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  More wild swings in share market
Posted by: Musicwhiz - 12-08-2011, 07:01 AM - Forum: Others - No Replies

Is the section in BOLD true? I still strongly believe in investing for the long-term based on the fundamentals of the underlying business. Big Grin

The Straits Times
Published on Aug 12, 2011
More wild swings in share market


By Jonathan Kwok
WITHIN 15 minutes of the Singapore market opening yesterday, shares of investor darling Singapore Airlines had sunk to $10.30 apiece.

But just five hours later, the stock was almost $1 higher at $11.28, handsomely rewarding fleet-footed traders who were brave enough to take on the risk of an intra-day trade.

It is a scene that has been played out increasingly often in the past two weeks, as jittery markets oscillate between fear and optimism.

For some market watchers , the chaotic scenes inspire a feeling of deja vu.

'This feeling is familiar, reminiscent of the previous crisis back in 2008,' said Singapore remisier Alan Goh.

'It's so volatile that the market can swing from red to green, and back from green to red. You never really know what's going to happen.'

'The markets are showing a lot of intra-day volatility,' said IG Markets Singapore managing director Peter McDermott. 'It's comparable to 2008 levels - a fraction lower than 2008 - and we haven't been at these levels since those days.'

Global markets have taken a heavy beating since the start of the month that has erased US$4trillion (S$4.8trillion) in share values worldwide, amid renewed fears of another United States recession and deepening euro zone debt woes.

The drama continued with yesterday's roller-coaster ride, which saw Asian shares initially plunging deep into the red, following Wall Street's overnight losses, but gaining strength as the day went on.

Tokyo and Hong Kong were down over 2 per cent but recovered most losses. Seoul and Shanghai shares ended in the black after early losses, partly with the help of state funds that snapped up stocks to lend support.

In Singapore, the Straits Times Index plunged 100 points, or over 3 per cent. It broke briefly into positive territory in the afternoon but another late dip meant the index ended the day lower by 0.88 per cent.

It was the same story in Europe, where markets opened higher, between 2 and 3 per cent, before renewed pessimism over French banks pulled the indexes under and a strong opening on Wall Street hoisted them back up.

At about 11pm last night, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 300 points, or more than 2.8 per cent, and had regained the 11,000 mark.

The return of volatility has led to more investors giving up holding stocks long-term and turning to short-term trades to try to make a quick buck, broking houses told The Straits Times.

'Most of them are intra-day,' said Mr Daniel Kwek, executive vice-president of retail operations at Kim Eng Securities, referring to those who buy and sell the same stock on the same day, pocketing or paying up the price difference.

He confirmed that Kim Eng has seen more short-term traders and added: 'In this stock market, people are more cautious about holding shares overnight. The swings are so huge, you don't know what the Dow Jones is going to do tonight.'

One trader, who did not want to be named, said he went back into intra-day trading yesterday - something he had not done for almost two years.

'Intra-day trading can be stressful as I have to stare at the screen the whole day,' he said. 'But today, I saw the markets were choppy, so I bought, made some profit, and just ran by the end of the day.'

Other traders have turned to derivatives, like contracts for difference (CFDs), which allow them to easily take bets on the market's direction.

IG Markets, which allows people to trade CFDs, as well as indexes and currencies, reports that it is handling double the number of trades per day from its client base. The rate of account opening, from new traders, has also doubled.

But investment advisers and strategists warned yesterday that in this type of market, prices can swing unpredictably against a punter, so investors must be well-trained before trying out short-term trades.

'Most people who enter intra-day trades are normally hardened traders who can follow prices minute-to-minute,' said AmFraser Securities analyst Najeeb Jarhom.

'Those who are novices are doing an unwise thing, it's almost suicidal. I've spoken to one trader who said that to follow even two stocks in a day is a very difficult task.'

Mr Vasu Menon, head of content and research at OCBC's wealth management division, added: 'People have to understand the difference between excitement and investment. Intra-day trading offers you mainly excitement: it's akin to gambling, it's highly risky.'

jonkwok@sph.com.sg

Additional reporting by Charissa Yong

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  S'pore retail investors make flight to safety
Posted by: Musicwhiz - 09-08-2011, 07:42 AM - Forum: Others - Replies (7)

The start of the next bear market? Tongue

The Straits Times
Published on Aug 9, 2011
S'pore retail investors make flight to safety

Massive volumes of stocks traded as many prefer cash to equity

By Magdalen Ng

ENGINEER Sun Weixin, 28, was probably typical of thousands of fairly small investors caught up in yesterday's massive sell-off of stocks on the local bourse.

