic engine for the nation," he said.

Australia's second largest city economy, Melbourne, grew 1.8 per cent in 2013-14 to $277 billion. It was Melbourne's lowest growth rate since 2000-01.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-ec...1v4k5.html

I have given up trying to know who is right or who is wrong simply because the world's problem is so complicated now - like kway lapis... its not today or y'day's issue. It could have started since gold standards were history...

Its basically to look for a less devil alternatives. Locally or overseas all the same... most of the policy makers or problem solvers can't be trusted...

Anyway, Australia has a much bigger economic base than what many can think of. The exchange rates are adjusting and hence before you know some industries could well be on the mend...

Noone gave Captain America a chance and now look at who has recovered and standing so tall - even when everyone is worrying about how Fed is going to unwind the record balance sheet...

Its not about being absolutely right or wrong... when there is a will, there is an available adjusting policy, then there is an half full glass...

In addition, Australia continued to be faced with a mismatch in demand and supply for home ownership... it is not as if the home ownership rate is as high as that of Singapore... the pool of renters and continued migrants growth will continue to underpin the need for housing investments... of course some areas like Dockland's oversupply problems are real and well publicised.

GG

(05-12-2014, 08:51 AM)specuvestor Wrote: ^^ those advocating pumping non productive housing to offset productive activity decline are advocating jumping from the pan into the fire. Worse than kicking can down the road.

They have no idea... Just number crunchers. If policy makers listen to them will be disastrous

Sometimes it is not the government that is stupid

(28-11-2014, 11:47 AM)specuvestor Wrote: ... we've seen so many boom and busts in the REGION. Why would this time be different for Australia with rising unemployment, declining commodity prices and economy boosted by housing FDI which is unsustainable?