North Korea

[HitandRun]

Japan and South Korea also does not want US to invade NK; the risk of collateral damage from missile attacks is high. 

I think the risk of damage from missile attacks is actually significantly lower than that from artillery attacks due to distance of Seoul from the border.

Deadly Artillery

Another point of consideration for China is that IF it does nothing and allow NK to strengthen its nuclear arsenal, SK and/or Japan might be forced/persuaded to acquire nuclear weapons for their own defence.

[specuvestor]

Seoul would be collateral damage, there is no win-win for SK unless reunification is considered a win

Depending on NK response, it is not impossible for SK to cross the DMZ to build a buffer zone like Israel did. I'm expecting NK 1m army to be as formidable as Iraq's Republican Guards, especially without air support. But like LKY said, NK has only one card and has played that card very well.

Watch THAAD. From purely capitalistic point of view to add a bit of relevance, the entire tech supply chain will be affected.

[corydorus]

NK will just fall like house of cards if South Korea with America backing is to strike. The problem is lack of Will.

.

[gzbkel]

The Atlantic has an interesting article about US's options for dealing with NK:

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc...th/528717/

From these conversations, I learned that the U.S. has four broad strategic options for dealing with North Korea and its burgeoning nuclear program.
1. Prevention: A crushing U.S. military strike to eliminate Pyongyang’s arsenals of mass destruction, take out its leadership, and destroy its military. It would end North Korea’s standoff with the United States and South Korea, as well as the Kim dynasty, once and for all.
2. Turning the screws: A limited conventional military attack—or more likely a continuing series of such attacks—using aerial and naval assets, and possibly including narrowly targeted Special Forces operations. These would have to be punishing enough to significantly damage North Korea’s capability—but small enough to avoid being perceived as the beginning of a preventive strike. The goal would be to leave Kim Jong Un in power, but force him to abandon his pursuit of nuclear ICBMs.

3. Decapitation: Removing Kim and his inner circle, most likely by assassination, and replacing the leadership with a more moderate regime willing to open North Korea to the rest of the world.
4. Acceptance: The hardest pill to swallow—acquiescing to Kim’s developing the weapons he wants, while continuing efforts to contain his ambition.

[BlueKelah]

In the late nineties, Pakistan managed to develop nuclear weapons. It is the only Muslim state with such capability.

By now, NK probably already has a big nuclear arsenal ready to go, they are only posturing at the moment. They also have plenty of funds as just like Australia, they have been making big bucks selling commodities like coal to China. Not to mention probably uranium as well from their mines.

Trump should just invite kju to a front row seat with Dennis rodman to watch Chicago bulls play, solve all the problem.

So long NK is careful and doesn't attack anyone, USA can only watch and talk.





Sent from Moto G5+ using Tapatalk

[gzbkel]

How a nuclear war in Korea could start, and how it might end

https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/...-might-end

[karlmarx]

High-altitude nuclear explosion test? That would be something...

[cyclone]

Kim Jong Un Puts America Within Striking Distance

By Daniel Ten Kate and Adrian Leung
Published: April 29, 2017 | Updated: August 10, 2017

The window to stop North Korea from being able to attack the U.S. with a nuclear bomb is closing fast.

U.S. defense analysts now believe North Korea has as many as 60 nuclear bombs, and the ability to put them on missiles. Kim Jong Un declared that the entire U.S. territory was within striking distance after his regime twice tested an intercontinental ballistic missile called the Hwasong-14 in July.

Responding to President Donald Trump’s vow to unleash “fire and fury” on Kim’s regime, North Korea said this week it was drawing up plans to fire a missile over Japan into waters off Guam, home to some of the most important U.S. military bases in the Pacific. South Korea warned Kim against such a test, while Japan’s defense minister said it would be legal to shoot it down.

More details in https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-...-missiles/

[specuvestor]

When you have 2 loose canons, nuclear canons at that, that cares more about their face / mouth

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/...87211.html

The buck is actually now thrown to China, peaceful containment or speed of a full war outbreak

[specuvestor]

^ I am afraid that US come to the conclusion that it's better to shed middle eastern / Korean blood than to be threatened by oil or nuke

Then the issue" is a unified Korea stable enough to be governed? Given the political instability of South Korea, adding in a North Korean population who may support their own political system adds strain. Furthermore, South Korea is now struggling economically, throw in the needs to equip/educate a North Korean population and provide them jobs to ensure social stability is going to be tough.

The solidarity of the Koreans rivals that of the Germans, if not exceeding it.

“If there’s going to be a war to stop him, it will be over there,” Graham continued. “If thousands die, they’re going to die over there. They’re not going to die over here — and he’s told me that to my face.”

https://www.vox.com/world/2017/8/1/16075...-korea-war