He liquidated his entire portfolio of mainly bank and blue-chip shares yesterday, worth less than $40,000. He suffered a loss but did not want to disclose the amount - but said he felt there is too much uncertainty to stay invested.

'I expect the months ahead to be worse. Rather than see my money stagnate and lose more, I might as well take it out until the charts show something better. There's too little information now, so I will be more conservative at this time.'

Phones were ringing off the hook for remisiers and fund managers yesterday, as retail investors reacted to the downgrade of the United States long-term credit rating and rising fears of a new global recession. Last Friday, credit rating agency Standard & Poor's cut Washington's debt rating from triple-A to AA+.

Grandtag Financial Consultancy chief executive Ben Fok said he received a 10 per cent jump in calls from clients seeking assurance about their investments. However, not many made outright redemptions of their unit trusts. He said: 'We usually advise our clients to continue investing, based on the principle of dollar cost averaging. But we have seen clients holding back in the past two weeks as confidence in the market wanes.'

Massive volumes of stocks were traded on the Singapore Exchange. More than 2.49 billion shares worth nearly $2.82 billion were traded, as investors made a frantic flight to safety.

While the US debt situation is nothing new and a downgrade had been on the cards, it added to an already volatile investment environment, with many preferring to hold cash rather than equity.

Another retail investor, Mr John Oh, 35, sold part of his portfolio even before a US debt ceiling agreement was reached, anticipating the downgrade: 'I chose to sell early because no one knows what will happen. I'm going to observe what happens in the next few days, before deciding when to re-enter the market.'

He sold 40 per cent of his $200,000 portfolio before Aug 2 and made a profit of $20,000.

Remisier Jan Lim at stockbroker Lim & Tan expects some technical rebound, but added this reminds him of the two-day crash in 2008 after the Lehman collapse.

On the other hand, Mr Peter Douglas, principal of local hedge fund GFIA, said that he has yet to observe any panic, because the downgrade was foreseeable: 'In terms of historical impact, the downgrade is more than the Lehman shock, but not in terms of medium-term impact.'

A DBS Vickers spokesman also said that they have not seen panic selling, but have observed that investors are trading with more caution during this period.

One unfazed investor is Mr William Wong, founder of Real Star Premier, which specialises in luxury properties: 'I intend to hold my equities for the long term, at least for two to three years. I think that so long as the fundamentals of the company is strong, it will rebound.'

Said Mr Vasu Menon, OCBC Bank's head of content and research for wealth management for Singapore: 'The sell-off over the past week has been very sharp and appears to indicate somewhat of an overreaction as fear has overtaken markets and blinded investors to the decent corporate fundamentals and valuations.

'Until markets are convinced that a longer-term solution to the US and European debt problems is in sight, volatility will remain a fixture and investors need to stay vigilant and prepared for markets to remain choppy in the coming weeks.'

songyuan@sph.com.sg

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  Let's talk about the white elephant in the room...........
Posted by: newborn1000 - 05-08-2011, 12:47 PM - Forum: Others - Replies (26)

Bloomberg

Asian Stocks Drop Most Since March
By Shiyin Chen - Aug 5, 2011

Asian stocks fell the most since March, extending a global rout, and the region’s bonds gained, while commodities dropped for an eighth day amid concern the U.S. economic recovery is petering out.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index tumbled 3.8 percent at 12:41 p.m. in Tokyo, set for its largest weekly decline since October 2008. Standard & Poor’s 500 futures slid 0.1 percent following yesterday’s 4.8 percent slump. Japan’s 10-year bond yield sank to this year’s low and the yen reversed earlier losses, a day after intervention by Japan. S&P’s GSCI Index of raw materials was set for its longest decline since December 2008, paced by losses in oil, zinc and wheat.

More than $4.4 trillion have been wiped out from equity market values worldwide amid a sell-off that drove the MSCI All- Country World Index down more than 10 percent from this year’s high into a so-called correction. The U.S. added 85,000 jobs last month, leaving the 9.2 percent unemployment rate unchanged, according to economists surveyed before data today that will cap a week of economic reports that showed the recovery is slowing.

“Investors are coming to grips with how dramatically the global and U.S. economies have slowed in recent months,” Russ Koesterich, the San Francisco-based global chief investment strategist for the iShares unit of BlackRock Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. His firm oversees $3.66 trillion as the world’s largest asset manager. “What’s really troubling investors is that given the fiscal austerity in Europe and the U.S. and the fact that interest rates are already at zero, it’s not clear what steps governments can do to get us out of this.”
Stocks Slump

Just 12 of the MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s 1,018 members gained as the gauge extended its weekly loss to 8 percent. That will be the steepest one-week drop since October 2008, when credit markets froze following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brother Holdings Inc. a month earlier.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average sank 3.5 percent, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index plunged 4.8 percent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slumped 4.1 percent. Benchmark indexes for South Korea and Taiwan as well as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index also entered corrections today. Hutchison Whampoa Ltd. (13), controlled by Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing, dropped 8.5 percent after it reported first-half profit that missed analyst estimates.

The MSCI All-Country World Index dropped 1 percent, extending its drop from a May 2 high to 14 percent. Among the 24 developed nation markets tracked by Bloomberg, only Iceland’s benchmark stock gauge has eked out gains this year.

The S&P 500 dropped 60.27 points to 1,200.07 yesterday, taking its losses this week to 7.1 percent, following data that showed manufacturing expanded at the weakest pace in two years, spending unexpectedly fell and the services industries grew at the slowest pace since February 2010.
‘Panic Attack’

The S&P 500 may rise 40 to 50 points as markets are now “extremely oversold,” said Marc Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report. Still, prices won’t rise to new highs this year, he said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management’s emerging markets group, said today equities are “looking better” amid the turmoil roiling global markets.

“It’s a panic attack from fear that growth is dropping off a cliff,” said Prasad Patkar, who helps manage the equivalent of $1.7 billion at Sydney-based Platypus Asset Management Ltd. “There was an expectation that resolution of the U.S. debt- ceiling issue would trigger a relief rally. It looks like everyone forgot about the weakness in the underlying economy.”

Today’s payrolls figures will follow the June increase of 18,000 jobs, the smallest this year. Concern the recovery is faltering drove investors to seek refuge in Treasuries, sending 10-year yields down 22 basis points yesterday to 2.40 percent. Yields were little changed today.
Asia Bonds

Japan’s 10-year bond yields slid to as low as 0.985 percent, the least this year. Australia’s 10-year rate fell to 4.42 percent, a two-year low. The yield on South Korea’s 3.5 percent bonds due June 2014 fell 11 basis points to a seven-week low of 3.63 percent, according to prices from Korea Exchange Inc.

The Markit iTraxx Asia index of 50 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan rose 11.5 basis points to 135 basis points, according to Credit Agricole CIB. That will be its highest close since Aug. 31 last year and the biggest daily increase since May 25, 2010, according to prices from CMA, which is owned by CME Group Inc.

The Markit iTraxx Australia index rose 17.5 basis points to 141.5 basis points, according to Deutsche Bank AG. That’s on course for the highest close since June 10 last year and the biggest daily increase since May 19, 2010, according to CMA.
Yen, Aussie

The Dollar Index slipped 0.1 percent, retracing part of yesterday’s 1.7 percent rally. The U.S. currency traded at 78.58 yen from 78.89 yen yesterday, when Japan unilaterally sold its currency to stem gains. The greenback was at $1.4098 per euro, compared with $1.4092 yesterday.

The Australian dollar was little changed at $1.0476 after the Reserve Bank raised the outlook for inflation to 3.5 percent from a previous prediction of 3.25 percent. The central bank also forecast growth in 2011 will average 2 percent, down from its May 6 estimate of 3.25 percent.

Oil for September delivery fell 1.3 percent to $85.55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are dropping for a sixth straight day and have erased this year’s gains. Wheat dropped 1.7 percent to $7.135 a bushel, while corn retreated 1.4 percent to $6.92 a bushel. Copper for three-month delivery declined 0.8 percent to $9,285 a metric ton in London, while zinc fell 2.1 percent to $2,281.50 a ton, set for an eight-day plunge.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shiyin Chen in Singapore at schen37@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net




If you all have been slacking, now is the time to do hardwork.......if a recession happens, it's time to go shopping!!!!

Hope to see many familiar nicknames there =)

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  Loan-shark runner struck at 31 flats
Posted by: Musicwhiz - 03-08-2011, 07:41 AM - Forum: Others - No Replies

Wow, another very sad case. Don't get into debt just because you want to make that wedding day "extra" special!

Aug 3, 2011
Loan-shark runner struck at 31 flats

He gets 7 years' jail and 24 strokes for 2-week harassment spree
By Elena Chong

Soh splashed paint, wrote graffiti, set fires and chain-locked gates of flats.

A PROJECT manager who became a loan-shark runner spent two weeks splashing paint, setting fires, writing graffiti and chain-locking the gates of 31 flats belonging to debtors.

Soh Hann Kwang, 36, pleaded guilty to 11 counts of harassment and two of driving without a licence and insurance coverage.

Yesterday, he was sentenced to seven years' jail and 24 strokes of the cane for what he did to the flats in June; for the driving offence, he was banned from driving for a year.

A district court heard that he got into financial difficulties last August by splashing out on a wedding he could ill afford, and took out $7,500 in loans from two banks and $11,000 from a dozen licensed moneylenders.

In May, still financially stretched, he called a number on a namecard left on the windscreen of his wife's car, and borrowed $500 from an unlicensed moneylender named 'Cash'.

The following month, he borrowed $500 and $1,000 from two other unlicensed moneylenders.

When he could not repay these loans in early June, Cash, also known as Ah Boon, offered him a job as a runner to intimidate debtors into paying up.

Ah Boon's 'rate card' was as follows: $150 for setting fire to each unit, $70 for splashing paint and scribbling on the wall, and an extra $10 if a padlock was used in the harassment.

Soh, who was to 'work' from 10am to 7pm daily, accepted the job as he was afraid the loan sharks would harass his family.

The court heard that he drove his wife's car to various locations from Ang Mo Kio and Jurong to Sengkang for his 'job', even though he had no valid driving licence.

Each time he received a text message containing an address from Ah Boon, he would delete it and head there.

At the scene, he would use a marker pen to scribble 'O$P$' - loan-shark shorthand for 'owe money, pay money' - and the debtor's unit and cellphone number on the wall.

Then he would open a can of red or orange paint and splash its contents on the main door. Occasionally, he would either start a fire at the door or use a bicycle lock to secure the gate.

Soh was picked up by the police on June 14 during an islandwide operation against an unlicensed moneylending syndicate.

Ah Boon's identity has not been ascertained.

Soh could have been jailed for up to five years, fined up to $50,000 and caned up to six strokes on each charge of harassment.

Last year, harsher penalties were incorporated into the Moneylenders Act.

The number of unlicensed moneylending and harassment cases soared to a record high of 18,649 in 2009. Last year, the number fell by about 10 per cent to 16,833 cases.

elena@sph.com.sg

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  Beleaguered hairstylist 'not running away'
Posted by: Musicwhiz - 29-07-2011, 06:11 AM - Forum: Others - Replies (2)

There are some serious jokers in this world. This guy bluffs his customers and now seeks their pity? Please don't be a hypocrite!

Jul 29, 2011
Beleaguered hairstylist 'not running away'

Jonal Chong says he has no money for refunds, plans to reopen shop
By Daryl Chin

Mr Jonal Chong had earlier lied about having styled actress Nicole Kidman's hair. His shop in Orchard Central has been shut due to rental arrears. He also owes more than a thousand customers packages worth between $100 and $1,000 each. -- ST PHOTO: MALAVIKA SINGH
View more photos
TROUBLED hairstylist Jonal Chong is a contrite man at the end of his tether.

His salon in Orchard Central is locked up due to rental arrears, his reputation is in tatters after he lied about styling Nicole Kidman's tresses, and many customers believe him to have left in a hurry.

Despite this, the 48-year-old, who owes more than a thousand customers packages worth between $100 and $1,000 each, is staying put - and even plans to make a comeback by reopening his shop.

'Right now, I can take my barang barang (tools) personally to my client's house and provide hair-cutting services,' the beleaguered stylist told The Straits Times on Tuesday. 'That's all I can do. Don't ask me for a refund as I don't have the money, but I'm definitely not running away.'

The Consumers Association of Singapore said there have been 22 complaints and inquiries about him, up from nine last week.

Mr Chong is the managing director of his 1,900 sq ft salon, now called Jonah Choong Hair Couture. It opened in 2009 with the aim of providing 'lux services at affordable prices'. It was closed two weeks ago.

But Mr Chong's troubles began in earnest earlier this year after media reports exposed him for lying about having styled the A-list actress' hair. He later came clean.

'Regarding Nicole Kidman, I already said I was sorry so I hope people can move on,' he said. 'But the branding of the shop was tarnished and that affected my customers, which also made it difficult for me to survive,' he added, burying his head in his hands. Adding to Mr Chong's stress are his salon's high operating costs.

He said he pays $32,000 a month in rent to landlord Far East Organization. Another $30,000 goes to miscellaneous costs as well as the salaries of his staff of 10. This led to his shop falling 3 1/2 months in arrears. He also had to move out of his rented apartment in Cairnhill Residences two weeks ago, due to financial difficulties.

'This was the same day I came to work and discovered my salon shut with all my equipment inside, a changed lock and a notice on the grille,' he said. 'I was shocked.'

Since then, he has been running around trying to entice strangers, friends and acquaintances to become shareholders in his shop, but the going is tough.

'All my friends have run away because they are afraid I'll ask them for money,' he said, adding that he has lost more than 6kg since the latest saga began.

Mr Chong admitted that he could not give a deadline for when his shop would reopen, but said he was trying his best. He said negotiations with Far East Organization are ongoing.

Asked whether she will continue using the salon, customer Angel Pang, 25, an advertising executive said: 'Hopefully it will get even cheaper after this, so it works out for me.'

Human resources officer Karen Lim, 34, said: 'I'll go back once it's up again to use up the money already dunked in. I will not be renewing though, as I don't know when this might happen again.'

Mr Chong said he hoped to regain his customers' trust.

'Take pity on me and forgive me,' he said dejectedly.

darylc@sph.com.sg

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  Not even S$1.20? US dollar shrinks to new lows
Posted by: Musicwhiz - 28-07-2011, 05:14 AM - Forum: Others - Replies (2)

Business Times - 28 Jul 2011

Not even S$1.20? US dollar shrinks to new lows


Stalemate over debt ceiling hurting greenback; concerns arise over strong S$

By EMILYN YAP

(SINGAPORE) The US dollar slid further yesterday, breaking the psychologically key level of S$1.20 to hit S$1.1992 in morning trade, as it continued to suffer from the political gridlock over the US debt ceiling.

By 7pm, it had recovered to S$1.2021, but that was still a new year-low, according to Bloomberg data.

In the region, the greenback also fell to fresh troughs. One dollar bought 2.9493 Malaysian ringgit compared with over three ringgit just more than a week ago. Against the Indonesian rupiah, it cracked the 8,500 level to reach 8,484.

Safe haven currencies gained too as investors sought refuge in them. One dollar was worth just 0.8007 Swiss franc and 77.77 Japanese yen.

The US dollar's weakness surprised few, given the lack of any breakthrough in discussions between Democrats and Republicans when it comes to raising the US$14.3 trillion debt ceiling.

The Democrats are proposing cuts in government spending and an end to tax breaks and special deductions for the richest Americans and corporations; the Republicans are focusing mainly on spending cuts.

US President Barack Obama and Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives John Boehner both made televised speeches on Monday night to defend their proposals, but that only underscored the deep divide between the opposing parties.

Plans on the table may not even survive scrutiny. The Congressional Budget Office found yesterday that both parties' proposals would not reduce spending by the amounts expected. Mr Boehner was forced to postpone a vote on his measure.

'The US dollar is bearing the brunt of the US debt battle, particularly after few signs of conciliation between the parties involved,' said Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts in a note yesterday. 'We believe either solution may only be successful in implementing front-loaded spending cuts and may fail to prevent a downgrade,' they said, adding that ratings action would be negative for the US dollar.

While worries over the US government's ability to make upcoming interest payments have reigned, concerns about the strong Singapore dollar have surfaced closer to home. A rising Sing dollar makes Singapore's exports less cost competitive, though it helps to curb inflation by making imports cheaper.

'A combination of exchange rate appreciation and rising relative price levels are raising the risk that cost competitiveness is being eroded,' said Citi economist Kit Wei Zheng in a report on Tuesday.

But with the business cycle still in the expansion stage, and considering moderate growth and inflation in the country, 'this is arguably a deliberate choice of policy to lean against the wind', he added.

The government expects Singapore's GDP to grow by 5-7 per cent this year - a decent range - though that is now under review. Meanwhile, the official forecast for inflation this year has crept up to 4-5 per cent, from 3-4 per cent earlier.

Credit Suisse economist Wu Kun Lung pointed out that the Sing dollar's appreciation has been gradual and the impact 'should be manageable'. Meanwhile, other regional currencies have also strengthened against the US dollar, so the relative impact of the Sing dollar's rise may not be as big as it seems, he said.

It is not just exports that the market has its eyes on. CIMB research head Kenneth Ng said that another thing to watch is how the rising Sing dollar would affect the cost of doing business in Singapore versus Hong Kong, from multinational companies' point of view.

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  Jobs aplenty, but are we happy?
Posted by: Musicwhiz - 27-07-2011, 07:24 AM - Forum: Others - Replies (10)

I agree with the section in BOLD. I prefer to spend money on experiences such as concerts and day-outs with my family, rather than branded goods or cars. It makes me much happier and leaves me with sweet memories! Smile

Jul 27, 2011
THE ST INTERVIEW
Jobs aplenty, but are we happy?

NTU economist is keen to measure level of life satisfaction in S'pore
By Tan Hui Yee, CORRESPONDENT

DON'T worry, be happy, as the song goes, but as May's General Election showed, Singaporeans do worry, about everything from immigration to crowded trains. They have also increasingly questioned the costs of economic growth.

Enter Nanyang Technological University (NTU) economist Nattavudh Powdthavee, who has become something of a happiness expert over the past 10 years.

His use of the economist's tools of data gathering and number crunching allows him to quantify that elusive concept of happiness and identify just what factors in life contribute to it.

And the 33-year-old reckons the time is ripe for Singaporeans to come under this particular microscope.

He says the economy has developed to a stage where people think they can 'ease the foot off the pedal a bit and look after (themselves) in other areas'.

At first glance it would seem a no-brainer: Jobs are plentiful, increasing national wealth has delivered benefits in everything from education to housing, infrastructure, health services and so on.

Yet he is unsure if Singaporeans are indeed happier in times of economic growth. Surveys in the West show that happiness levels have 'remained stagnant' despite constant economic expansion since World War II.

The question is fast moving from the fringes of social policy to the centre. In May, for example, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development - normally a stickler for hard economic indicators - launched a 'happiness index' of sorts that looks into general satisfaction, security and work-life balance.

For economists like Dr Powdthavee, happiness is not some nebulous concept, but something that can be quantified through detailed surveys that track people's life satisfaction over time.

There are well-established methodologies to do this, he notes, where respondents are asked at various stages in their life - through marriage, divorce, parenthood and bereavement - to rate their life satisfaction on a scale of one to seven.

The numbers are then analysed to measure the impact of events like divorce or bereavement as well as various public policies on a person's level of happiness.

Finding the key to happiness need not be expensive, he stresses. 'Singapore conducts surveys all the time. They go to households and ask about their income. They can add one more question in these surveys (about how happy they are).'

The findings should be 'freely available' and 'built into political discourse' so that people are aware about what makes them happier, and what doesn't, he suggests.

His past studies show that happiness research often ends up debunking some long-held assumptions.

The economist, who joined NTU in January after spending 18 years studying and teaching in Britain, found that people whose loved ones die take on average two years to revert to being just as happy as they were before their loss.

He analysed British data with Warwick University economist Andrew Oswald in 2008 and found that someone experiencing the death of a partner would require on average the equivalent of £312,000 (S$615,400) of additional income in the first year after the loss to feel just as happy as he was before.

The quantification raised eyebrows, but he points out that the £312,000 figure far outweighs the compensation that British courts often award for deaths. The figure shows that losing a loved one can be devastating, even if it lasts for just a few years.

In 2009, he waded into a storm of controversy again when his piece discussing existing research that children do not make people happier was picked up by British media.

Generally, people become happier while expecting their child, but things go downhill in the first year after the child is born and their happiness levels never quite recover to their pre-parenthood days until the child is about five years old.

The piece earned him a torrent of abuse, but he stands by it. The research is robust, he says. 'When we ask about their happiness, we do not ask leading questions. We do not ask, 'Do children make you happy?' Most people say 'yes' to that. Instead, we ask, 'How happy are you on a scale of one to seven?' We ask you that before you have your children, and we ask you after you have your children.

'Bringing up children can be very hard work. There are good times, there can also be bad times. That's not surprising. What's surprising is that we tend to overestimate the positive impact of children on day-to-day pleasure.'

He says it is the 'focusing illusion' - how people tend to 'exaggerate the effect of whatever they're thinking about, when (they) are thinking about it' - that makes them think they cannot get over losing a partner or that children make them happy.

This means that if they are asked, 'Do children make you happy?', they tend to conjure up blissful images of David or Sarah running through a backyard, smiling for the first time, and say 'yes'. But ask them, 'How happy are you?, and the response will tend to be more neutral.

Dr Powdthavee, who is engaged, stresses he is by no means asking people to stop having children. 'Kids make your life meaningful even though they don't make you happy,' he says with a laugh.

Happiness, in that sense, is overrated. It should not be the means by which people - and governments - judge all their decisions. Doing so might open it to abuse by rogue governments, which might resort to short-term policies to 'make you happy today' at the cost of future well-being.

But happiness research does have practical implications in that it helps people decide what kind of trade-offs they want to make in their lives.

Commuting, for example, is an activity that people never mentally adapt to, unlike bereavement.

'If you commute the same way for 10 years, you don't adapt to it; you're just unhappy all the way through,' says Dr Powdthavee. 'Commuting is that kind of activity that requires your attention all the time. You think, 'Oh no, I am standing on this bus, it smells, this person's sweaty', every single day.'

But if people are asked to move to new, higher-paying jobs that would require a longer commute to work, most tend to say 'yes' if the pay hike is high enough.

'How much is high enough? We calculated that high enough means these people needed to be compensated a lot more than what they accepted in terms of the real job.'

All around the world, he notes, most people tend to overestimate what money can bring to them in terms of happiness. But here is the clincher: Money can buy happiness, but only if people know how to spend it wisely.

This means spending it on experiences, rather than accumulating goods merely to signify status or privilege, such as branded bags or cars.

'If you use money to buy your friends gifts or use it to fund a day out doing something fun, that could have a much greater impact on your happiness.'


Hence, he suggests the Singapore Government could make its people happier by encouraging better work-life balance and creating more experience-based activities.

Plugging into social life has great pay-offs, as his research shows.

Someone who is single would need to earn on average £200,000 more than his current annual income to achieve the same level of happiness as his counterpart enjoying his first year of marriage.

And a person who keeps to himself needs to earn on average £120,000 more a year to achieve the same level of satisfaction as someone who talks to his neighbours every day.

How exactly these equations might look like in Singapore is anybody's guess without a full-fledged study on the subject.

But increasingly, many societies around the world are starting to realise that happiness matters just as much as other indicators of progress. And Singapore might want to keep in step, says Dr Powdthavee.

'Happier people live longer. They're much healthier. They are likely to have a good social life in the future. And they tend to stay married for longer.

'But I guess living longer says it all.'

tanhy@sph.com.sg

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Finding the worth of love

THAI economist Nattavudh Powdthavee, 33, is a Nanyang Technological University assistant professor noted for his work on the economics of happiness.

He has conducted studies that found that the level of happiness that marriages bring is worth £200,000 (S$394,400) in their first year, and it takes on average two years for a person who has lost a loved one to regain the same level of happiness as before.

He wrote The Happiness Equation: The Surprising Economics Of Our Most Valuable Asset (2010); is co-founding editor of New Zealand-based The International Journal of Wellbeing; and is a research fellow at the German labour research institute IZA.

He earned his bachelor's in economics and management at London's Brunel University and a master's and doctorate at Warwick University.

He was a lecturer at York University before he relocated to Singapore in January to be closer to his Thailand-based fiancee.

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Why nobody's happier when everyone's richer

What are some of the most surprising findings about happiness?


A: The first and very famous one actually came from American Richard Easterlin, a professor of economics at the University of Southern California. He found that richer people are happier than poorer people. However, income growth increases the happiness of no one. It's a paradox: If rich people are happier than poorer people, how come when everybody becomes richer over time, happiness doesn't rise with it?

There are many explanations for that, one of which is that people care about relative status. I'm sure that people in Singapore as well as everyone else in the world do. But there's only so much status to go around. With every one winner, there's always one loser. So aggregate happiness doesn't increase with it.

Where else can we see this phenomenon?

A: Suppose you bought a car, a very nice Volkswagen. Then the next day, your neighbour buys a Ferrari. You were very happy the day before, but you are no longer now. In traditional economics, it shouldn't matter what other people do, but in reality we do care.

Another good example is in the workplace: Why is it that people refuse to leave early if their colleagues haven't left yet? We know that if we leave earlier than the other person, we will probably lose in the relative income hierarchy. And because we care about that, increasing income for all doesn't really lead to increasing happiness.

How do you measure and quantify happiness?

A: We ask you how happy you are on a scale of one to seven. This can be done through self-completed surveys because if people are interviewed, they want to please the interviewer, they want to say things that don't make them look so bad.

There are many ways to circumvent biases - now there are things measuring hypertension, blood pressure, cortisol or 'stress hormone' levels, which are much more objective but correlate very well with subjective happiness. These are good physiological indicators of how well we are. We know that being healthy has a huge impact on your well-being. When you feel that you are healthy, you tend to report very high happiness levels.

But health is a very broad thing. We tend to think in terms of physical health, but happiness is mental health.

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  The 15 Countries That Are Buried Under The Most Debt
Posted by: sgd - 26-07-2011, 12:30 AM - Forum: Others - Replies (5)

Source: Business Insider

Pssst ... click the slide show and see who ranks number 9 Confused

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  ETF risks need to be made clearer
Posted by: newborn1000 - 22-07-2011, 10:03 PM - Forum: Others - No Replies

ETF risks need to be made clearer

By JAMIE LEE

EXCHANGE-TRADED funds (ETFs) are blooming like mushrooms after rain. But their rapid growth and evolution have now prompted some regulators to consider if ETFs are really as safe as so claimed, particularly with the proliferation of ETFs that rely on synthetic replication.

While one should not be too quick to vilify synthetically replicated ETFs, it is increasingly clear that the marketing of such ETFs as being safe for retail investors deserves careful review, especially by regulators here.

And Singapore lags Hong Kong in flagging the risks of these ETFs to retail investors - a regulatory gap that may need to be narrowed, and soon.

UK fraud prosecutors have started to review how ETFs are being sold, said a recent Bloomberg report, amid fears by the UK's Financial Policy Committee that such funds could pose a new set of systemic risks. The Serious Fraud Office has started to review the ETF market because it sees 'similar characteristics to the collateralised debt obligations that helped spark the financial meltdown in 2008', Bloomberg noted.

Opaque and complex

UK's Financial Services Authority has gone even further to warn that some of the risks posted by synthetic ETFs are not suitable for retail investors. It is also looking to ban certain types of ETFs, which it says are veiled in 'opacity and complexity'.

Hong Kong has been proactive in its approach towards synthetically replicated ETFs, which track an index typically through derivatives. Late last year, Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission required all such ETFs to have a mark next to their stock names so that investors can quickly distinguish ETFs that are backed by physical securities - or funds buying stocks according to their weights on the index to replicate the index's performance - and those that rely on synthetic replication.

Hong Kong - which has the largest ETF market in Asia-Pacific by asset size - has also provided more information on synthetically replicated ETFs on the stock exchange's website, including the risks associated with such funds and how investors can spot them.

These are risks that have been debated in market circles.

Detractors claim that because synthetic or swap-based ETFs hold assets that could have absolutely nothing to do with the index they track, a poor choice of assets means greater counterparty risks.

In their defence, ETF providers point out that a fair number of ETFs here follow the UCITS iii (Undertakings for Collective Investments in Transferable Securities Directives) structures - structures imposed by European regulators - that limits counterparty exposure to 10 per cent.

The structure of such funds is also critical. An ETF that relies on a 'funded swap' structure, for example, is at a greater risk than funds that have an 'unfunded swap' structure. An ETF with a 'funded swap' structure would pass on cash to the swap counterparty, who provides the total return of the index replicated and posts collateral - but these are assets that the ETF does not own.

By contrast, an ETF using an 'unfunded swap' structure would buy securities and swap the profits from the performance of the basket of stocks against the total return of the replicated index. This means these assets belong to the fund and can be sold in the event of a default by the swap counterparty.

Cash-based ETFs, including those that hold a 'representative sampling' of the index, pose risks too as these funds are allowed to loan out or borrow securities, though some ETFs set limits on such transactions.

To be fair, ETF providers have made a lot of this information available on their websites. Investors who spend time digging around can find information about the collateral that various ETFs hold, for example.

Swap-based funds

But just because the information is available doesn't make it accessible. Critical information, such as the quality of assets held and the fund structure, for example, is often not aggregated in a single location. The presentation is often not based on a strict template - which hinders direct comparisons - and jargons are not fully explained.

All of which makes it difficult for retail investors to understand what they are really buying into.

The Singapore ETF market is heavily exposed to swap-based ETFs. The total assets under management (AUM) by swap-based ETFs stood at US$2.6 billion, more than triple that held by ETFs based on physical securities. Swap-based ETFs made up 78 per cent of total AUM, a Blackrock report in June showed.

Because Singapore's ETF market takes its cues from the European ETF market - which is a very heavy user of synthetic replication - more than 80 per cent of the ETFs found here are synthetically replicated.

Yet, while Hong Kong also has a big pool of swap-based ETFs, these make up just 35 per cent of US$28.2 billion in total AUM. In the US - the biggest ETF market globally - AUM of swap-based funds stand at 3 per cent of the total US$1.04 trillion. In Europe, that figure is at 44 per cent.

What is clear is that the ETF market is expected to grow, with global AUM expected to hit US$2 trillion by the end of next year, according to Blackrock.

ETFs do provide a good alternative for retail investors because of the low management fees. But their risks need to be made clearer to them.

What Hong Kong has done is significant: It has acknowledged the risks that swap-based ETFs pose, and has moved to make these more transparent so that retail investors are more equipped to make an informed choice. It's a path that Singapore regulators may want to follow too.

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  DBS Vickers Online Issues
Posted by: RBM - 22-07-2011, 10:23 AM - Forum: Others - Replies (19)

DBS Vickers Online "service" is not working this morning. I could not log on. DBS-V posted the following .............

QUOTE

Technical issue affecting Singapore market

Please be informed that there is a technical issue with our system currently. As a result, you may encounter difficulty with trading in the Singapore market. We are resolving the issue urgently.

We do apologise if we are unable to attend to your calls promptly because of the high calls volume to our hotline arising from the system issue.

DBS Vickers Online
22 Jul 2011

UNQUOTE

It seems that whenever there is slightly higher than normal activity, DBS-Vickers has a problem with its online service. I could not get through to my broker either! I had seen today as a selling opportunity.

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